We got a double tap of Monthly Economic Reports from CCP, with the long overdue November MER and the December MER both landing the week before last.
The delay was blamed on “technical difficulties,” though that seemed to apply mostly to the December MER. I am not sure what went wrong with November.
As for the December MER issues, those were around the mining yield, no doubt due to the changes that were part of the big New Dawn permanent austerity plan.
As I noted on the previous Friday Bullet Points post, CCP disavowed the mining numbers in the original December MER, which showed a huge drop in mining output since the patch, put up a chart without any data that showed mining was actually up, then promised to revise the December MER.
I will give them credit in that they did, in fact, publish a revised December MER. What it tells us… well… I will get to that in the mining section, where I will review November, the original December numbers, and what CCP has given us since. I’ll save that for last, since that is where things go off the rails.
Production remains well below where it sat before industry changes made battleships and capital hulls much more expensive to produce. CCP Ratatti remained confident at the “No Question Taken” Q&A stream after the tepid Winter Update that players would fall into line eventually.
Production in November rang in at 90.4 trillion ISK in value, about where it was in October, with the following regions in the top ten producers:
- The Forge – 17.15 trillion
- Delve – 9.55 trillion
- Lonetrek – 6.3 trillion
- The Citadel – 6 trillion
- Vale of the Silent – 4.82 trillion
- Fade – 3.58 trillion
- Sinq Laison – 3.55 trillion
- The Kalevala Expanse – 3.1 trillion
- Domain – 3.03 trillion
- Placid – 2.28 trillion
December actually saw a bit of an uptick in production, coming in at 109.19 trillion ISK in value, though there were new blueprints and new modules to research and produce as part of the New Dawn “prosperity” patch.
- The Forge – 19.61 trillion
- Delve – 13.51 trillion
- Lonetrek – 7.65 trillion
- The Citadel – 7.2 trillion
- Vale of the Silent – 7.12 trillion
- Fade – 3.73 trillion
- Sinq Laison – 3.69 trillion
- Domain – 3.27 trillion
- The Kalevala Expanse – 3.18 trillion
- Heimatar – 2.87 trillion
In addition, the Imperium also had an expensive new homeland defense fleet doctrine announced anchored on black ops battleships, so there was a ramp up in producing those, which no doubt had some impact. I’ll probably return to the doctrine in another post as I bought one of those ships myself.
There was also the Winter Nexus event in play during the holidays, which tends to see a rise in player presence in the game.
As always, the life’s blood of New Eden, the thing that keeps the economy alive and pumping out replacement ships and modules.
November saw 31.44 trillion ISK in destruction recorded, about on par with October, with the following regions in the top ten:
- The Forge – 1.97 trillion
- The Citadel – 1.46 trillion
- Pochven – 1.31 trillion
- Lonetrek – 1.25 trillion
- Pure Blind – 1.22 trillion
- Delve – 1.11 trillion
- Vale of the Silent – 1.05 trillion
- Metropolis – 1.02 trillion
- The Kalevala Expanse – 963 billion
- Sinq Laison – 909 billion
December saw destruction rise slightly to 33.2 trillion ISK in value, with the top regions being:
- The Forge – 2.17 trillion
- Lonetrek – 1.76 trillion
- The Citadel – 1.65 trillion
- Pochven – 1.41 trillion
- Vale of the Silent – 1.31 trillion
- Sinq Laison – 1.08 trillion
- Delve – 1.08 trillion
- The Kalevala Expanse – 1.03 trillion
- Metropolis – 990 billion
- Pure Blind – 910 billion
Regions surrounding Jita, along with Pochven, seem to be holding on to the top spots.
In November trade in New Eden was valued at 562 trillion ISK in value, down about 30 trillion ISK from the October number, which in turn was down about 16 trillion ISK from September, a post war trend where reduced destruction, increased prices, and CCP imposed scarcity continue make their combined weight felt.
