Spring Movie League – To Infinity and Beyond!

Week nine, a huge week for our Spring Fantasy Movie League, has wrapped up.

The list of films on the menu for the week had a decided Marvel theme.

Avengers FRI       $620
Avengers SAT       $411
Avengers SUN       $334
A Quiet Place      $70
Rampage            $55
I Feel Pretty      $47 
Super Troopers 2   $33
Black Panther      $32
Truth or Dare      $21
Blockers           $21
Ready Player One   $21
Isle of Dogs       $13
Traffik            $11
I Can Only Imagine $8
Chappaquiddick     $6

The Avengers: Infinity War was clearly expected to dominate, the only question was by how much.

Well, there was another question.  Having done the traditional three day split for such blockbusters, there was also a question as to which days to pick.

I’ve gone back and forth on the three day thing.  I decided early on that Friday, always priced the highest, was a mugs game.  But then a few releases proved that idea to not always be the case.  Friday gets the Thursday night previews lumped in, so a popular film playing on enough screens with a rabid, must-see-it-now fan base can pack in a lot of viewings on Thursday night, inflating the Friday number beyond expectations.

So the question was whether or not The Avengers had that sort of fan base and if the pricing supported it.

Friday was expensive.  You could only have one screen of Friday, and if you wanted two screens of The Avengers, you could only add on Sunday, which would not leave very much left in the budget for filler.

But if The Avengers were the anchor was all that would matter, that still seemed like a decent bet.

If, however, The Avengers on Saturday went big enough, the extra room a pair of those as anchor would allow for better filler might tilt things in that direction.

I flipped flopped between anchor choices a few times, but settled on Friday.  Then the Thursday night previews came in and had them at $39 million.  That seemed enormous.  I was sold on Friday and, wanting to pass along info to those who cared to listen, I posted the Thursday preview results in the TAGN Chatter on the FML site, which got Po Huit to swap to a Friday anchored lineup as well.

The pickings were slim enough with a Friday/Sunday anchor that we both ended up with the same lineup, 1x Friday, 1x Sunday, 2x Traffik, 4x Chappaquiddick.

Spring Week Nine – My Picks

However, what we might have asked ourselves before committing was whether or not this Thursday night surge meant that the other two days might also see a boost beyond the expected revenue.

My evolving opinion on Friday in a three day split now includes evaluating the pricing gap between Friday and the other days relative to the amount the Thursday night previews might add.

The pricing this week showed that the expectation was already that Thursday + Friday would be huge.  The pricing predicted a front-loaded weekend.  Saturday and Sunday, by comparison, were priced low enough that they had room to go up from expectations.  And going with two Sundays, which both exceeded expectations and left lots of room for filler, was the best bet of all it seemed.

Having Sunday as the other half of my anchor insulated me a bit the rise of the latter two days, but not enough to offset the filler potential, so the perfect pick ended up anchored on that.

Spring Week Nine – Perfect Pick

That left the Meta League lineup for the week looking like this:

  1. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $202,180,246
  2. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $202,180,246
  3. JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $202,180,246
  4. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $195,674,304
  5. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $193,757,577
  6. Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $190,660,000
  7. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $190,517,706
  8. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $190,142,084
  9. Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $188,640,353
  10. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $188,596,516
  11. Joanie’s Joint (T) – $187,988,334
  12. I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $187,988,334
  13. Kraut Screens (T) – $186,175,104
  14. DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $184,336,934
  15. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $184,336,934
  16. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $184,336,934
  17. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $184,336,934
  18. Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $183,655,915
  19. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $183,655,915
  20. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $182,468,791
  21. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $182,150,105
  22. Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $169,228,678

The Meta League Legend:

  • TAGN Movie Obsession – players from it marked with a (T)
  • MCats Multiplex – players from it marked with an (M)

Ben, Biyondios, and JHW all got the perfect pick this week.

The ranking is influenced by which days of The Avengers you went with.  Those heavy on Sunday were at the top, Saturday in the middle, and people who went with Friday at the bottom.  As you can see I managed to drag Po down this week, so if you were competing with him you’re welcome I guess.

That left the season rankings looking like this:

  1. Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $1,035,925,621
  2. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $1,012,015,895
  3. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $996,050,796
  4. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $974,388,458
  5. Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $958,534,547
  6. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $952,900,426
  7. Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $950,782,282
  8. Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $948,989,068
  9. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $945,093,377
  10. Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $944,308,215
  11. Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $937,992,649
  12. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $870,489,339
  13. Kraut Screens (T) – $854,842,987
  14. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $843,503,311
  15. Joanie’s Joint (T) – $832,561,018
  16. DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $812,898,042
  17. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $808,878,199
  18. I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $788,531,883
  19. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $778,233,345
  20. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $762,828,159
  21. JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $760,050,133
  22. Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $649,951,113

In the end, while some people popped up to the top of the list for the week, the gap between first and last wasn’t enough to change the rankings significantly.  There were a few position swaps, but mostly people who did well caught up to, but didn’t overtake, those ahead of them.

The big winner of the week was Ben who not only extended his lead a bit against most competitors, but who also came in first place in the April Monthly Match Up.  Congrats!  I believe there is a cash prize for that.

I think my big win for the week was successfully predicting a sharp drop for Super Troopers 2 after its big opening.  Going down 75% week over week was a serious blow.

And the season is not over.  There are four weeks left and at least three (possibly four) of them will have a film with a Friday/Saturday/Sunday split.  The Avengers will still be so dominate that it is split again for week ten and might be for week eleven.  After that we have Deadpool 2 that will surely be split unless The Avengers is simply crazy, while the final week of the season will anchor on Solo: A Star Wars Story, which will be split for sure.

But we’ll keep our eyes on week ten for the moment, the price list for which is:

Avengers SAT       $560
Avengers SUN       $418
Avengers FRI       $335
Overboard          $167
A Quiet Place      $94
I Feel Pretty      $63
Tully              $56
Rampage            $52
Black Panther      $42
Bad Samaritan      $40
Blockers           $21
Truth or Dare      $18
Super Troopers 2   $17
Ready Player One   $16
Traffik            $10

Joining the lineup this week are Overboard, Tully, and Bad Samaritan while Chappaquiddick, I Can Only Imagine, and Isle of Dogs fall off the low end and out of our reckoning.

The Avengers pricing now reflects a weekend take without previews influencing Friday night, so Saturday is now the most pricey of the three options.  You can only get a single screen of Saturday and a Saturday/Sunday lineup leaves scant room for filler, So a pair of Sundays or something with Friday mixed in seems like a more favorable anchor strategy.

Or, if you’re feeling daring, you could go all-in on Overboard as an anchor, the only other film on the list priced beyond the mere filler role.  The last long range tracking forecast I saw said it might be good for $14 million.

On the filler front, some of the pricing rose due to The Avengers not being expected to dominate the weekend quite as hard as its opening week.  Still, most of those films have had their time on the screen already so any surprises seem likely to come from the other two new titles, Tully and Bad Samaritan I suppose.  But neither were worth even putting on the long range tracking list over at Box Office Pro, so maybe not.

The new week is upon us and, as is often the case, I am not sure where to turn.

One thought on “Spring Movie League – To Infinity and Beyond!

  1. anypo8

    Hey, you pushed me off a lineup that, while it was anchored by 2x Saturday Avengers, was filled the rest of the way with Super Troopers. So it’s not like my judgement was sound anyhow.

    I honestly didn’t know what to do this week, and my result showed it. I need to get back to my A game somehow.

    Like

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