New Years Predictions for 2019

The start of a new year is always heralded by resolutions and predictions and, while I am no good at resolutions… I’m old and I am unlikely to change… I am certainly willing to throw my hat in the ring when it comes to predictions.  I’m no good at those either, but since they don’t require me to lose weight or be a better person I’m game.

2019 banner provided by my daughter, who basically used her favorite EVE Online screen shot this year.

For those who are keen to see my past attempts… or are bored and looking for something to do today… my record of new year’s predictions are here, complete with results:

I will add in my usual disclaimer up front.

My predicting something is not the same as my wanting something to happen.  Well, at least when it is bad.  I don’t want studios to fold, games to shut down, or Derek Smart to be right about Star Citizen.  It is more a matter of looking at the world and making a guess at how things will look on December 1st, the cut off date for all of my predictions.  Inevitably there will be some good and some bad that happens, and some of it will be visible in advance even to me.

Also, I tend to go a bit over the top simply because that is more fun than “not much will change really.”

The usual prediction rules apply.  Each prediction is worth ten points unless otherwise noted, with partial credit available.  Predictions should be written in a style that will make scoring easy and obvious eleven months down the road, but won’t be because about three predictions in I will forget that and veer off into vague, hand waving trends that are pretty much impossible to pin down.  All I can promise is that I will grade myself poorly on poorly written predictions.

So off we go.

1 – Early Classic Date

WoW Classic will launch on May 28, 2019.  As is the standard for this sort of guess at a date, I knock off 2 points for every week I am off.  That is about as concrete and clearly defined as a prediction can possibly be.  The early date will be to coincide with the end of the six month subscriptions that Blizz sold back in the fall as Battle for Azeroth isn’t holding people otherwise.

2 – Classic Rush

The WoW Classic launch will be 2004 all over again.  There confluence of nostalgia and the end of the Battle for Azeroth expansion will conspire to cause WoW Classic to overflow quickly.  There won’t be enough servers leading to long queues to get on to the servers available.  This will lead to new servers being spun up and the classic server split routine from back in the day.  Blizzard will publicly compare the day one WoW Classic crowds to how things went at the WoW launch in 2004.

3 – Classic Plans

By the time BlizzCon roles around… we’ll get to BlizzCon itself in a bit… there will be a panel, or at least a mention in the keynote, about WoW Classic and moving on from vanilla into some of the early expansions.  How to do an expansion like The Burning Crusade without necessarily progressing the vanilla servers will be a key point of contention, with transfers and boosts straight to level 60 being discussed.

4 – Classic Acceleration

By September 1, 2019 the WoW Classic rush will be over.  As we have seen time and again, the initial pile-on to play on a nostalgia server peaks pretty quickly as players, familiar with the old game and reliving their experience, move much more quickly through the game than back in the day.  This will lead to complaints about dead servers and calls for server merges or free transfers.  This will be even worse if Blizz goes full purist mode and doesn’t use the sharding tech that allows more people to use a single zone/server.

5 – Next WoW Live Expansion

The early launch of WoW Classic to cover the Battle for Azeroth collapse will mess with the Blizzard’s timing the way that Warlords of Draenor did.  Look for Blizz to cover their sagging Q2 2019 earnings by announcing the next expansion in August, just after Activision releases their quarterly earnings report.

6 – The Long BlizzCon

There will be a BlizzCon 2019 on November 8 and 9.  The main stage will be taken over by new titles as Blizzard announces no fewer that five projects.  Three of them will be mobile titles and an actual PC Diablo franchise game will be another.  However, a Diablo II remaster will go missing yet again.

7 – Full Steam Ahead

Expect Steam to stay strong despite Epic, Discord, and Amazon trying to undermine it with better deals for developers.  Steam can and will play that game while carrying on as the one stop shop for all games PC.  Devs won’t get as big of a cut on Steam, but the installed base and success stories will keep any but the biggest studios from cutting ties.

8 – All Things PlanetSlide

PlanetSide Arena will launch… or go into early access or whatever… as planned at the end of January.  It will sell some boxes and make Daybreak some quick money.  But it isn’t going to steal back the Battle Royale market for the company.  Before spring turns to summer it will be showing peak numbers on Steam down near the H1Z1 end of the spectrum, lagging far behind PUBG and nowhere close to whatever Fortnite will report on its own.

9 – Sayonara Norrath

I am going to go with the Prophecy of May and say that this will be a fateful anniversary year for EverQuest titles.  The 15th anniversary for EverQuest II and the 20th anniversary for EverQuest will see both titles celebrated, given special new content, and then put in what will be effectively maintenance mode.

