Category Archives: Fantasy Movie League

Summer Movie League – Scary Stories Rule

Week ten of our Summer Fantasy Movie League left me more than a bit surprised.

I had stated that last week, with the Hobbs & Shaw premier, that we might be past any “big weeks” that people could use to catch up, and then Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark went nuts.

I write these posts on Monday night when the data available is usually just the long range forecast from the previous week.  That and how FML prices things are about all I have to go when it comes to sizing things up.  Last week the the LRF had Dora way ahead of Scary Stories, and the FML pricing, which not as absolute, was still heavily tilted towards the young explorer.

But by the time Thursday rolled around and I needed to finalize my pick, Dora seemed on the outs while some watchers were saying that Scary Stories might get somewhere beyond $15 million.

At that moment I was still contemplating the doggies story The Art of Racing in the Rain.  I had gone with 7x screens of that for my Monday night pick.  But for the final I suddenly felt that Scary Stories was the better anchor.  So my Thursday afternoon final pick was 4x Scary Stories, 2x Toy story 4, 1x Aladdin, and 1x Annabelle Comes Home.

Come Friday morning when the last leagues locked and picks were visible to all, I knew I had made the right choice.  All of the top players in the FML league were anchored on Scary Stories.

Come the Saturday morning estimates Scary Stories looked like a winner, with a best performer bonus on top of exceeding its estimates.  Sunday morning only made Scary Stories look even better.  And come the final numbers… well, this is what the weekly scores ended up looking like.

  1. Too Orangey For Crows – $102,763,640
  2. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $101,787,156
  3. grannanj’s Cineplex – $99,082,063
  4. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $57,701,940
  5. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $56,424,809
  6. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $55,698,881
  7. Joanie’s Joint – $54,739,378
  8. Conical Effort – $49,606,778
  9. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $46,321,746
  10. Goat Water Picture Palace – $2,974,740

The perfect pick, which was unique to our league rule set once again, was 4x Scary Stories, 1x Hollywood, and 3x empty, which was worth just over $103 million with the $5 million perfect pick bonus.  Nobody went that route, but Bhagpuss got fairly close, taking the week.

There is an obvious gap in lineups.  Those of us who went in with 4x Scary Stories cashed it with around $100 million.  Everybody else who picked was in the $50 million range.  Even my 7x The Art of Racing in the Rain Monday night pick ran in that range, good for $59 million.  The doggie movie hit its $8 million mark right on the nose.

Po had the worst lineup of those who picked as The Kitchen under performed badly, falling behind the doggo movie.  Po was at least saved a bit by the $2 million per screen worst performer bonus, which was good for $10 million as he anchored on five screens of it.

Scary Stories breaking out and coming in second overall in the box office despite being 4th place in price skewed the week pretty badly.  So I was wrong last week, another big win was possible.  That can always happen when FML prices badly I guess, all of which left the overall scores looking like this.

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $970,641,595
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – $906,178,821
  3. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $828,960,056
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $818,267,149
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $812,750,401
  6. Joanie’s Joint – $785,312,850
  7. Conical Effort – $766,926,222
  8. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $700,887,078
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $686,935,038
  10. Goat Water Picture Palace – $557,351,870

At this point I look fairly secure in first and Bhagpuss in second.  Barring any sort of huge break-out box office… like Scary Stories again… it will be tough to assail either of us.  There does still look to be a reasonable fight for third place though.

The alternate scoring looks like this.

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 76
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – 69
  3. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 58
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 57
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 52
  6. grannanj’s Cineplex – 49
  7. Goat Water Picture Palace – 45
  8. Joanie’s Joint – 43
  9. Conical Effort – 41
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – 32

With the alternate scoring I am still well within range of at least the next four people if I pick badly.  Given that there are only nine of us picking regularly, the lowest point value anybody will get will be 2 points, which means if I pick very badly my score could be as low as 82 at the end of the final week.  Bhagpuss, Cyanbane, and Miniature could all theoretically pass me, while SynCaine could tie that score.  So I had best pick well.

All of which leads us to week eleven and the choices we all have.

