We are back for a new season of Fantasy Movie League, the Spring Season which, like spring training in baseball, is a warm up for the real event over the summer.
I’m sure my hastily mocked up seasonal logo will give somebody a brain aneurysm, but it is what I have. You can email me something better if it is killing you.
While the spring season may pale a bit when compared to the monster releases of summer, there are still some big titles coming up in the next thirteen weeks. Those include:
- A Wrinkle in Time
- Tomb Raider
- Pacific Rim Uprising
- Avengers: Infinity War
The next Star Wars story, Solo, isn’t coming until the Memorial Day opening of the summer blockbuster season, but there are some interesting items on the list beyond what I have there. The dominance of Black Panther will fade, the Oscars will pass, and we’ll be knee deep in strange new films.
But that is all in the future. We have to get through week one first, and the lineup looks like this.
Black Panther (SAT) $351 Black Panther (SUN) $263 Black Panther (FRI) $205 Red Sparrow $176 Deathwish $167 Game Night $97 Peter Rabbit $94 Annihilation $53 Jumanji $42 Fifty Shades Freed $30 The Greatest Showman $25 Every Day $17 Three Billboards $17 The 15:17 to Paris $17 The Shape of Water $15
For a third week running Black Panther is expected to dominate to such an extent that it is once again divided up into individual days. Obvious anchor is obvious.
Joining the list this week are Red Sparrow and Deathwish featuring Jennifer Lawrence and Bruce Willis respectively.
The remake of Deathwish hopes to revive the Charles Bronson classic. However the original came from a time of chaos and perceived lawlessness where we wanted vigilantes like Paul Kersey and rogue cops like Harry Callaghan to set things right. In the current moment of gun violence I’m not sure how well that will resonate. But it is Bruce Willis and I’ll watch any crappy movie he shows up in.
Likewise, I’ll watch anything with Jennifer Lawrence in it… I’ll watch her sell mops… though for somewhat different reasons. Also, she looks good with bangs. Take that Zooey Deschanel! Also anything that has a hint of a return to the cold war reality when we all accepted the Russians were up to no good works for me.
But will either do well enough to make them viable alternatives to even a single day Black Panther? The pricing will tell I suppose.
And then there is the rest of the list, which are all too low priced to anchor alone. Three Billboards, having won a few more awards, returns to the list in the run up to Oscars this coming weekend, but is down there in the cheap seats. Meanwhile, to my ongoing surprise, Jumanji is still holding its own mid-pack. I might have to go see this movie that will not fall from the list.
Anyway, I’m leaning towards Red Sparrow as an anchor, but that might not be coming from the logical part of my brain.
And, as a review for old hands and those new to the league, here is a list of sites and tool I’ve been known to haunt in search of box office forecasts.
- Moovee Picker (tool for calculating your FML picks with some estimates)
- Movie Calculator (roll your own estimates, but gives you more options)
- Po Huit’s Python Tool (if you want to get your picks from the command line)
- Box Office Mojo (has the theater counts by Thursday afternoon)
- Box Office Pro (pretty solid on forecats)
- Variety Film (comically bad at forecasts, but will tell you what the studio thinks)
- The Numbers (current and historical box office results)
- Deadline Box Office (go here on Friday morning for the Thursday night preview results)
- Box Office Report (more predictions)
- Box Office Guru (forecast column on Thursdays)
- Movie Web (when you want a forecast that looks different than the others)
Good luck in the coming season.