Daily Archives: October 25, 2017

SuperData Research says Destiny 2 Killed on Consoles and PUBG Continues to Advance

It is that time of the month again when SuperData Research gives us their digital revenue numbers for the preceding month.  Now we can see what they had to say about September.

SuperData Research Top 10 – September 2017

Last month saw PlayerUnknown’s Battleground pass World of Warcraft on the revenue chart.  This month the popular battle royale title rose another notch, hitting fifth place and knocking longstanding top five title Crossfire down a peg.  World of Warcraft remains in sixth place while Divinity: Original Sin 2 broke into the list at number eight, suggesting that single player games might be more viable than EA seems to think.   That move pushed both Overwatch and CS:GO down a slot and left DOTA 2 off the list.

On the console side Destiny 2 topped the list.  The title just launched on Windows this week and will surely be on the PC top ten chart for October.

And then on the mobile end Candy Crush Saga moved up from ninth to sixth place while Pokemon Go fell off the chart again.

Finally, items noted on this month’s report:

  • Digital games revenue grows 15% worldwide in September. Players spent $8.3 billion across console, mobile and PC in September, up from $7.2 billion in the same month last year. Growth was underpinned by a 25% jump in console digital revenue on the back of rising download rates for new releases such as Destiny 2. This more than offset a double-digit declines in pay-to-play and significant drop in social revenue.
  • PLAYERUNKNOWN’s Battlegrounds has overtaken two titans of PC games—World of Warcraft and Crossfire—in September revenue.
  • Destiny 2 has the largest digital launch ever on console. Destiny 2’s highly-anticipated launch resulted in digital unit sales up significantly from Destiny 1 back in September 2014. This marks a new record for the most digital units sold by a console game within a single month, edging out the previous record holder Call of Duty: Black Ops 3.
  • FIFA and NBA 2K continue to expand their reach with new releases. The sports franchises show little signs of slowing down. FIFA 18 console digital units came in significantly up from FIFA 17 last September despite a later release date this year, while NBA 2K18 console sales also saw a healthy jump.
  • Divinity: Original Sin 2 builds on success of single player PC games. Larian Studio’s new RPG sold an impressive 660,000 digital units on PC during its launch month. This places it among other recent successful single-player-centric games such as Nier: Automata and Horizon Zero Dawn.

Fall Movie League – The Week of the Empty Screen

We are through week eight and into the back half of our Fantasy Movie League season now.

This week’s price list saw a range of options as anchors.

Boo! 2: A Madea Halloween    $411
Happy Death Day              $202
Only the Brave               $201
Geostorm                     $186
The Snowman                  $167
Blade Runner 2049            $128
The Foreigner                $105
It                           $57 
Same Kind of Different As Me $53
American Made                $50 
The Mountain Between Us      $49
Kingsman                     $47
LEGO Ninjago Movie           $42
My Little Pony               $35
Victoria & Abdul             $31

When I wrote up my projection for this week… or what passes for a projection anyway… I thought anything between Boo! 2 and Blade Runner 2049 could possibly be an anchor, though I felt that those two titles were the least likely to be so.  Boo! 2 seemed over-priced while Blade Runner 2049 has been a heart break of under performance since it launched.

After buying into Blade Runner 2049 heavily in Week 7 I was saying, “Won’t get fooled again!”

…nobody is going to convince me that seven screens of Blade Runner 2049 are a good idea after the current results.

-Me, just a week ago

And then, of course, the reviews and the projections for the weekend started showing up.  The reviews for The Snowman were especially biting, not that anybody let Geostorm off the hook either.  Those two and Boo! 2 made up a trifecta of red pen scores on Metacritic.

Only The Brave got good reviews but was expected to be a slow performer.  That left only Happy Death Day and Blade Runner 2049 without something to speak directly against them… aside from past performance.  But you know, there I was, sitting there thinking that if only Blade Runner could just drop less than 50% week over week this time it could be a contender.  All it really had to do was bring in about $8.5 million to make it a solid pick at that price.  Given the competition, that seemed like it could happen… I mean, if I still bought into that whole “slow burn” idea for Blade Runner.

I hemmed and hawed and changed up my picks as many times before the lockout last week as I have probably ever done.  I went back and forth, but in the end I doubled down on Blade Runner 2049.  It hurt me last week, surely it would make it up to me this week, right?  Seven screens of Blade Runner plus a screen of It was my pick.

My Fall Week Eight Picks

My alternate pick for the week, entered into my daughter’s account, was two Happy Death Day, two Geostorm, and four Same Kind of Different As Me.

With those locked I settled in to wait for the numbers to roll in.

Saturday looked bad.  Blade Runner 2049 was trending to just $6 million for the weekend.  Meanwhile, nobody seemed to have paid attention to reviews, at least in the case of Boo! 2 and Geostorm, as both were booming.  But both The Snowman and Only The Brave seemed to be falling behind expectations.  A Geostorm heavy pick seemed to be the optimum.