  1. 47 Meters Down: Uncaged – $202
  2. Angry Birds 2 – $201
  3. Hobbs & Shaw – $174
  4. Good Boys – $171
  5. Lion King – $143
  6. Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark – $138
  7. Dora and the Lost City of Gold – $120
  8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – $93
  9. Blinded by the Light – $77
  10. Where’d You Go, Bernadette – $74
  11. The Art of Racing in the Rain – $55
  12. Spider-man: Far From Home – $44
  13. Toy Story 4 – $36
  14. The Kitchen – $31
  15. The Farewell – $22

Five titles got bumped from the lineup this week, with Brian Banks, Yesterday, Crawl, Aladdin, and Annabelle Comes Home all exiting.

Replacing those are five new films, none of which really strike a cord with me.

47 Meters Down: Uncaged is a sequel to the 2017 summer film that involved people stuck in a shark cage under water.  The original was notable for making a lot of money relative to its small budget, so we got a second entry.  This time around people are scuba diving in ocean caves and discover sharks, after which the whole survival/horror aspect no doubt kicks in.

The long range forecast is a modest $13 million.

Next up is The Angry Birds Movie 2, another sequel to another film from summers past.  The original was surprisingly successful, which means we get round two.  The long range forecast for the weekend was $17 million when last I checked, which might make you wonder why FML has it priced a dollar less than 47 Meters Down: Uncaged.  So there is clearly something in play here.

About $30 down the price list is Good Boys, a comedy about the simple plans of 12 year old boys going wildly wrong.  It has good reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far and the long range forecast puts it at around $13 million, which given the pricing here, seems to indicate that FML thinks 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is going to do better than its LRF.

Further down the list is Blinded by the Light, which I am just going to copy the description for:

Javed (Viveik Kalra) is a British teen of Pakistani descent, growing up in the town of Luton, England, in 1987. Amidst the racial and economic turmoil of the times, he writes poetry as a means to escape the intolerance of his hometown and the inflexibility of his traditional father. But when a classmate introduces him to the music of “The Boss”, Javed sees parallels to his working-class life in Springsteen’s powerful lyrics. As Javed discovers a cathartic outlet for his own pent-up dreams, he also begins to find the courage to express himself in his own unique voice.

It is tagged as “coming of age comedy drama.”  The LRF puts it at about $5.5 million.

And last on the new list is Where’d You Go, Bernadette, a “mystery comedy drama” based on a book of the same name with some reasonably big names in the cast.  The long range forecast puts it at $6 million, but you will note that FML priced it below Blinded by the Light.

This sort of chaotic pricing compared to forecasts means that there is opportunity… if you have some insight into what might exceed expectations and what might fall short.  Clearly the LRF isn’t to be believed, not after how often it has been wrong this season.  You can’t even trust it to be wrong in the right direction.  While it has over-estimated a lot of films, there were a few critical under-estimations too.

My own Monday evening plan was to be conservative.  The line up for that, 3x Hobbs & Shaw, 5x Hollywood.  I’m sticking with that unless I get some insight into the new titles.

Only two weeks left after this.  Get your picks in soon.  Next week features… *checks notes*… Angel has Fallen.  I’m going to have to read up on that one, as I have no clue from just the title.

Summer Movie League – Hobbs and Shaw and Pets

With the passing of week nine of our Summer Fantasy Movie League we have just four weeks left in the season.

And four weeks isn’t a lot of time to make up ground, especially since this past week might have been the last big week of the summer.

Or not.

Fast & Furious presents: Hobbs & Shaw was supposed bring balance to the box office or something… anyway, somebody said it was good for $90 million over the three day weekend.

Instead, it delivered $60 million which, admittedly was what the studio initially forecast, so I guess that means it only missed some expectations.  Maybe?  By Thursday morning people were dialing back on that $90 million number, but $75 million was still being floated.

All of which means that if you went in hard on Hobbs & Shaw you probably didn’t have a good week.  The ultimate commitment to the brand was to take advantage of the lack of empty screen penalty we have this season and anchor on two screens of the Friday showing.

I played with that sort of lineup during the week.  But as estimates started to soften I decided to go for a what seemed like a safer lineup.

