Fall Movie League – Winners Edition

Here we are at the last post for the Fall 2017 run of our Fantasy Movie League.

This, the thirteenth and final week of the Fall season, was the last chance for people to jockey for position, and with a new Disney Pixar title hitting theaters, there was the possibility of some movement in the final ranking.  The lineup for the week was:

Coco                           $716 
Justice League                 $534
Wonder                         $298
Thor: Ragnarok                 $206
Daddy's Home 2                 $143
Murder on the Orient Express   $128
Roman J. Israel, Esq.          $102
The Star                       $96
Bad Moms Christmas             $70
The Man Who Invented Christmas $68
Three Billboards               $51
Lady Bird                      $49
Jigsaw                         $7
Loving Vincent                 $6
Blade Runner 2049              $6

Projections for the Pixar title Coco seemed decent, but not enough to support that price in light of other options.  So after that mad minute first Monday pick, where I always anchor on the film that is going to top the box office, I spent my time exploring other options and “what if” scenarios.  Justice League and Wonder played out in some of my plans.

Then on Wednesday I saw a couple of articles projecting Coco to run past $70 million.  At that run rate Coco was suddenly very viable and I went back to building a line up anchored on that, deciding to also bet heavily on Lady Bird due to the positive social media buzz it seemed to be getting.

Then in the FML Slack channel Ben curbed my enthusiasm by pointing out that those $70 million and up projections were for the entire week, as Coco opened up in the US on Tuesday, and not for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday time frame that would count for the FML league.  Damn press not taking my needs into account.

Anyway, that put Coco back down at maybe $50 million again and I told myself I needed to go back and redo my lineup.  And then Thanksgiving came, which we host at our house, and all of the fun and work that goes with that and the next time I thought about FML was on Friday morning at about a quarter to ten, less than an hour after the picks were locked, but it might as well have been forever since I was stuck with where I had left things on Wednesday.

My Fall Week Thirteen Picks

So my hope was that Coco would do much better than expected.

It did not, just passing the $50 million mark expected of it.

Meanwhile, the winning bet of the week was Murder on the Orient Express, which got the best price/performance nod and was the anchor film for the perfect pick of the week.

Fall Week Thirteen Perfect Pick

542 players got the perfect pick this week, which is a sizable number and makes me wonder why I didn’t at least see that as an option.

Amongst those with the perfect pick was Corr, thus cementing his win in the MCats League and the overall Meta League.  The scores for the week for the Meta League were:

  1. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $118,127,443
  2. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $110,643,594
  3. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $110,643,594
  4. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $110,643,594
  5. The Filthy Fleapit (T) – $89,095,650
  6. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $89,095,650
  7. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $82,679,441
  8. Elly’s Elemental E-Plex (M) – $78,853,690
  9. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $78,853,690
  10. Kraut Screens (T) – $77,042,620
  11. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $76,819,285
  12. Wilhelm’s Films from New Eden – $71,832,620
  13. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $70,520,361
  14. I HAS MOVIES (T) – $69,468,295
  • TAGN Movie Obsession – players from it marked with a (T)
  • MCats Multiplex – players from it marked with an (M)

There is a new name on the list, Po Huit, who joined in for the next season, but got in a pick for week thirteen and won the week in the TAGN league, so I figured I had better mention him.

Meanwhile, the bottom three on the list are all people who anchored on Coco.  That was clearly the bad pick of the week.

With week thirteen complete, the final scores for the Fall Meta League are:

  1. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $1,241,295,127
  2. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $1,181,566,118
  3. Elly’s Elemental E-Plex (M) – $1,150,719,925
  4. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $1,149,644,649
  5. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $1,122,285,136
  6. Wilhelm’s Films from New Eden – $1,113,910,654
  7. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $1,084,359,341
  8. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $1,011,733,999
  9. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $995,906,854
  10. Kraut Screens (T) – $871,754,429
  11. The Filthy Fleapit (T) – $871,715,649
  12. I HAS MOVIES (T) – $842,656,155
  13. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $717,236,170

As expected for the last few weeks, Corr came out on top for the overall Meta League and also won 5 of 13 weeks in the MCats League.

Despite being down in 6th place I managed to eke out a win in the TAGN League after weeks of battling for the first spot with SynCaine.  However, I only came out as the league winner once during the season, while SynCaine took the top spot five times.  Wonder week and the huge win for me there sank him.

And I doubt I would have been in first place had Pak not started a week late.  He won 4 of 13 weeks in the TAGN League and would have no doubt come in first in the league if he had been there for the initial week.  The gap between us was a mere $29 million and he surely would have done better than that on week one.  I feel like there should be a Roger Marris asterisk next to my win.

So that is the end of the Fall season.  Congrats to Corr, the overall winner, and everybody who managed to win a week or even managed to play every week.  Just remembering to get in and make your picks is half the battle sometimes.

There will be a Winter league.  My plans are to do weekly posts for that as well.  And, after Pak and Po Huit soundly thrash me in that venture, to take the Spring season off in order to feel fresh for another run at the Summer blockbuster season.

In order to keep the season separated there will be a second post today with the initial movie lineup and some comments about what is to come.  Thank you for playing!

3 thoughts on “Fall Movie League – Winners Edition

  1. Mike Ofner

    Hey this is Pak – thanks for having me in the league. I’ll continue into the next one. I got pretty lucky this season and have enjoyed your writeups immensely. Good luck to you in Winter!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. anypo8

    Finally decided to make time to try this. My wife is joining us too. Doubt I’ll be thrashing anybody, but it was nice to get some beginner’s luck and turn in a good “warm-up” week. My tool had the Perfect Pick, but I talked myself out of it.

    Speaking of which, my tool (which I’m moving to http://github.com/PoHuit/fml for probably-stupid opsec reasons) now does “ensemble probabilities”: you can give several values for movies, with a percentage probability of hitting each, and it will try to figure out a statistically optimal pick.

    Thanks once again to Wilhelm for running and blogging this. On to next season! (I’m not yet convinced that Murder on the Orient Express isn’t still underpriced relative to the field. We shall see.)


  3. Isey

    I’m still going to play, and just going to “wing it” on feelings and favorites every week. Not because it worked well for me or anything, but because it’s a good qualifier when compared to others who run projections and pay attention to early reviews, etc.


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