Well, it was one of those weeks for our summer Fantasy Movie League.
On the bright side, only one of the two new films this week failed to meet its forecasts, breaking that trend I suppose. Annabelle Comes Home fell well short of what it was expected to do, turning in just $20 million instead of the expected $25-30 million.
Yesterday, on the other hand, exploded in the FML tradition of Boss Baby or Baby Driver, such that we ended up with a week where you either went all-in with seven screens of Yesterday or you got left behind.
That combo of events meant that this week I left most everybody behind because I somehow stumbled onto the perfect pick. And I got it from the FML Cineplex Builder no less.
I had anchored on Annabelle Monday night, my Monday Night Hot Takes league picks anchored on two screens of that plus two of Yesterday. Annabelle opened on Tuesday, and by Wednesday morning the disappointment at the opening was already out there. So I jumped off of that and anchored on Toy Story 4, thinking that was the safe bet. I stayed there until Thursday afternoon.
On Thursday I read something that said Yesterday seemed to be poised to do as much as $12 million over the weekend. I popped that number into the Cineplex Builder and it gave me the retro rock lineup of 7x Yesterday and 1x Rocketman. I thought that was pretty funny, so I copied it to the FML league entry, just to have it to hand. Then, as the day went on I decided that I needed to gamble a bit, so I copied that lineup across the board thinking I would likely die quietly. Whatever.
And then Saturday morning rolled around and that lineup was the perfect pick. More so, Yesterday seemed to be poised to do more than $12 million. With Sunday the count got a bit higher. And with the final totals in Yesterday was up to $17 million, leaving the week ended up looking like this:
- Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $142,006,652
- Conical Effort – $98,115,080
- Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $89,937,371
- Too Orangey For Crows – $87,704,759
- Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $84,087,077
- Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $80,297,568
- Goat Water Picture Palace – $75,893,259
- SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $75,065,989
- Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $69,219,846
- Joanie’s Joint – $64,157,258
So, yeah, all-in on Yesterday was the play of the week, the perfect pick. It was worth $19 million a screen with the best performer bonus.
FML says that 1292 people got the perfect pick, and the highest score for people who had something besides Yesterday as their main anchor was around $110 million, and that was Annabelle and 4x Yesterday as anchors.
Conical Effort came in second anchoring on 2x Annabelle and 3x Yesterday, good for $98 million. After that it was a mix of either Toy Story 4 or 2x Annabelle as anchors. I was a bit surprised that Toy Story 4 wasn’t a safe anchor, but then nothing is when one picture blows up well beyond expectations.
That left the overall season score looking like:
- Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $388,800,250
- Goat Water Picture Palace – $332,792,833
- Too Orangey For Crows – $324,877,093
- Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $310,579,275
- SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $308,926,861
- Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $303,518,950
- Joanie’s Joint – $288,463,808
- Conical Effort – $269,275,353
- grannanj’s Cineplex – $222,640,134
- Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $210,311,260
Yesterday vaulted me for third place to well out in front. I wouldn’t consider myself safe. Another Yesterday sort of week could come along in favor of somebody else. But I am clearly the person to beat at the moment.
The alternate scoring ended up like this:
- Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 33
- Goat Water Picture Palace – 30
- Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 27
- Too Orangey For Crows – 22
- Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 20
- SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 18
- Joanie’s Joint – 14
- Conical Effort – 14
- Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – 14
- Ben’s X-Wing Exp(r)ess – 10
A first place finish was enough to get me into the lead, by the race remains tight there since you are limited to a maximum of ten points per week.
Now that Yesterday is behind us it is time to look at what is coming with week five. The lineup is:
- Spider-man FRI – $365
- Spider-man SAT – $348
- Spider-man SUN – $275
- Toy Story 4 – $274
- Yesterday – $101
- Annabelle Comes Home – $88
- Midsommar – $85
- Aladdin – $59
- Men in Black International – $48
- The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $38
- Avengers: Endgame – $28
- Rocketman – $22
- John Wick 3 – $20
- Child’s Play – $17
- Godzilla – $9
Gone are Shaft, Anna, Late Night, and Dark Phoenix. Spider-man: Far From Home has arrived.
Spider-man brings the Marvel Cinematic Universe back to the big screen yet again as Spider-man goes on the road to sling webs in Paris. Or so I gather from the trailer.
Being in the blockbuster range, Spider-man has been split into three days, though with prices such that you can easily pair up days and still get a full eight screens filled. Toy Story 4 still looms out there as a draw for kids on this US holiday weekend.
Well, US Independence Day (the holiday, not the movie) is tomorrow, so a lot of people will take Friday off for a four-day weekend. That could drive numbers up if people go to the movies, or down if they go to the lake or the beach or whatever.
Other than Spider-man, there is one other new film on the list, Midsommar. This is a real wild card, as there are no forecasts for it as yet, it hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, though reviews are very good, and it is a horror flick in what sounds a bit like the Wickerman vein, where tourist go to a rural location for a festival only to find out the grim and disturbing truth about the locals. Horror films in the summer have a habit of taking off unexpectedly.
Midsommar seems priced a bit high given its outsider status. FML seems to think it will do about $10 million based on where they put it. But it could break out like The Dead Don’t Die or Yesterday.
So what to pick?
If you’re feeling that Spider-man will break the trend of disappointing opening weekends, the lack of an empty screen penalty means you can go FRI, SAT, SUN, and 1x Godzilla for the full effect.
Or you can get 2x FRI and some decent filler. Maybe mix in some Aladdin, which has been holding very strong week over week.
But if you’re feeling Midsommar is going to be another break-out, then FRI, 2x Yesterday, and 5x Midsommar is possible, or maybe just FRI and 7x Midsommar if you think, as I do, that Yesterday had its moment and is now over-priced.
Which ever you go with, get your picks in soon. The league locks tomorrow night.