The October MER and the Return of NPC Bounties

CCP has the Monthly Economic Report for October out, so it is our chance to see if things have continued to rebound since the end of the Blackout.  For that I will open with the same chart I did in September.

October 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

With the September MER we saw bounties begin a sharp climb.  This climb continued through October, tapering off a bit, but putting the NPC bounty numbers very close to their June pre-Blackout plateau.  That continued increase in bounties was more than enough to allow them to reclaim their past position at the top of the sinks and faucets chart.

October 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

Last month NPC bounties sat at just over 20 trillion ISK, so it doubled for October, hitting 41.5 trillion ISK, easily surpassing commodities.  Oddly, commodities spiked up a bit as well, jumping from 21.6 trillion to 28.4 trillion ISK in value.  But that was not enough to fend off the return of NPC bounties.

The top ten regions for NPC bounties in October were:

  1. Delve – 4.7 trillion
  2. Deklein – 4.0 trillion
  3. Outer Passage – 3.7 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 2.7 trillion
  5. Branch – 2.6 trillion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 2.4 trillion
  7. Fountain – 2.2 trillion
  8. Tenerifis – 1.9 trillion
  9. Oasa – 1.5 trillion
  10. Omist – 1.5 trillion

That is up noticeably from the September list, combined the end of the blackout and the cyno changes that took supers out of ratting for a short time.

  1. Delve – 2.2 trillion
  2. Deklein – 1.5 trillion
  3. Cobalt Edge – 1 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 975 billion
  5. Fountain – 957 billion
  6. Branch – 699 billion
  7. Oasa – 686 billion
  8. Detorid – 528 billion
  9. Tenerifis – 496 billion
  10. Insmother – 454 billion

However, the August numbers, which were just blackout influenced, were actually not as far off in Delve as in some regions.  The perks of organization.

  1. Delve – 4.39 trillion
  2. Insmother – 1.30 trillion
  3. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.05 trillion
  5. Querious – 753 billion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 705 billion
  7. Metropolis – 543 billion
  8. Omist – 526 billion
  9. Fountain – 515 billion
  10. Malpais – 514 billion

Overall NPC bounties remain well down from their peak at the start of the year, even if they are moving back up again.  The monthly NPC bounty totals for 2019 so far:

  • January – 83.8 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • August – 21.1 trillion
  • September – 20.6 trillion
  • October – 41.5 trillion

For those interested in what happened during the blackout period, CCP Larrikin did a lessons learned segment of his Data & Botting presentation at EVE Vegas.  CCP has posted that presentation as a stand alone video, so you can watch the relevant section which starts at about the eight minute mark:

 

Then there is mining.  I heard on The Meta Show a statement that mining was lagging behind, but I am not sure the numbers support that.

October 2019 – Mining value by region

The top ten regions by value mine for October were:

  1. Delve – 3.7 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 2.2 trillion
  3. Querious – 1.19 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.19 trillion
  5. Fountain – 1.16
  6. The Forge – 1.1 trillion
  7. Malpais – 900 billion
  8. Lonetrek – 805 billion
  9. Cobalt Edge – 801 billion
  10. Metropolis – 795 billion

Compare that to the top ten for September:

  1. Delve – 3 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.3 trillion
  3. The Forge – 1.2 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.1 trillion
  5. Querious – 879 billion
  6. Lonetrek – 876 billion
  7. Sinq Laison – 848 billion
  8. Metropolis – 847 billion
  9. Fountain – 768 billion
  10. Genesis – 705 billion

The numbers are not up dramatically, but what did change is where the mining was being done.  During the blackout high sec regions around the major trade hubs climbed up the rankings as null sec mining was suppressed.  With October null sec regions began appearing higher on the list.

But what also happened was that mineral prices were down again in October, putting them near the recent all time low.

October 2019 – Economic Indices

Mining is measures in the ISK value of the ore mined, not by the physical volume, so if the amount of ore mined stayed the same but prices when down, the amount listed in the MER would be down as well.  If prices are down but the MER shows amounts up for regions like Delve and Esoteria, it seems likely that mining has already seen a resurgence and we are now seeing too many minerals chasing too few buy orders.

And so it goes.  It looks like people are back to the ISK generation routines in null sec.  But the things that go along with that to drive the economy like production (108 trillion to 119 trillion ISK value from September to October) and destruction (31 trillion to 32 trillion ISK value from September to October) are not up sufficiently to absorb the influx of minerals.  We shall see if that improves in November.

1 thought on “The October MER and the Return of NPC Bounties

  1. anypo8

    The charts that stuck out for me in the MER were Production, Velocity of ISK, and Money Supply. The Consumer Price Index is staying relatively flat while the various Producer Price Indices have plummeted. Character Money Supply (but not Corporate Money Supply) and Velocity of ISK have plummeted (in a way pretty unprecedented in recent history) and show no signs of recovery yet.

    I’m no economist, but all this points to one conclusion to me: EVE is dying. Yeah, I know, but seriously it’s all consistent with long-time casual player activity being dropped through the floor by the blackout and cyno nerf and never really recovering. The CPI should go down along with the PPIs, but if manufacturers are able to sell less goods they have to keep their margins up to maintain their profits. VISK and CMS are pretty direct measures of active play.

    It’s no wonder that player recruitment and retention is such a focus for CCP. My guess is that they’ve pretty much lost their marginal player base at this point — players like myself who just got exhausted with the constant churn that selectively affects them. New players aren’t affect much by these changes, and highly committed corp veterans shrug them off and work through them. It’s the middle that gets hit with the changes and has neither the resources, the time or the player skills to figure out how to cope with them. In this hypothesis, blackout and cyno nerf were the last straw for a bunch more of them.

    I don’t know. Maybe I’m just reading too much into it.

    Like

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