10 – NantGo Away, I’m No Good For You

The NantG Mobile joint venture between Daybreak and NantWorks will deliver on none of its promises.  They’ll keep H1Z1 alive, but there won’t be any new Z1 Battle Royale (unless they just straight up rename H1Z1), there won’t be any new esports league, there won’t be an esports venue next to the LA Times, and there won’t be any mobile version of Z1 Battle Royale, and there won’t be any hint, word, or anything about any EverQuest game, mobile or otherwise.

11 – Something Has Gotta Daybreak

All of this is going to add up to hard times at Daybreak.  By December 1, 2019 it won’t be the company it was on January 1, if it exists at all.  It will either be acquired wholesale by another company or be parted out, with somebody like Gamigo taking the the three traditional MMORPGs (EverQuest, EverQuest II, and DC Universe Online) while the rest either tried to stand alone with the what I will call “the children of PlanetSide” or being folded into the NantWorks joint venture.  I’ll be writing a farewell history of the studio before the year is out.

12 – Standing Alone Games

Standing Stone Games will feel the impact of Daybreak’s misfortune as well as the sting of losing a key LOTRO developer.  They will carry through the first half of 2019 on momentum, but the latter half will leave people wondering what is up as they scramble to fill the void that Daybreak’s collapse will leave on their marketing/publishing front.  The company will soldier on, but you won’t be getting anything like a 64-bit client from them.

13 – Non-Shippers

The following titles won’t ship in 2019, defining “ship” as being available for sale with having to hide their unfinished state behind terms like “early access,” “beta,” “alpha,” or anything that falls into that realm.  2 Points per title on this one.

  • Squadron 42 (forget Star Citizen overall, that one is just a gimme)
  • Camelot Unchained (beta would be a step forward)
  • Atlas (ARK all over again)
  • Torchlight Frontiers (beta will be enough for the hype to turn to whines)
  • Crowfall (a relative babe in crowdfunding years)

14 – CCP Anomalous

The ISK problem in New Eden will be one of CCPs targets for 2019, so expect null sec anomalies and the rats that infest them to change to try and slow down the titan and super gravy train while not stomping too hard on the line members in the VNIs.  Mining, however, will remain unchanged.  Ore doesn’t bring ISK into the economy and should be self regulating based on price.  It isn’t, but it should be.

15 – High Sec Changes

The War Dec changes will lead CCP to change up how suicide ganking works as well.  Right now it is too by the numbers, a solved problem for most cases.  CCP doesn’t want high sec to be safe, but right now the gankers kill with impunity and need a shake up.

16 – Low Sec Attention Span

CCP has to do something radical for low sec in general and faction warfare specifically.  My guess is that low sec will continued to be screwed in general, but that CCP will decide they need to greatly restrict, if not outright ban, the deployment of Upwell structures in FW space.

17 – CSM XIV

CCP will change up the election process yet again, trying to get the candidate list out further before the actual elections, but it will be for naught.  Eight of ten seats will still go to null sec alliances.

18 – POS Bash

Player Owned Starbases, already left with little relevance in the game, will see their end come June, when CCP finally pulls them from the game, symbolically burning the source code on the summer solstice.  And so will go the POS, long a staple of the game.

19 – Key FOB

The POS announcement will come earlier as part of CCP introducing a new Upwell structure, the player forward operating base.  The FOB will be something akin to a corp/alliance sized mobile depot that will allow players to repair, refit, and resupply.  It will lack tethering or defenses and, give how cheap a Raitaru is, will barely get used.

20 – 3DS Exit

Nintendo, after paring down the platform releases to almost nothing, will announce the end of their long running handheld line.  They will cease manufacture, blow out the last units, and throw themselves fully onto the Switch.  It will be the end of the Pokemon era.  Pokemon will just be another game, not something that made a platform worthwhile.

21 – MADE Pirates

Pirates of the Burning Seas will end up being the first MMORPG to make it into The Museum of Digital Art and Entertainment.  The unique state of its current ownership will create a situation where the game will actually be preserved, mostly because it won’t survive on its own.  And that will be it.  The games people ache to see enshrined, SWG or CoH, will never get there.  The only possible entrants will be games so small and unknown that few will notice.  So The Saga of Ryzom will be a possibility.  The MADE should work on preserving MUDs.  That is something they could make happen.

22 – Shlock Boxes

No wide spread change to the legal status of lockboxes or the selling of power or pay to win.  Some small jurisdictions might try to put something in place, as happened in 2018, but nothing will go in that will change the bottom line.  There simply isn’t a political power block against this sort of thing that could make any difference for politicians.  At best it will be used as a political football to try and divert attention away from other things.  For example, the NRA doesn’t care about video games… until there is yet another mass shooting, at which point they need something to blame.  More of that.

