Spring Movie League – It’s All in the Filler

With week seven in the read view mirror we are now past the half way point for our Spring Fantasy Movie League.

For week seven we had a few new films in the lineup, which looked like this.

Rampage                      $535 
A Quiet Place                $361
Truth or Dare                $207 
Ready Player One             $167 
Blockers                     $147
Isle of Dogs                 $105
Black Panther                $74 
I Can Only Imagine           $62 
Tyler Perry's Acrimony       $52
Chappaquiddick               $47
Sherlock Gnomes              $46
The Miracle Season           $29
Pacific Rim                  $27
A Wrinkle in Time            $25
Love Simon                   $18

However, not very far into the week it started to become clear that the anchor of choice was going to be A Quiet Place.  Ticket sales over the course of the week, good reviews, and good word of mouth seemed to indicate that it would out perform its pricing for the week.

At the top of the price list was Rampage, which had a long range forecast of about $31 million.  But it seemed like A Quiet Place would do that much as well, and you could have two AQP as your anchor.

Meanwhile Truth or Dare felt to me like it was held back on a few levels.  It was a horror film coming in the shadow of A Quiet Place.  It was also a teen film facing competition from Blockers.  And it really didn’t have a huge name draw in the cast.

So with two screens of A Quiet Place locked in, it came down to the filler screens.  That is always a gamble because at the low end of the price range a shift of a $100K can make all the difference.

In the end I opted for 2x A Quiet Place, 3x I Can Only Imagine, 1x Acrimony, and 2x Love Simon.

Spring Week Seven – My Picks

This was mostly on gut because Imagine and Simon both had a record of dropping less than expected week over week, while Acrimony happened to fit nicely in the middle, leaving me with just $4 left over.

When lockout came on Friday I found myself in good company on the anchor picks.  And with the first estimates on Saturday morning A Quiet Place was in as the best performer, while Corr had the perfect pick.

But as I say over and over, Saturday is a day of false hope, and having the perfect pick on Saturday when the filler screens were going to make or break you made it even more so.

Sunday however threw things for a spin.  Truth or Dare, performing better than I expected, muscled in and took over the best performer spot, with four screens of it being the anchor for the perfect pick.  Suddenly Skar, who had anchored on one screen of AQP and two screens of Truth or Dare was leading the pack in the Meta League.

But Truth or Dare was ahead by just the width of a shadow and by the time the final numbers started coming in A Quiet Place was back on top as best performer.  The perfect pick ended up being 2x A Quiet Place, 2x Black Panther, 1x Acrimony, 2x The Miracle Season, 1x Love Simon.

Spring Week Seven – Perfect Pick

It is unusual for a winning lineup to have five different titles in it and the general recommendation is to try to keep it to three or four at most.  But when the anchor is also the best performer it is a matter of getting the most out of the filler no matter what.  Nobody in the Meta League got the perfect pick this week.

That left the scores for the week looking like:

  1. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $90,454,671
  2. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $90,348,718
  3. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $89,790,581
  4. Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $88,138,888
  5. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $87,576,863
  6. Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $87,576,863
  7. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $87,453,970
  8. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $87,451,105
  9. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $87,016,918
  10. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $84,839,318
  11. I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $84,368,064
  12. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $84,368,064
  13. DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $82,681,813
  14. JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $82,681,813
  15. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $79,519,219
  16. Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $73,102,608
  17. Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $72,416,392
  18. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $71,851,296
  19. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $69,562,268
  20. Joanie’s Joint (T) – $69,183,935
  21. Kraut Screens (T) – $68,968,210
  22. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $65,658,324

The Meta League Legend:

  • TAGN Movie Obsession – players from it marked with a (T)
  • MCats Multiplex – players from it marked with an (M)

SynCaine topped the Meta League this week, though not by much, with Biyondios just $105K behind him.  Corr missed out on his perfect pick and ended up in third place, leading the MCats League.  Then there was Skar, on top on Sunday, but back in 10th place on Monday.  So it goes.

The pack was very close in score this week, which did not make for much change in the season rankings.

  1. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $687,562,198
  2. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $682,836,540
  3. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $663,652,472
  4. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $645,662,309
  5. Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $633,592,608
  6. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $632,530,977
  7. Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $622,580,794
  8. Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $619,149,976
  9. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $614,081,399
  10. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $613,788,104
  11. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $605,152,623
  12. Joanie’s Joint (T) – $582,529,067
  13. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $558,462,207
  14. I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $538,787,711
  15. Kraut Screens (T) – $536,872,905
  16. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $525,348,454
  17. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $512,340,200
  18. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $500,346,633
  19. DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $496,766,130
  20. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $486,862,102
  21. JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $426,892,424
  22. Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $414,409,827

Ben remained on top, with the gap between him and Po shrinking ever so slightly.  Otherwise nobody really pulled much in the way of distance on anybody this time around.

That leads us to week eight and the back half of the season.  The lineup for the week looks like this:

 A Quiet Place            $361
 Rampage                  $258
 I Feel Pretty            $251
 Truth or Dare            $126
 Blockers                 $98
 Ready Player One         $95
 Super Troopers 2         $84
 Black Panther            $72
 Traffik                  $68
 Isle of Dogs             $47
 I Can Only Imagine       $33
 Tyler Perry's Acrimony   $26
 Chappaquiddick           $25
 The Miracle Season       $19
 Sherlock Gnomes          $18

Dropping from the lineup are Pacific Rim, A Wrinkle in Time, and Love Simon.

Replacing them we have I Feel Pretty, Traffik, and Super Troopers 2.

I Feel Pretty is an Amy Schumer vehicle and I would say that it would probably do as well as those tend to do, except for some negative reactions to the trailer.  That may stunt its numbers for the weekend.  So I don’t think it is going to be a break out hit, and neither does the pricing for the week, which puts it behind A Quiet Place, going into its third week, and Rampage, going into its second.

Traffik is not the remake of the movie Traffic, which was a remake of the UK mini-series Traffik, that I thought it might be just from the title.  More is the pity, as I think that might have been a better plan.  Instead it is a new film with no big names showing up mid-pack.

And then there is Super Troopers 2.

What do you do when somebody makes a sequel… or, in this case a prequel… to a cult classic?  I mean, I love meow some Super Troopers on any Friday night after a few beers.  But can you make magic twice?  Could you?  Should you?  Would you?

I was thinking no, until I read the premise over on Wikipedia.  This represents the parents of the group in the original, back in the 70s, with even longer hair and mightier mustaches.  Also, to get it into production they had to crowd source it with an Indiegogo campaign which raised more than they expected and got the word out early that the film was coming.  That means there is a pre-set audience that has been waiting for this week for quite a while.  Not a Star Wars sized audience to be sure, but probably bigger than we expect.

So I am going to declare that this week will be the polar opposite of last week.

Last week you knew the anchors, you just had to figure out the filler.  This week I calling Super Troopers 2 as the filler in the perfect pick.  You just need to figure out how to anchor a lineup with five or six screens of the Super Troopers 2.  Get on it right meow!

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