People just don’t pay attention to reviews any more.

But I refer to Saturday as the day of false hope for a reason.  The projections you get are only based off of Friday night and more than a few times I have seemed to have a winning pick on Saturday, only to find that the update projects and final tally go a different direction.

And it was true that, in the end, Blade Runner 2049 revived a bit from its Saturday estimate.  My daughter and I went to see it, which I am sure helped a little.  But the winning pick of the week was something of an anomaly, being five screens of Geostorm, two screens of Victoria & Abdul, and one blank screen.  It was nearly two screens of My Little Pony and a blank screen, but Victoria overcame the ponies in the end.  Either way though, the winning combo required you to take a $2 million hit off the bat by leaving a screen blank.

Fall Week Eight Perfect Pick

I am not sure I could ever quite make it that far in dedication to my pick.  But for 37 people, leaving a screen empty was no big deal, and they all got $85,789,110 for their effort. (There was also a blank screen contingent that went with My Little Pony rather than Victoria & Abdul, and which would take the prize was a near run thing.)

Fortunately… for some of us… nobody in the Meta League got the perfect pick or anything close to it really.  A few people picked one screen of Geostorm and that was it, leaving the weekly scores looking like this:

  1. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $57,247,405
  2. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $56,324,221
  3. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $55,693,800
  4. Elly’s Elemental E-Plex (M) – $55,527,354
  5. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $55,048,267
  6. Wilhelm’s Films from New Eden – $54,923,720
  7. Kraut Screens (T) – $54,056,029
  8. The Filthy Fleapit (T) – $52,247,686
  9. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $51,441,248
  10. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $50,943,134
  11. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $39,623,861
  12. I HAS MOVIES (T) – $36,059,024
  13. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $34,968,514

Meta League Legend:

  • TAGN Movie Obsession – players from it marked with a (T)
  • MCats Multiplex – players from it marked with an (M)

There was not a lot of white space between first and tenth place on that list, spanning less than seven million dollars, with only Logan, Darren, and Isey paying the price for supporting their local firefighters.

With that most people advanced their totals in lock-step, neither gaining nor falling back, save for the aforementioned trio.

  1. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $653,583,626
  2. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $637,278,428
  3. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $603,568,404
  4. Elly’s Elemental E-Plex (M) – $593,435,076
  5. Wilhelm’s Films from New Eden – $578,498,941
  6. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $578,286,485
  7. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $577,746,884
  8. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $555,824,640
  9. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $551,469,039
  10. The Filthy Fleapit (T) – $491,127,342
  11. Kraut Screens (T) – $469,577,629
  12. I HAS MOVIES (T) – $462,053,264
  13. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $294,388,080

Corr remains out in front of the overall league, with Aure remaining a ways behind waiting for him to slip, while SynCaine and I remain neck and neck in the TAGN league.  A reminder that those past seventh place started late, save for Isey.  Pak though seems to be taking the one week handicap in stride and looks poised to pass Logan soon.

And so we face week nine, the weekend before Halloween.  Will people go to parties or the movies this coming weekend?

Jigsaw                        $277
Boo! 2: A Madea Halloween     $214
Subrubicon                    $150
Geostorm                      $126
Happy Death Day               $90
Thank You for Your Service    $89
Blade Runner 2049             $67
Only the Brave                $59
The Foreigner                 $55
It                            $38
American Made                 $31
Kingsman                      $29
Same Kind of Different As Me  $27
Victoria & Abdul              $27
The Snowman                   $26

The Mountain Between Us, LEGO Ninjago, and My Little Pony dropped off this week, replaced by the Saw revival Jigsaw, the Clooney/Coen brothers flick Suburbicon, and PTSD tale Thank You for Your Service.

For anchors you can build off of Jigsaw, Boo! 2, Suburbicon, or Geostorm, but I don’t have any sort of feel for which one might be well placed.  None of them seem likely to bring in big bucks.  Jigsaw, returning to an over played cult classic, might have some play due to Halloween I suppose.  The Coen brothers have made some great stuff, but they tend to be small market, film festival fare, even with big names headlining, so I am not sure how much pull Matt Damon will have with Suburbicon.  Meanwhile Boo! 2 and Geostorm are both in their second weeks, so may be spent forces.

My gut at this end of the week (Monday night as I write this) is to load up on Suburbicon and then figure out what low end fillers seem likely to exceed expectations… and to try not to mix in wish fulfillment with thoughts like, “If Blade Runner could just do…” when picking.  Replicants have let me down enough already.

The research vault seems to indicate that more people are jumping on Jigsaw however, and there is a claim in Chatter that no Saw movie has ever opened for less than $18 million on its first weekend.  If true, Jigsaw is very under priced.   We shall see.

Also, as a bonus, FML is having another four week contest league with a $1,000 prize for the winner.  You might as well join if you’re playing.  Click on the red banner currently on the site to get in on it.