Week ten of the Spring Fantasy Movie League is done and gone now.
It was another big weekend for The Avengers: Infinity War as expected, with the film spending a second week split into three days. The lineup for week ten looked like this:
Avengers SAT $560 Avengers SUN $418 Avengers FRI $335 Overboard $167 A Quiet Place $94 I Feel Pretty $63 Tully $56 Rampage $52 Black Panther $42 Bad Samaritan $40 Blockers $21 Truth or Dare $18 Super Troopers 2 $17 Ready Player One $16 Traffik $10
The anchor choices for the week were again limited to a few variations on a theme with The Avengers. To get the most Avengers for your budget you could get, with Saturday projected to be the big day, the option was really only Sat/Fri. The Sat/Sun combo required much faith and a pile of empty screens. Sun/Sun could have been possible, maybe, but Sat/Fri seemed much more likely to be a winner.
That was if you believed The Avengers were the only way to go. If you saw upside in some of the new films hitting theaters, like Overboard or Tully, you could always trim back on the big fish to rely on cheaper choices.
Personally I wasn’t buying that. I went big on The Avengers with the Saturday/Friday combo as my anchor, a pair that allowed me fill my remaining screens with low cost filler. With $105 left over to spend, or about $18 a screen for my six remaining screens, I actually had a few choices. I could mix and match a combo made up of the last five films on the price list. But which to pick.
After dropping 75% in its second week I put Super Troopers 2 off my list. I fiddled around a bit with different options, but ended up with 1x Sat, 1x Fri, 1x Blockers, and 5x Ready Player One.
My thoughts were that Blockers still seemed to have some life left in it and Ready Player One, which I actually went to see the previous week, seemed to be falling more slowly than Super Troopers 2 was. Plus this combo spent my entire $1,000 budget which, as I have said before, if pricing was accurate ought to net me the best result. I know that isn’t necessarily true in practice, but something in my brain likes spending my whole budget.
And then when picks locked on Friday morning I began to feel like I might have made an error. Almost everybody in the MCats league was heavy on Super Troopers 2 as filler, as were key players in the TAGN league. And the report that comes out that tracks the Top 500 FML players each week reported that 271 of them had gone with 1x Sat, 1x Fri, 6x Super Troopers 2, making it the most popular pick by far in that group.
The Saturday estimates had that lineup as the perfect pick. Sunday reinforced it. And while there was a little bit of anxiety that a change in the final numbers might upset that trend, in the end it was the perfect pick, chosen 1,426 player, including five from the Meta League.
Clearly I had not been paying attention to the right signs.
So that turn of events left the weekly scores looking like this:
- Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $106,358,272
- Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $106,358,272
- Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $106,358,272
- Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $106,358,272
- Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $106,358,272
- Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $100,866,896
- Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $99,088,766
- SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $92,430,509
- Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $90,186,882
- DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $88,954,446
- Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $86,532,009
- I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $86,301,883
- Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $85,795,344
- Kraut Screens (T) – $83,860,998
- Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $82,817,241
- Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $82,437,360
- Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $81,809,352
- Joanie’s Joint (T) – $78,459,313
- Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $71,321,061 (did not pick)
- Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $69,654,975
- JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $65,008,538 (did not pick)
- Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $56,098,105 (did not pick)
The Meta League Legend:
- TAGN Movie Obsession – players from it marked with a (T)
- MCats Multiplex – players from it marked with an (M)
The big winners this week were Corr, Ben, Dan, Biyondios, and Goat Water Picture Palace, all of who got the perfect pick.
The rest of the lineup stratified pretty much based on which days of The Avengers they chose and how many screens of Super Troopers they had. Then there were the mid-pack players who had no screens of ST2, followed by those who skimped on The Avengers and/or bet heavily on one of the week’s new titles.
Heartbreak of the week probably goes to Po Huit whose line up of 1x Sat, 7x Tully was beat by Bean Movie Burrito, the latter who forgot to pick so just rolled over his previous week’s pick with 1x Sat and 1x Sun of The Avengers.
That left the season scores looking like this:
- Ben’s X-Wing Express (M) – $1,142,283,893
- Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema (T) – $1,118,374,167
- Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex (M) – $1,080,746,730
- Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite (T) – $1,065,705,771
- Dr Liore’s Evil House of Pancakes (M) – $1,059,401,443
- Dan’s Decadent Decaplex (M) – $1,057,140,554
- Goat Water Picture Palace (T) – $1,044,350,921
- Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre (M) – $1,044,182,143
- Paks’ Pancakes & Pics (T) – $1,035,717,667
- Wilhelm’s Broken Isles Bijou (T/M) – $1,035,521,077
- Logan’s Luxurious Thaumatrope (M) – $1,026,745,575
- SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights (T) – $962,919,848
- Kraut Screens (T) – $938,703,985
- Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex (T) – $925,312,663
- Joanie’s Joint (T) – $911,020,331
- DumCheese’s Cineplex (T) – $901,852,488
- Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex (T) – $894,673,543
- I HAS BAD TASTE (T) – $874,833,766
- Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex (T) – $853,015,041
- Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies (T) – $834,331,450
- JHW’s Cineplex (T) – $825,058,671
- Bean Movie Burrito (T) – $721,272,174
Despite the range of scores for week ten there was not a lot of movement in the overall rankings. Aure, Goat, and Dan all moved up, but otherwise the weight of the previous nine weeks of scores held most people in place. It just wasn’t a big enough week to shake things up this late in the game.
Which leads us to week eleven, which also seems like a modest week in the making, with the pricing looking like:
Avengers $580 Life of the Party $225 Breaking In $131 Overboard $85 A Quiet Place $50 I Feel Pretty $33 Rampage $26 Black Panther $22 Tully $21 RBG $13 Blockers $9 Truth or Dare $9 Super Troopers 2 $9 Bad Samaritan $7 Ready Player One $6
New on the list are Life of the Party, Breaking In, and RBG. Life of the Party is a vehicle for Melissa McCarthy antics and, great character actor though she is, I am not sure is going to be a huge draw. It will be on a lot of screens, but I am not sure I’d throw over The Avengers for it. Long range forecasts have it passing $20 million, which is good for that sort of film, but not a blockbuster.
Breaking In is a action adventure crime drama with no big names as a draw and a long range forecast putting it in the low teens.
And then there is RBG, a feature looking at the life and career of supreme court associate justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. It did very well last week on a per screen dollar basis, but was only at 34 venues nationwide. It feels like a very niche title to me, something I’d watch on a Sunday afternoon, but not something I’m going to schlep over to the local art house cinema to catch. How it does probably depends greatly on how many more screens it gets this week.
Because of The Avengers collapsing down to one pick this week, the only film from last week bumped off the list is Traffik.
But the all-in-one package of The Avengers still seems like the starting place for lineups, with estimates in the $60 million range, unless Life of the Party starts getting a lot of buzz. Meanwhile, the filler pricing is at an all time low for the season, with Ready Player One just six bucks a screen.
My Monday night gut pick was 1x The Avengers, 2x Overboard, and 6x A Quiet Place, but that is not a line up I am wed to in anyway and I expect to change that up once some mid-week forecasts show up along with theater counts.
This might not be a big week, but after this we face the openings of Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Mistakes on those weeks could shake up the final standings.