When the Saturday estimates came it, it looked like safety paid off, an outlook that did not change with the Sunday estimates.

And, with the final numbers in, the scores for the week looked like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $78,074,303
  2. grannanj’s Cineplex – $73,114,102
  3. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $73,050,33
  4. Joanie’s Joint – $68,584,764
  5. Too Orangey For Crows – $59,788,055
  6. Conical Effort – $58,924,351
  7. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $55,436,530
  8. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $49,397,356
  9. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $48,967,508
  10. Goat Water Picture Palace – $8,745,264

I went from last place of those who picked last week to first place this week.  My lineup was 3x Hollywood, 1x Toy Story 4, 1x Yesterday, and 3x Secret Life of Pets 2.  The twist was that in last week’s post I declared that SLOP2 was going to be the worst performer, so I went with it for the $2 million per screen bonus.  Instead, it was the best performer.  Same bonus, but a bit more money on my score.

Grannanj was in second anchoring on The Lion King and Saturday Hobbs & Shaw, boosted by five screens of The Avengers: End Game, which did get the worst performer bonus.  That was worth an extra $10 million in that lineup.

Empty screens started at 6th place and hit heaviest with SynCaine, Po, and Hamster, who all anchored on two screens of Friday Hobbs & Shaw.

Goat did not pick this week.

The perfect pick had no Hobs & Shaw at all, being 1x The Lion King, 1x Hollywood, 1x Toy Story 4, and 5x Secret Life of Pets 2.  That was worth $84 million.

That left the season scores looking like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $868,854,439
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – $803,415,181
  3. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $771,258,116
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $761,842,340
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $757,051,520
  6. Joanie’s Joint – $730,573,472
  7. Conical Effort – $717,319,444
  8. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $654,565,332
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $587,852,975
  10. Goat Water Picture Palace – $554,377,130

Winning the week opened my lead a little bit more.  Cyanbane had the biggest change in the lineup, jumping ahead in the race for third place.

The alternate score ended up like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 67
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – 59
  3. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 51
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 51
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 47
  6. Goat Water Picture Palace – 44
  7. grannanj’s Cineplex – 41
  8. Joanie’s Joint – 39
  9. Conical Effort – 38
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – 30

Inertia keeps the alternate scoring from changing radically, keeping Goat mid-pack even after several weeks of not picking.  Still, it does seem to be lining up with the overall scores more so.

Which leads up into week ten with this lineup:

  1. Hobbs & Shaw – $445
  2. Dora and the Lost City of Gold – $369
  3. Lion King – $334
  4. Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark – $206
  5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – $171
  6. The Kitchen – $170
  7. The Art of Racing in the Rain – $133
  8. Spider-man: Far From Home – $81
  9. Toy Story 4 – $74
  10. The Farewell – $48
  11. Brian Banks – $45
  12. Yesterday – $26
  13. Aladdin – $20
  14. Crawl – $16
  15. Annabelle Comes Home – $7

That represents a big change in the options.  Even with Hobbs & Shaw collapsing down to a single pick, three titles were knocked off the list as well, Stuber, The Secret Life of Pets 2, and the long running Avengers: Endgame.  That means there are five new films hitting this week.

First up is a big screen adaptation of the children’s program Dora the Explorer.  I am kind of surprised, given the emphasis on Spanish the series has, that they didn’t go with “El Dorado.”   Maybe they were afraid I would roll up blasting that song on the Repo Man sound track or something.  Whatever.

Dora the Explorer, live action or not, is clearly a kids movie in a market where The Lion King and Toy Story 4 are still holding out in most multiplexes.  The long range forecast has the film at $28 million, which seems a bit generous, but would make it the biggest of the new releases this week.  That will still put it solidly behind Hobbs & Shaw unless it drops off more than 50% from last week.

Next up is Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, another adaptation, this time from a children’s book series.  As noted, kids movies are packed in right now, though this is rated PG-13 so it isn’t really a kids movie.  But is it enough of a horror movie to draw in that crowd?  It is a bit of a wild card to my mind.  The long range forecast for it stands at $11 million for the weekend.  Is that too tepid?

