Spring Movie League – Who is Laughing Meow?

Week eight of our Spring Fantasy Movie League saw a surprise that was no surprise at all I guess.

Well, it was no surprise if you believed my post from last week where I was declaring for Super Troopers 2.  The lineup for the week looked like this:

 A Quiet Place            $361
 Rampage                  $258
 I Feel Pretty            $251
 Truth or Dare            $126
 Blockers                 $98
 Ready Player One         $95
 Super Troopers 2         $84
 Black Panther            $72
 Traffik                  $68
 Isle of Dogs             $47
 I Can Only Imagine       $33
 Tyler Perry's Acrimony   $26
 Chappaquiddick           $25
 The Miracle Season       $19
 Sherlock Gnomes          $18

On Monday night when I wrote my post the long range forecast for ST2 was just $5 million, but that felt like too little even then.  I started my estimates thinking that maybe $7 million would be a more likely number.

And as the week moved along each new estimate that came out seemed to move higher and higher, capping on Thursday with Box Office Report calling the film at $11.8 million over the weekend.

Meanwhile I Feel Pretty didn’t seem to be getting much love, hovering around $15-17 million in the estimates.  Not a bad number, but not something that would top the week.  It could, however, be a film to consider since it still seemed likely to be worth more in your lineup than ST2.

On Tuesday I thought I was being clever and going with 1x A Quiet Place and 7x Super Troopers 2.  It seemed like a bit of a risk, but being back in the pack I figured I should go all in on ST2 in case it went big.

Clever on Tuesday seemed pretty obvious on Thursday, and when the preview numbers came out on Friday morning, with ST2 pulling in $1.35 million to I Feel Pretty’s $1 million, anybody on the fence knew which way to jump.  It wasn’t exactly like the opening week for Baby Driver last summer, but it was reminiscent.

Spring Week Eight – My Picks

My clever pick became the most popular pick, with 402 of the Top 500 cineplexes going with my lineup.  Six of Seven people in the MCats League went with that pick, as did three people in the TAGN League.  And outside of that, the weekly summary email from FML said that a lot of other people played that pick.

Dude, we hit a record this week. 2367 played the same thing! That’s the most since, like… ever. EVER! Do you understand that?!?!?! Ever! I don’t think you’re getting this. Like, there’s NEVER been a Cineplex more played than “A Quiet Place” x1/”Super Troopers 2″ x7.

I was so clever I was in the biggest pick pack ever.

But with the first weekend estimates on Saturday, that lineup was the perfect pick, a position it held onto with the Sunday estimates.  And it was still the perfect pick when the final numbers came in Monday afternoon.

Spring Week Eight – Perfect Pick

People who hedged their bets with some films expected to do better, like Truth or Dare, ended up disappointed as Super Troopers 2 exceeded even some of the crazy optimistic estimates to rake in $15.18 million.  With the $2 million per screen best performer bonus, a screen of Super Troopers 2 was worth more than a screen of I Feel Pretty, which managed just over $16 million for the weekend.  It was the fourth best performer for the weekend.

Basically, the more screens of ST2 you had, the better you did.  That was the one and only filler worth having so the choice, as I said last week, was one of anchors.  The problem was that to max our ST2 you really only had one anchor choice, A Quiet Place.

Theoretically Rampage could have been the pick.  It came in close to AQP.  The problem was that it was priced low enough that it left too much money on the table, so people felt the need to spend that.  So people who went with Rampage tended to have two screens of that which left room for only 5x ST2 and a lesser filler.  You didn’t get killed if you went that route, but you were out of the running for first.