The top ten regions were mostly the usual suspects:
- The Forge – 408.56 trillion (Jita)
- Domain – 43.03 trillion (Amarr)
- Delve – 17.67 trillion (Imperium)
- Sinq Laison – 14.65 trillion (Dodixie)
- Lonetrek – 14.17 trillion (Caldari High Sec)
- Metropolis – 9.22 trillion(Hek)
- Heimatar – 6.90 trillion (Rens)
- The Kalevala Expanse – 6.43 trillion (PanFam)
- Insmother – 4.27 trillion (FI.RE)
- Vale of the Silent – 4.08 trillion (Fraternity)
December saw a reversal of the downward trend as players join in on the Winter Nexus, which injected quite a bit of ISK into the economy, as we’ll see in a moment. So the total trade amount went up by 42 trillion ISK from November, totaling 604 trillion ISK in value, putting it about on par with the September number.
Again, the usual suspects inhabit the list, though there is always one wildcard region:
- The Forge – 428 trillion (Jita)
- Domain – 49 trillion (Amarr)
- Lonetrek – 18.7 trillion (Caldari High Sec)
- Delve – 16.87 trillion (Imperium)
- Sinq Laison – 16.06 trillion (Dodixie)
- Metropolis – 10.21 trillion (Hek)
- Heimatar – 7.45 trillion (Rens)
- The Kalevala Expanse – 6.54 trillion (PanFam)
- Vale of the Silent – 5.16 trillion (Fraternity)
- Essence – 4.62 trillion (Gallente High Sec)
Time for two months worth of money talk… that means clips from two charts before I get going.
Once again, a curse on whoever made those charts with such tiny text.
But for the two months the big numbers, in trillions of ISK, were
- Commodity – 38.6
- Bounty Prizes – 22
- Incursion Payouts – 12.2
- ESS Bounty Payouts – 9.4
- Trig Invasion Payouts – 7.6
- Agent Mission Rewards 3.1
- Commodity – 46.7
- Bounty Prizes – 24.7
- Incursion Payouts – 13.2
- ESS Bounty Payouts – 9.2
- Trig Invasion Payouts – 8.6
- Agent Mission Rewards 3.1
That adds on to the sinks and faucets over time chart for December.
There you can see the effect of the Winter Nexus event as commodity payouts went up by about 8 trillion ISK in December. With the commodity faucet chart below you can see that the Overseer Personal Effects were dropping from the event, so those became the top commodity in December.
I expect that, come the January MER, should we get one, that commodities will be boosted once again, this time by the Doctor Who cross over event which, among other things, drops items you can turn in for ISK.
Meanwhile, on the NPC bounties front, November saw a total 29.28 trillion ISK paid out according to the regional stats, which are again not in alignment with the faucets numbers up above. Missing regions from the data? Maybe. The top regions were:
- Vale of the Silent – 2.22 trillion (Fraternity)
- Delve – 1.88 trillion (Imperium)
- The Kalevala Expanse – 1.60 trillion (PanFam)
- Fountain – 1.49 trillion (Imperium)
- Detorid – 986 billion (FI.RE)
- Esoteria – 970 billion (AOM)
- Outer Passage – 891 billion (TEST)
- Malpais – 887 billion (PanFam)
- Oasa – 886 billion (Fraternity)
- Querious – 847 billion (Imperium)
December saw the NPC bounty payouts rise slightly to 30.09 trillion ISK, though again the regional stats are not aligned with the faucets listing above. The top regions were:
- Vale of the Silent – 2.17 trillion (Fraternity)
- Delve – 1.77 trillion (Imperium)
- Fountain – 1.56 trillion (Imperium)
- The Kalevala Expanse – 1.35 trillion (PanFam)
- Tribute – 1.05 trillion (Fraternity)
- Malpais – 1.01 trillion (PanFam)
- Catch – 921 billion (Imperium/Others)
- Oasa – 919 billion (Fraternity)
- Querious – 918 billion (Imperium)
- Outer Passage – 811 billion (TEST)
We have a series of usual suspects here as well now I suppose. Vale and Delve have been vying for supremacy for a while now, but there are some other regions in the running.
As noted above, I saved mining for last because it is the most complicated this time around.
Just for openers, CCP seems to have dropped the short term economic indices chart, which was a bit more granular, so I will swap to the all time chart, which at least gives a historical perspective.