23 – A Prime New World

Amazon’s survival sandbox whatever MMORPG New World won’t be ready in 2019, but the company will announce special benefits for Prime members when the game does launch.  I hope it will be something more than expedited delivery from the in-game version of Whole Foods.

24 – Behindcraft

While Microsoft and Mojang haven’t given up on Minecraft – Java Edition, which is the Mac, PC, and Linux version of Minecraft that lacks a cash shop, it has clearly slowed down development.  The rest of Minecraft has pandas and new cats and stuff while Java is getting development snapshots still.  This trend will continue as the Java code base won’t release the panda update until March and that will be the only update to be released for Java in 2019.

25 – Avatar’s Shroud

Shroud of the Avatar will see further constrictions, if not an outright closure, in 2019.  Like most early access games, it used up the goodwill of all but the most dedicated fans as it was being built out and now nobody is left interested in buying a copy.

26 – Guild Wars 2 Continues

The pattern seems to be an expansion every could of years.  That is about as deep as my insight into the game really goes at this point.  But given that, I expect they will announce an expansion this year set for launch in 2020.

27 – Cattle Royale

As we saw the final rounds of the MOBA shake out with Blizz cutting back on Heroes of the Storm, the culling of the Battle Royale pretenders will commence in earnest.  Anybody for whom Battle Royale is just a mode tacked on to an already solid franchise, as with CS:GO, won’t have much to worry about, but anybody all-in on that alone… that isn’t Fortnite or PUBG… will be dead or dying by the end of the year.  This will be most unfortunate for the late comers that show up this year.  Also, how they hell am I even going to score this one.  See what I mean?

Bonus Wild-Ass Prediction:  Sony buys back some, if not all, of Daybreak from Jason Epstein at the bankruptcy sale at discount prices.  If Daybreak is headed for a fall, who has the most to lose?  At this point, aside from Daybreak itself, Sony makes a tidy sum on the PlayStation 4 from DC Universe Online and, for the moment, H1Z1.  Maybe they also make a bit from PlanetSide 2, but I’d be surprised at that.  20 bonus points if it comes to pass.

Double Bonus Wild-Ass Prediction: Daybreak announces a new EverQuest title, sells pre-orders, never makes it to early access, and shuts everything down without any refunds.  I want 40 bonus points if that happens.

So there it is, my guesses for 2019.  That is 270 points possible, with some extra credit bonus predictions.  Looking at them as a whole, I can see I’ve probably been too pessimistic along some lines… Daybreak can’t possibly fall that far… and too optimistic along others… like CCP has ever shown itself to be able to jungle that many balls at once… but I am going to let them stand as it.

You can tell how limited my range of games is by how few studios I feel I know enough about to even venture a guess.  Me even dipping into GW2 was a stretch, and I can’t even begin to tell you where SWTOR sits.  And then there are all the crowdfunded, kickstarted, early access games.  I just pulled five from that gaggle for the “won’t ship” list, but I could have as easily picked five others.

Anyway, that is what I am calling for 2019.  We shall see how the year plays out.  Look for a recap some time in December… or tell me what you think I missed right now.

10 thoughts on “New Years Predictions for 2019

  1. Redbeard

    Here’s one:

    Despite the continuing collapse of other AAA MMO titles, Funcom soldiers on with Age of Conan, leading to questions such as “Which rich person out there is playing the game enough to keep it afloat?”

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  2. Bhagpuss

    I do think Daybreak is in trouble but then again it’s very hard to be sure. It’s privately owned by someone of undefined wealth, who may or may not actually be fronting for someone or something else. We have no clear idea how many people play the games or what they pay to do so. What’s most important, we have no idea what whoever pays the bills wants to do with the assets – would they prefer to milk them for a steady, if unspectacular, income? Buff them up and sell them on? Invest and grow? The company I work for was privately owned by a Russian billionaire for six years and it was literally impossible for the whole of that period to guess what would happen next. Money appeared out of nowhere to fund the most unlikely things while other aspects of the business went begging. Eventually the owner got tired of owning us and sold us to a Hedge Fund. I’m not saying Daybreak is a rich man’s toy but really, who knows what’s going on?

    I would be surprised (and gutted) if DBG just up and folded in the next twelve months. As I say often, looking at things as a very long-time player of EQ, EQ2 and DCUO, I honestly can’t say the games have *ever* seemed better-managed than they are now. They are really exemplary – the servers stay up, patches happen when scheduled, just about everything they say is going to happen happens, and when it happens it looks and plays exactly as described. We get regular content updates and they aren’t very buggy at all! Best of all, there are no ludicrous, laugh-out-loud ideas that get hyped to the skies and then either don’t work, never happen or get neglected and forgotten almost as soon as they arrive. None of this was ever true on Smed’s watch.