Then there is The Kictchen, which I had to go look up, but realized I had seen a trailer for it.  The name just did not stick.  This is a crime drama set in New York’s Hell’s Kitchen about the wives of mobsters who have to take over while their husbands are in jail.

The film has some names to support it, with Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish, esteemed character actress Margo Martindal, and that woman from The Handmaid’s Tale in thecredits.  But expectations seem modest.  I also think there might be some confusion here.  I am not saying that Melissa McCarthy cannot do serious work, but she is so associated with comedy that I think you might need to emphasize “comedy/not comedy” if she is your headliner.  The long range forecast last had it at $11.5 million, but FML priced it well behind Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, so govern yourself accordingly.

The Art of Racing in the Rain is the one new film this week that I have seen some traction from.  It is a Disney film, so the marketing budget is there I guess.  My recollections are mostly of a scene or a man driving in a red sports car with his dog and a race track where it is raining.  I didn’t really get that the main character in the film is the dog, voiced by Kevin Costner.  I guess that is why We Rate Dogs was all over this on Twitter.  The long range forecast puts it at around $8 million.  I guess a strong dog lover demographic could make this a wild card, at least if they know it is about the dog.  I didn’t.

And the last new film on the list is Brian Banks, the tale of an NFL football player of the same name who was falsely accused of rape, pled guilty to avoid a long prison sentence, and was later exonerated.  On the plus side, there is a strong story about how the criminal justice system uses its weight to extract guilty pleas from the innocent.  On the down side, I am not sure “false rape accusation” or “man beats rape charge” is going to play well in a world where Jeffery Epstein and Harvey Weinstein are in the news.  There is no long range forecast, but where it is priced I would be surprised if it managed to get past $2 million.

As it tends to be, here on Monday evening when I am writing this, the safe move seems to be a lineup like 2x Hobbs & Shaw, 1x Toy Story 4, and 5x Annabelle Comes Home.  The anchor does all the heavy lifting.

But if the feel good doggie film breaks out even a bit, say making it to $10 million, which it could do in the estimated 2,800 theaters it is supposed to launch in, then a lineup of 7x The Art of Racing in the Rain and 1x whatever fits in that last screen is hard to pass up.  But is that me just wish casting or can We Rate Dogs push this pic into best performer territory?  With a low review score so far, who can tell?

Whatever you plan to go with, get your picks in soon.  The league locks tomorrow evening.

Next week we face the wrath of Angry Birds Movie 2, indicating that the high days of summer are gone and that we’re just marking time as Labor Day approaches.

Summer Movie League – The Lion and Hollywood

Week eight of our Fantasy Movie League has come and gone.  I am in a day earlier than usual for this post because I already have the usual month in review post slated for tomorrow and in the probably vain hope that if I post a day earlier less people will forget to pick.

This week we saw Disney expected to dominate the box office again with The Lion King, while Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was set to open for a different audience.

There didn’t seem an obvious anchor, so I started off the week with what I considered a safe pick, 2x Saturday The Lion King, because it was still expected to be big enough to be worth splitting across three days.

I bounced back and forth between that and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but was not convinced that a long, R-rated QT film was going to break out despite the glowing reviews it was getting.  There are few things Hollywood loves more than itself, so the buzz felt like it could be as much about that as anything.  By the time the Thursday lock hit, I was back on The Lion King as I started.

And then Friday morning rolled around and showed Hollywood doing very well, so I quickly changed all of my unlocked picks to be to anchor on 1x Hollywood and 2x Spider-man, which did better than The Lion King as an anchor.  As the weekend bore on Hollywood seemed to be the winning anchor, with both Saturday and Sunday estimates going that way.

Of the people who picked this week, and only seven of us got our picks in on time, four went with Hollywood as an anchor while three went with The Lion King.

The results for the week looked like this:

  1. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $78,670,869
  2. Joanie’s Joint – $74,238,403
  3. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $74,164,982
  4. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $70,680,359
  5. Too Orangey For Crows – $70,010,961
  6. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $69,797,719
  7. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $68,964,454
  8. Conical Effort – $64,618,622
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $35,905,264
  10. Goat Water Picture Palace – $19,178,404

Even with Hollywood being a requirement of the perfect pick, for our league the rankings were mixed together, with less than $10 million between first and seventh place.  The clincher was the best and worst performers, Annabelle Creation and The Farewell respectively, which each brought $2 million more per screen with them.