As you can see, mineral prices, while down from their peak, remain at an all time high thanks to scarcity.
And, when it came to mining, November was a normal month… well, a month in what had become normal with minerals being reduced by 90% over the last year. 37.77 trillion ISK in mineral value was mined, with the top regions being:
- Delve – 1.99 trillion (Imperium)
- Vale of the Silent – 1.93 trillion (Fraternity)
- Fountain – 1.52 trillion (Imperium)
- Insmother – 1.42 trillion (FI.RE)
- Detorid – 1.18 trillion (FI.RE)
- Malpais – 1.06 trillion (PanFam)
- Etherium Reach – 1.03 trillion (PanFam)
- Providence – 980 billion (somebody lives there I guess)
- The Forge – 961 billion (High Sec)
- Genesis – 935 billion (High Sec)
Then came December and the imposition of the New Dawn permenant austerity plan, and things start to get screwy.
First, the original December MER.
The regional stats showed that a mere 16.48 trillion ISK in value was mined in December, less than half of November’s total, with the top regions looking like:
- Vale of the Silent – 853 billion (Fraternity)
- Delve – 849 billion (Imperium)
- Fountain – 810 billion (Imperium)
- Outer Passage – 652 billion (TEST)
- The Forge – 651 billion (High Sec)
- Malpais – 648 billion (PanFam)
- Metropolis 546 billion (High Sec)
- Domain 545 billion (High Sec)
- Querious – 476 billion (Imperium)
- The Kalevala Expanse – 461 billion (PanFam)
Not a single region with over a trillion ISK mined, something of a milestone.
However, then there is the mined/produced/destroyed data, which is used to generate that chart I use every month to look at production. That data says that 27.55 trillion ISK in mineral value was mined in December.
Quite a disparity. There are a couple regions missing from the December regional data, but that would not come close to explaining over ten trillion ISK worth of mining output. Could it have been the new waste mechanic in action already? If so, it was a bigger nerf than expected.
People pointed this out to CCP as proof that the New Dawn continuing austerity plan was killing off mining. The CCP response was surprise… because they never check the data before they post it… and then denial. A chart was posted in the MER discussion thread to show that mining was in fact up, though what the chart actually represented was unclear and no underlying data was included.
Then last Thursday we got the updated December MER and… well… some things changed and some things did not. The mined/produced/destroyed chart and data were unchanged, still indicating that 27.55 trillion ISK in mining was done in December.
But there were some new, more granular charts. Per the update:
The Mining Value by Region data has been replaced by eight new graphs showing Asteroid Ore, Moon Ore, Ice, and Gas Volumes mined – as well as the residue numbers. You can expect this information for all future Economic Reports.
My first thought was that this was going to turn this into an apples vs. oranges comparison where CCP could claim whatever they wanted. But at least we were getting some new data to work with. Or so I hoped.
However, the result was different than I had expected. As part of the mining report change they altered the new charts so that they are measured solely in cubic meters mined. Apples, meet oranges.
Now, I will say that makes some sense when compared to the ISK value previously used, which had to reflect both volume and price fluctuations. However, it makes every cubic meter or ore mined equal to every other, regardless of value. It also really draws a hard line in comparisons; there is what came before December and then there is everything going forward from December, and the two cannot really be compared because CCP says the old data is bad and measures the new data differently.
Also, the new data, sticking to the usual CCP script, is missing some regions. I’m sure somebody must be mining at least one moon in Omist, while the list of regions for gas mining seems noticeably shorter than its sibling graphs. And this is supposed to be the “good” data that CCP tells us they work with.
Also, as a further kick in the nuts, CCP did not include the raw data used to create these charts, so I had to pick the data out of the HTML versions. It also makes getting overall totals quite arduous when compared to just summing up a column in a spreadsheet. But that is the way that CCP wants it.
So now we have the following charts for December.
First there is asteroid mining by region.