    I do think DBG is gearing down, though. Although I’d like more EQ/EQ2 expansions, I think maintenance mode is much more likely. If it’s maintenance a la FFXI that would be very good news indeed. As for SSG, well we’re back to who knows what’s going on. Do we even know – for certain – who owns them any more? We thought we knew who owned DBG and that turned out to be wrong. There seems to be an enormous effort going on to keep the mystery going. Why would that be? I would guess that if DBG does fold altogether SSG will go down with them. I’m not expecting either to go during 2019 though.

    Sony won’t buy the EQ IP if it goes up for sale. Smed or Brad might, though. Smed might even get Amazon to back him. I think it undoubtedly still has some value to someone so I would imagine the EQs will carry on somehow, somewhere. As I type this I can see that there are three EQ servers and one EQ2 server showing “High” population and another 18 servers between them showing “Medium”. That’s got to be worth money to someone. Dcuo also has servers at High and Medium but I doubt it’s DBG’s to sell.

    As for a new EQ game, if they announce one it won’t be until they are there or thereabouts ready to release it. The open development/early access take the money now, make the game later regime left the building with Smed. The current operation works almost exactly the opposite way. They will certainly pre-order the heck out of anything they do have ready to go, though. They love their pre-orders at DBG.

    On GW2 I think you’re a year out. Anet announced the first GW2 expansion nine months before release and it was a terrible error that they came pretty much openly to regret. The second expansion came with about half the notice – I forget exactly how long but less than 6 months. I will be both surprised and disappointed if there’s no third expansion in late summer/early autumn 2019. They will finish Living Story 4 in the Spring then announce the expansion, allowing them to push LS5 to 2020.

    Other than that, I have no comment to make ;)

    Liked by 1 person

  3. zaphod6502

    RE: Squadron 42. CIG have announced a hard release date of “Summer 2020”. I can imagine they will cop a lot of heat if they slip past that date. As for Star Citizen it will always continue to be a work in progress but I expect the “universe” will go permanent live in 2020 as well.

    @Bhagpuss:
    Is Guild Wars 2 still worth playing? My interest in it sort of died after 2 years of playing the game at launch and it seemed I was just treading water and not really achieving much in the game. I still have fond memories of it and the wonderful art style.

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  4. splatus

    I’d add EA’s Anthem to be released next month. It has the potential to be awesome or a massive loot-box-grind. Would love to hear your opinion…

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  5. Super Perforator

    Hi!
    With regards to your comment about High Sec Suicide Ganking…. have you ever tried it?
    I mean apart from Burn Jita/Burn Amarr things?

    If you are not “F1-Monkeying” in a large fleet… there is actually surprisingly much effort that goes into Suicide Ganking… if the targets were taking care… then they would not be so easy to gank… and I would be out of a job.

    The best thing CCP can do to make the ganking experience different is to make Mining, Mission Running and PVE in general more engaging…. that is the biggest problem….

    If a frigate floats next to a retriever, and locks it…. sits there for 3 minutes as negative sec status people come into local…. and then dies….
    And then the pod sits there for a bit more than 15 minutes, so the gankers can come back to finish the job…. what is there for CCP to do to change this?

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  6. Wilhelm Arcturus Post author

    @Super Perforator – Yes I have. That it requires some effort doesn’t make it any less of a solved problem. If you want something blown up, it goes boom pretty much every time. Throwing out an extreme stupidity example about somebody being AFK is just mis-direction. I don’t think anybody is asking for that particular scenario to be solved unless they’re demanding high sec be made completely safe, which I have never advocated and which CCP has made clear they will never do.

    Also you seem to have missed the part where I said these were predictions, not wishes. I think the noise is going to get loud enough this year that CCP will feel the need to adjust the balance on suicide ganking. If they don’t, I won’t cry. I’ll just take off points for missing that prediction. I do that a lot. My past results are all linked here so you can see how badly I generally do. And, even I think I predicted more for CCP than they’ll be able to do. I even left off the 64-bit client.

    Meanwhile, mining, mission running, and PvE in general will never be more engaging because they all quickly become solved and optimized. (Also, they made moon mining arguable more engaging and look how many low sec orgs just walked away from it.) As I noted in a previous post, only Abyssal space isn’t completely solved as PvE and only because there is a random element to it. And even with that CCP’s numbers say it is mostly solved if you fly a Gila and are able to put out more the 700 dps. If you do that, you win something like 99% of the time.

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