Hamster won the week, boosted by three screens of Annabelle followed by Joanie who had two screens of The Farewell.  SynCaine, in third place, was the outlier anchor, with one screen of The Lion King and then four screens of Toy Story 4 as his anchor.

The bottom three on the list did not pick, though Conical Effort got a bit of luck in that his pick from last week rolled over and wasn’t completely out of the ballpark.  It was good that The Lion King remained split across three days.

That left the overall season scores looking like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $790,780,136
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – $743,627,126
  3. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $712,874,832
  4. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $701,614,990
  5. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $698,207,783
  6. Joanie’s Joint – $661,988,708
  7. Conical Effort – $658,395,093
  8. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $605,167,976
  9. Goat Water Picture Palace – $545,631,866
  10. grannanj’s Cineplex – $514,738,873

Despite having the worst actual pick of the week, I maintained my lead, though Bhagpuss closed the gap a bit.  Hamster pulled out in front in the race for third place with their win this week.  Two weeks of not picking have put Goat and Grannanj well behind the pack.

The alternate scoring is also changing up some:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 57
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – 53
  3. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 49
  4. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 43
  5. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 43
  6. Goat Water Picture Palace – 43
  7. Conical Effort – 33
  8. Joanie’s Joint – 32
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – 32
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – 27

Because the alternate scoring dampens the effect of big wins and losses, I’m just four points ahead of Bhagpuss, a gap that could be closed in a single week, while Goat is still mid-pack, in a 3-way tie for fourth place, even after two weeks missing picks.

So that is the way things rounded out for week eight, which means that we are off to week nine.

The week nine lineup is:

  1. Lion King – $572
  2. Hobbs & Shaw FRI – $483
  3. Hobbs & Shaw SAT – $353
  4. Hobbs & Shaw SUN – $284
  5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – $276
  6. Spider-man: Far From Home – $108
  7. Toy Story 4 – $97
  8. The Farewell – $53
  9. Yesterday – $42
  10. Crawl – $34
  11. Aladdin – $30
  12. Annabelle Comes Home – $13
  13. Stuber – $10
  14. Avengers: Endgame – $9
  15. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $9

This week the only thing to drop off the list was Midsommar, while the one new addition was Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw.

I was probably premature is saying that The Lion King was the last blockbuster in the season because we have a Fast & Furious movie here.  The problem for me, which may apply elsewhere, is that it has been billed as just Hobbs & Shaw various places, which didn’t spark any recognition.

Still, this spin-off from the main F&F story, featuring Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham, with Idris Elba as the villain, is slated to make around $90 million this coming weekend according to Box Office Pro, enough for the film to be split across the three days.

That leaves The Lion King as the most expensive pick, as it is expected to do better than any single day of Hobbs & Shaw, though Friday will be close.  That leaves a lot of variety in anchoring options.

My main question is how strong will Hobbs & Shaw really be?  I must be the wrong demographic because I cannot recall seeing any ads or trailers for this, and this summer I have been waist deep in ads for stuff like Stuber or the upcoming Angry Birds 2 movie.  So has there been enough build-up to support a $90 million weekend?  An early studio forecast had it at only $60 million.  Is just being related to F&F good enough for a 50% in the forecast?  Will this be another failure to meet expectations?

My Monday night lineup was 1x The Lion King, 1x Hobbs & Shaw Saturday, 1x Aladdin, and 5x The Secret Life of Pets, that last because it feels like it ought to have fallen off the list, so even at a $9 price it seems likely to be the worst performer, and we all love that $2 million bonus.  That seems like a safe-ish lineup.

But if Hobbs & Shaw is getting more hype than I have seen… are they running ads on League of Legends Twitch or some other place I never venture… then Friday could be a day worth picking.  Friday, Saturday, and then some filler… and we have lots of cheap filler this week… would be  strong.

