FML – Moving from Winter to Spring

This week saw the final round of the Winter/Awards season for Fantasy Movie League.

While I am still holding out for the summer blockbuster season before I return to focusing on the league as a regular feature here, if you wanted to join in for a practice season now would be a good time.  I will put a link in the comments after this post goes live.  The links expire, so I don’t want to put it in the post in advance.

As for the season just passed, here were the final top ten scores.

  1. Goat Water Picture Palace – $964,413,237
  2. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $941,196,773
  3. Wilhelm’s Kul Tiras Kino – $861,126,227
  4. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex – $786,513,610
  5. Too Orangey For Crows – $784,396,889
  6. Joanie’s Joint – $739,435,908
  7. Ben’s X-Wing Express – $707,973,439
  8. grannanj’s Cineplex – $696,783,637
  9. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $682,821,329
  10. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $621,049,944

That is the same people in the top three slots as my mid-season summary, though the final positions changed a bit.

Goat and I were neck and neck, with me behind by a mere $600K, at the end of week ten.  But then I made bad picks on the last two weeks.  Goat and SynCaine both went with the Alita lineup in week 11 and How to Train Your Dragon plus Happy Death Day 2U lineup in week 12 that were both runaway picks, weeks where if you don’t get those you fall way behind.  That lifted Goat and SynCaine well past my score.

That I was even in contention was probably a bigger surprise.  I didn’t win a single week, while SynCaine and Goat won 10 of the 12 weeks combined. I just didn’t make a really bad pick until the end.

And then there is the alternative scoring methodology which, as a reminder, hands out a score to the top ten finishers each week, with first place getting 10 points, second getting 9 points, and so on down the line, which is an attempt to remove the scoring volatility that some weeks show when the FML team is off in their pricing.

  1. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 96
  2. Goat Water Picture Palace – 85
  3. Wilhelm’s Kul Tiras Kino – 84
  4. Too Orangey For Crows – 69
  5. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex – 65
  6. Joanie’s Joint – 55
  7. Ben’s X-Wing Express – 48
  8. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 44
  9. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – 41
  10. grannanj’s Cineplex – 37

In that scoring SynCaine came out in first place, well ahead of Goat in second and myself in third.

While SynCaine only won 4 weeks to Goat’s 6, SynCaine also never fell out of the top ten on any week while Goat did so twice.  Despite never winning a week I held on to third place by consistently staying in the top five finishers every week, save for the final two, where I placed sixth.

And so it goes, another season down.

The Spring season will be a long one, running 14 weeks, ending after the US Memorial Day weekend. That seems late, and puts the start of the Summer Blockbuster season out until the first week of June.

If I had been paying closer attention I could have changed the duration of the Spring season for the TAGN league.  However, now that the season has started, we’re stuck with 14 weeks.  No changing after a season goes live.

I am thinking about possibly changing the Summer season.  I could cut it up into two or three shorter seasons; maybe two six week seasons (or a six and a seven) or three four week seasons (or two fours and a five to line things up).  That would let people come and go on vacation without them messing up a whole season as well as stopping that inevitable second half drag where anybody who started off with a couple of bad weeks feels they are totally out of contention.

Anyway, feedback on that idea is welcome.

7 thoughts on “FML – Moving from Winter to Spring

  1. bhagpuss

    I was the opposite of you in that I made some terrible picks at the start of the season but got much more consistent towards the end. That was kind of the point of this season because I was experimenting a bit more than I usually do.

    What I learned is that the very worst way to play is to make your pick on the day the titles are released, based solely on what you already may or may not already know about them. Every time I did that I came way down the list. I feel now that it takes at least an hour or so of research, followed by a couple of sanity checks later in the week.

    I am a bit curious about people who say they are adjusting their picks according to the Thursday box office reports. I haven’t yet been able to see those anywhere before the picks lock on Friday. I was actually at home last week on Friday and I watched both Box Office Mojo and The Numbers right up to the deadline and they still hadn’t posted Thursday’s figures. Where are people seeing them?

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  2. anypo8

    I would be more likely to start again in a shorter season. The latter part of the season always kind of frustrated me — when I was in contention I was trying to make fairly conservative picks to stay in; when I was out of contention I was making desperation picks in the hopes one of them would pay off. Probably good game theory (?), but less fun than just trying to make a best prediction of what’s going to happen.

    I would also be more excited about trying a season with a very early close time for picks: maybe as early as 48 hours after picks open. There are some big drawbacks to this, especially for people whose time zones don’t align well. However, I finally got really frustrated and bored with doing a bunch of second-order statistics and modeling on professional box office predictions: sadly, that seems like the best chance of a good score in the current environment.

    Gratz to this season’s top scorers! Especial salutations to my wife, who did quite well this time around. :-)

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  3. Vigo

    Well, Spring 2019 has come and gone. Ironically enough, I did terribly in the only season I’ll ever play with the franchise that gave me my namesake in contention. (Though I did okay with that week, at least).

    Still, I’ll be there for Fall, to be sure, though iffy internet over the Summer means that season might be a bit harder for me to cover.

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  4. SynCaine

    The late lock and the accuracy of the Box Office sites makes this somewhat trivial.
    Every Friday morning (EST), I look at BoxOfficeReport and Pro.BoxOffice. First thing you look for is if anything is massively off in terms of pricing vs prediction. If some movie is going to massively outperform expectations, you can almost always spot it. If not, then I just look at what is the best performer/price between the two sites, and go with that. Takes me maybe 10-15 minutes total. Rarely are the sites so off that you will really mess it up.
    It’s honestly not that fun, because those sites are so accurate, and the game isn’t about what movie is going to do well or not, but rather what movie did FML misprice.

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  5. Wilhelm Arcturus Post author

    Sounds like another vote for an earlier lock.

    I am actually a bit surprised how well I did this season as most weeks I just did my pick on Monday night and let it ride. But the last two weekends show what happens when you don’t get that last minute intel.

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