Well, here we are with about a day left to go and the Kickstarter campaign for Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen is well shy of its $800,000 funding goal. At this late date I think we can all agree that the project would need a Kickstarter Christmas miracle to fund.
A look at Kicktraq this morning shows the last 24 hours of the campaign faces a hill… well, a mountain… representing 46% of the funding goal.
And so it goes.
The campaign has been a mixed bag. On the downside, I think that the groundwork done by Brad McQuaid and his Visionary Realms team before they set off down the Kickstarter path was woefully inadequate. One does not simply *something something* into Kickstarter.
I also think (based on my 2014 prediction) that they asked for too much money. I know that the idea was to set the groundwork for other funding by showing that the project had legs, but asking for $500K and getting it (which I think they could have) would have been better than asking for $800K and not getting much beyond the half way point. There is also a tipping point after you hit your goal where you can open things up to other funding sources.
And I remain concerned about the focus of the project. A key statement early on was that this was not going to be an attempt to be all things to all people. But seeming acquiescence by Brad, both in the project stretch goals and the Reddit AMAs, to a variety of things I would consider out of scope for an initial release made me wonder if they could keep things on a single track. The problem in software development never involves with coming up with ideas. The problem is always paring things down to essentials so that the team can deliver quality.
But all was not bad.
I think that the overall message is one that a select group of players wanted to hear. I think there is room in the world for a niche MMORPG focused on grouping and group content in the TorilMUD and EverQuest tradition. (Though I had to walk away from forum discussions when the “EQ PvP, Best PvP” squad hunkered down to stay. Absolutely the wrong group of players for this, in my opinion.)
I think Brad handled the Reddit AMA’s well, aside from a couple of “I don’t see why not” answers to things I felt were really out of scope. (I will not get off the focus wagon, will I?) There were a lot of good answers to question about views and details about Pantheon. But I think the whole thing was best served by his answers around Vanguard, what happened there, and how things are being run differently with Pantheon.
And, finally, I think that the cross-promotion between Pantheon and Shroud of the Avatar that came at the halfway point of the campaign was brilliant. That was a really slick idea to find the cross-over appeal between two different projects.
The Respective Crests
Of course, once that was in play, any number of people wanted to know if Brad could work a similar deal with Chris Roberts to maybe get a boost from his Star Citizen funding success. I am not sure that would see the same sort of overlap of interests as Shroud of the Avatar and Patheon: Rise of the Fallen, and it did not seem likely to come about in any case.
In the end though, it wasn’t enough.
Aside from looking for an angel investor, what now?
Well, it looks like Visionary Realms is going to take on the funding effort themselves. They have updated their web site and have announced their post-Kickstarter plans.
The New Campaign
And there are some advantages to going this route. They are not beholden to Kickstarter and do not have to give them a cut. They are not hemmed in by a time limit. They can offer a wider variety of funding options. Even now Visionary Realms has a subscription option listed with special benefits.
Will you subscribe to this theory?
So the funding effort goes on.
The question is, will it have the same impact?
Despite the occasional pedantic view on the subject, the goal of funding efforts like this are not to obtain 100% of the money required to complete the project. The idea is to get enough initial funding to demonstrate that there is interest in your project so that you can get further investment. Brad McQuaid has said as much about Pantheon.
So Kickstarter is a funding exercise in part, but even more a marketing exercise. But if you fail the funding part of Kickstarter, how much is the marketing exercise constrained? And even if a company can turn around and go do their own fundraising effort post-Kickstarter, will that have the same impact?
And, the biggest question for me, how long will it take Visionary Realms be able to catch up to where they left off with Kickstarter and will people be as willing to pledge? Because they have lost a few valuable assets that Kickstarter provides.
The first is, of course, the Kickstarter name itself. People have a range of opinions about Kickstarter and the wisdom of giving people money through it, but they know what Kickstarter is and as a service it seems reasonably well respected. There will be no Kickstarter cachet to bring people to the table any more.
Then there is the time limit aspect of the campaign. While Visionary Realms won’t make their goal in the time frame, I would be willing to bet that the mere fact that there was a time limit got people to pledge. There is nothing like a deadline to get people to focus. Campaigns that succeed, or which are close to success, often have a large surge of pledges at the last minute.
Now though, there is no time limit. There is no boundary to make people get off the fence one way or another. I suspect that will hurt funding in the short term.
And then there is what I will call, for lack of a better term, the “Kickstarter Deal.” In the case of Brad McQuaid and Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen, the deal was that if he could raise $800,000, he would make this game happen. You can believe him or not, but that was what he was offering. So I put up some money along with about 3,000 other people. But the effort will fall shy of the mark, so none of us will end up paying out any money. Our pledge cost us nothing because the threshold for funding… the threshold at which Brad said he could make it happen… was not met.
Now that threshold is gone.
If I go over to the Visionary Realms web site and pledge $100 they have it that day, and if nobody else pledges I have just wasted my money. It is much easier to throw in some cash if you think you are part of a group that will meet the threshold for funding. But in the absence of that, I am probably not going to rush out on day one to give them some cash. I am much more likely to sit on my hands, to wait and see how things are going, before I think about donating.
While Kickstarter does not in anyway guarantee that a funded project will actually do what it says in the end, it does at least give the illusion of a concentration of pledges that, if a pre-determined threshold is met, will make the project possible. Unless I am missing something here, going to self-funding removes that aspect of the campaign.
So there we stand. The Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen Kickstarter will run out the clock in less than a day and will not meet its goal.
Did you pledge any money to the Kickstarter and will you, in turn, donate to the self-run funding campaign for the project?
Is this the beginning of the end, or just the end of the beginning?