Anyway, whatever you pick, pick soon.  Don’t forget to pick this week.  This could be the last big weekend, as there is nothing else on the long range forecast for the season expected to bring in more than $20 million.  It will be all The Lion King as anchor after this.

Summer Movie League – The Lion is King

Week seven of our Fantasy Movie League is now in the bag and it looks like the box office numbers broke their trend at last.

Well, sort of.  As I noted last week, at one point the estimates for the live action remake of The Lion King were as high as $200 million.  Then as the box office forecasts began to be overstated week over week, estimates got more conservative, dropping ast low as $130 million for the three day weekend, with $150 million being somewhat of a median.

So when the weekend totals starting showing north of $180 million there was much rejoicing.

On the FML front that meant anchoring on The Lion King was pretty much essential, as it exceeding its forecast meant this was a big money week.  It was also a very bad week to forget to pick, which happened to a few people.  Fortunately, everybody who did pick at least got in on some of that sweet Lion King action.

Come the Saturday morning estimates it looked like the Friday pick was going to be the best performer, putting SynCaine on top with his 2x Friday anchor.  I was jealous as to why I did not think of that.

Sunday estimates shifted things.  2x Friday was still good, but the perfect pick shifted to 1x Friday, 1x Saturday, and 4x Yesterday, the latter picking up the best performer nod.  Conical Effort had that lineup so was vaulted into first place.

But when the final numbers, the perfect pick changed yet again, ending up as 1x Friday, 1x Sunday, 5x Yesterday, and 1x The Art of Self Defense, the latter having been boosted in value by getting the $2 million per screen worst performer bonus.

That actually made it a different perfect pick from the standard rules, where 1x Friday, 1x Sunday, 5x Yesterday, and 1x Annabelle won the day.

The scores for the week ended up as:

  1. Conical Effort – $167,021,480
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – $163,570,810
  3. Joanie’s Joint – $161,622,694
  4. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $159,018,630
  5. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $157,421,782
  6. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $155,129,305
  7. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $150,821,653
  8. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $147,046,670
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $56,866,987
  10. Goat Water Picture Palace – $30,768,032

Conical Effort stayed in first place, even without the perfect pick bonus, with Bhagpuss not too far behind.  SynCaine’s 2x Friday pick fell a bit behind, but was still pretty strong, as was Po Huit’s bet on Friday, Saturday, and 6x The Art of Self Defense.  Cyanbane came in last of those who picked, hampered by only a single screen of The Lion King.  Goat and Grannanj were in the top ten, but with picks that rolled over from last week, which dealt a blow to both of their season scores.   It is tough to miss a week, and all the more so when it is such a big week.

And, finally, week seven saw the end of Ben’s streak.  He picked on week one, then stopped playing, but his full lineup, 3x Rocketman, 1x Avengers, 4x John Wick 3, was viable all the way through week six.

All of which left the season scores looking like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $721,815,682
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – $673,616,165
  3. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $634,203,963
  4. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $627,527,424
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $627,450,008
  6. Conical Effort – $593,776,471
  7. Joanie’s Joint – $587,750,305
  8. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $535,370,257
  9. Goat Water Picture Palace – $526,453,462
  10. grannanj’s Cineplex – $478,833,609

I kept out in first place, though Bhagpuss closed the gap a bit.  There is still a pretty tight race for third place.  But the biggest blow was to Goat and Grannanj who, failing to pick on such a big week, fell down the stairs into the basement.  It is a tough climb back from there.

The alternate scoring was a bit kinder.

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 53
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – 47
  3. Goat Water Picture Palace – 42
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 39
  5. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 36
  6. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 35
  7. Conical Effort – 30
  8. grannanj’s Cineplex – 30
  9. Joanie’s Joint – 23
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – 22

Another good week for Bhagpuss and he may be in first place in the alternate scoring.  Goat remained in third since their roll over picks were still enough to get a point.  But as with the seasonal score, there does seem to be contention for that third position.