The top ten regions for asteroid mining:
- Sinq Laison – 2.47 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Metropolis – 2.14 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Lonetrek – 2.03 billion m3 (High Sec)
- The Forge – 2.00 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Domain – 1.67 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Heimatar – 1.64 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Delve – 1.63 billion m3 (Imperium)
- Tash-Murkon – 1.35 billion m3 (High Sec)
- The Citadel – 1.28 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Essence – 1.18 billion m3 (High Sec)
Nine of the top ten regions are in high sec, but since CCP took away all the asteroid belts in null sec, Delve made the cut on mining anomalies I guess. Otherwise, that is just a thing mostly done in high sec.
Then there is asteroid mining over time.
First, the chart only goes back 12 months, so doesn’t provide as much insight as one might hope. That puts the data set mid-mining nerfs and in the middle of a null sec war over one of the otherwise most active economic regions, Delve.
Also, it isn’t shaping up to be a big increase in mining overall since the patch. Yes, some more mining was clearly done, but most of the increase went into residue, or waste as it ought to be called.
Then we have gas mining by region:
This is more mixed, with null sec, low sec, and high sec regions in the top ten.
- Delve – 12.68 million m3 (Imperium)
- Aridia – 11.40 million m3 (Low Sec)
- Fountain – 10.46 million m3 (Imperium)
- Placid – 10.37 million m3 (Low Sec)
- The Forge – 9.72 million m3 (High Sec)
- Lonetrek – 9.44 million m3 (High Sec)
- Vale of the Silent – 9.00 million m3 (Fraternity)
- Solitude – 8.63 million m3 (High/Low Sec)
- Cloud Ring – 7.94 million m3 (Misc Null Sec)
- Derelik – 7.03 million m3 (High/Low Sec)
Overall gas mining over time shows.
There is a spike in April as new gas mining options appeared and were part of the requirements for building battleships and capital ships. Once again, the volume does not appear to be up that much in December unless you allow for the wasted effort of residue indicated at the bottom of the chart.
Then there is ice mining by region.
The mix in the top ten is high and null sec regions, with the top ten being:
- Metropolis – 2.48 billion m3 (High Sec)
- The Forge – 2.42 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Delve – 2.34 billion m3 (Imperium)
- Vale of the Silent – 1.75 billion (Fraternity)
- Domain – 1.21 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Lonetrek – 1.21 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Fountain – 1.20 billion m3 (Imperium)
- Kador – 938 million m3 (High Sec)
- The Citadel – 676 million m3 (High Sec)
- Malpais – 631 million m3 (PanFam)
Overall ice mining over time shows the following.
September was when CCP put ice back in belts… which was timely because there was a huge capital fuel bind as thousands of capital ships were convoying home as World War Bee ended. Again, December doesn’t look exceptionally up from November, and is weighed down by the amount of waste being shown.
The big dip at the start of December is said to be a combo of a problem with ice belts spawning after the patch and the fact that the Winter Nexus event offered ice to mine and was considerably more lucrative than normal belts. The latter makes me wonder if CCP will attempt to steer the economy via events going forward in order to inject this or that into the economy. I mean, they have already straight up handed out ISK for a login event when numbers were way down, so why not ice or ore or whatever?
Finally, there is moon mining.
The top ten there were:
- Delve – 2.94 billion m3 (Imperium)
- Vale of the Silent – 2.49 billion m3 (Fraternity)
- Domain – 2.49 billion m3 (High Sec)
- The Forge – 2.02 billion m3 (High Sec)
- Outer Passage – 1.71 billion m3 (TEST)
- Fountain – 1.59 billion m3 (Imperium)
- Insmother – 1.54 billion m3 (FI,RE)
- Querious – 1.45 billion m3 (Imperium)
- Kador – 1.37 billion (High Sec)
- Genesis – 1.35 billion (High Sec)
Delve and Vale of the Silent are the top two regions, but they are followed by Domain and The Forge, which are both high sec regions, because moon mining is allowed in high sec in systems that have 0.5 security status.
Then there is the overall for moon mining.
Now here is the one segment where mining was, in fact, up. CCP has made a blanket statement that mining was up overall since the patch, but the data they have provided seems more accurately stated as moon mining was up and other areas were reasonably flat since the patch, the wasted effort represented by residue.
Anyway, new charts, new data, and a new year under way. We’ll see where this goes.