Anyway, the dominance of Super Troopers 2 left the Meta League looking like this:

  1. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $146,183,177
  2. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $146,183,177
  3. Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $146,183,177
  4. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $146,183,177
  5. Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $146,183,177
  6. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $146,183,177
  7. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $146,183,177
  8. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $146,183,177
  9. Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $136,301,586
  10. DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $131,794,978
  11. Kraut Screens (T) – $131,794,978
  12. JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $130,977,463
  13. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $129,558,341
  14. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $129,558,341
  15. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $129,558,341
  16. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $122,901,183
  17. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $112,201,065
  18. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $109,221,138
  19. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $72,339,442
  20. Joanie’s Joint (T) – $62,043,617
  21. I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $61,755,838
  22. Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $44,881,286

The Meta League Legend:

  • TAGN Movie Obsession – players from it marked with a (T)
  • MCats Multiplex – players from it marked with an (M)

And there we have it, an 8-way tie for first place.  One of those weeks.  The new tie breaker method was used to pick who won the week.  With the Sunday estimates I was in 15th place on that front and winning both leagues, but come the final numbers I fell back about 500 places overall and dropped to second in both of our leagues.  Oh well.

For everybody else, the more screens of ST2 you went with, the higher up you were, with the bottom three places reserved for those who went with no screens of this week’s darling.

That left the season scores looking like this:

  1. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $833,745,375
  2. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $812,394,881
  3. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $809,835,649
  4. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $778,714,154
  5. Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $769,894,194
  6. Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $768,763,971
  7. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $768,563,492
  8. Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $765,333,153
  9. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $760,264,576
  10. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $759,971,281
  11. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $751,335,800
  12. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $688,020,548
  13. Kraut Screens (T) – $668,667,883
  14. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $654,906,795
  15. Joanie’s Joint (T) – $644,572,684
  16. DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $628,561,108
  17. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $624,541,265
  18. I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $600,543,549
  19. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $596,083,240
  20. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $572,686,075
  21. JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $557,869,887
  22. Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $459,291,113

Not a lot of change at the top half of the list.  Ben pulled a little further away from Po, while Biyondios closed in on second place.  After that is Corr and then a whole group of us who could end up in fifth position, we’re all so close in score.

The bottom half of the list though… as I said, if you didn’t pick any screens of Super Troopers 2 then you suffered.  Ride the wave or get swamped.

So there we are.  But the age of Super Troopers 2 is over.  It was a crowd-funded, front loaded run, with half of its weekend revenue coming from Thursday night previews (which featured a number of Super Troopers & Super Troopers 2 double features) and the Friday night box office.  I expect it will fade more than 50% week over week along with the usual price punishment that run-away best performers tend to get.

Instead, this week is all about the Marvel universe, with Avengers: Infinity Wars, a film that ropes in what feels like every member of said universe that has a big screen success in one of the most expensive films ever produced.  So it will be on a lot of screens.  The price list for week nine looks like this:

Avengers FRI       $620
Avengers SAT       $411
Avengers SUN       $334
A Quiet Place      $70
Rampage            $55
I Feel Pretty      $47 
Super Troopers 2   $33
Black Panther      $32
Truth or Dare      $21
Blockers           $21
Ready Player One   $21
Isle of Dogs       $13
Traffik            $11
I Can Only Imagine $8
Chappaquiddick     $6

Avengers: Infinity Wars is the only new film on the list, but it is expected to do something in the neighborhood of $250 million over the three day weekend, so it is split into three, pushing Tyler Perry’s Acrimony , The Miracle Season, and Sherlock Gnomes off the list this week.  I won’t miss the gnomes, they under performed every time I picked them.

So this week we’re back to the anchors being the most important aspect of your line up.  With as much as $250 million on the line you want as much Avengers as you can get, which pretty much means going with Friday/Sunday or Saturday/Saturday as your anchors.  To my mind any other pick leaves too much on the table.

When it comes to filler, you can make either of those picks without leaving an empty screen as due to the scale of Avengers this week everything else fades into insignificance.  We have a $6 option this week with Chappaquiddick, so there should be no empty screens.

But also means that all but maybe the bottom four filler options are off the table as well.  I guess I could come up with a scenario where picking A Quiet Place would be worth a couple empty screens, but I need to think hard on that.

Anyway, another week another puzzle to solve.  We’ll see if 2,367 people get it dead on again this week.

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