We are past the half way point of the season.  Now for the first week of the back half we have the following lineup:

  1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – $545
  2. Lion King SAT – $440
  3. Lion King SUN – $370
  4. Lion King FRI – $334
  5. Spider-man: Far From Home – $173
  6. Toy Story 4 – $146
  7. Yesterday – $51
  8. Crawl – $46
  9. Aladdin – $39
  10. The Farewell – $33
  11. Stuber – $23
  12. Annabelle Comes Home – $16
  13. Avengers: Endgame – $15
  14. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $13
  15. Midsommar – $9

Men in Black International and The Art of Self-Defense both fell off the list.

The big new item on the list this week is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, a Quentin Tarantino alternate reality about Hollywood, the Manson Family, and the Tate/LaBinanca murders, which happened just shy of 50 years ago.  And since it is both Tarantino and alternate history, you shouldn’t expect things to work out the way they did back in 1969.

The long range forecasts have the take at around $45 million, the reviews are good, Tarantino has a strong following, the cast is well known, and a strong second weekend for The Lion King shouldn’t have much impact on the audience for this.  And, for once, he isn’t opening up against some other huge title, like Star Wars: The Force Awakens.  So it could be big.

On the flip side, $45 million is still a big take for an R rated movie, so it is not without risk.  At $45 million you have to have it, at something like $38 million you want another anchor.

The other new item on the list is The Farewell, and art house picture that seems pretty narrow in potential audience.  the reviews are good and its per theater take was high last week, though it was also only in four theaters.  The question is both how big its theater expansion will be and what sort of draw it will have among a more general audience.

Meanwhile, The Lion King still looms and is expected to have a big enough three day weekend that it remains split across three days for its second week.  In its second week Friday is now the low number in that mix with no previews to drive it.

So what to pick?

You can anchor on Once Upon a Time and have a screen of The Lion King, though it you pair it up with Saturday you get a three screen lineup with Avengers: Endgame and your budget is spent.  Worth it?  There is no empty screen penalty.

Or you double up on The Lion King and work on your filler game.

But maybe five screens of Spider-man are more your speed.

Even six screens of Toy Story 4 is a possible anchor, though it then gets tough to spend the rest of your budget.

Or you can mix it up.  There are lots of possibilities there.

Still, I think you have to be pretty contrarian to not have at least one screen of The Lion King in your lineup.

I don’t even have a lineup to share because I’ve changed my three times as I have written this.

Which ever way you go, get your picks in soon.  The league locks tomorrow evening.

Summer Movie League – Stuber Stumbles, Crawl Bawls

Week six of our Fantasy Movie League carried on the trend of new films failing to meet expectations.

In this case, the two new films for week six, Stuber and Crawl, both failed to hit the somewhat modest expectations set for them, keeping the summer theme going.

Stuber was expected to get in the range of $17 million, but ran out of gas about half way there, clocking in at $8 million.

Crawl was pegged at around $15 million and, while it didn’t fall off as badly as Stuber, it still came up short with $12 million, making it a less than ideal pick.

But I was fairly sure those were both bad anchors when I saw them.  And shortly after last week’s post went live the box office predictions began to sag dramatically, confirming that feeling.

That left Spider-man and Toy Story 4 as likely anchor candidates.  You could get 1x Spider-man and 1x TS4, or 3x TS4 before you had to start working through the filler.

Po, myself, and grannanj went with 3x TS4. while Bhagpuss, Hamster, and Cyanbane anchored on 1x Spider-man and 1x TS4.

With the Saturday and Sunday estimates, Cyanbane had the perfect pick, as he went with all Men in Black for his filler, which looked to be the best performer.  However, when the final numbers came in, Avengers: Endgame stole the best performer title, making the perfect pick 1x Spider-man, 1x TS4, and 6x Avengers: Endgame, and leaving the final scores looking like this:

  1. Too Orangey For Crows – $85,834,456
  2. grannanj’s Cineplex – $79,899,938
  3. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $79,610,550
  4. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $78,930,155
  5. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $78,396,66
  6. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $77,051,493
  7. Goat Water Picture Palace – $62,691,728
  8. Conical Effort – $61,416,139
  9. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $56,409,113
  10. Joanie’s Joint – $47,641,960

In the end, 1x Spider-man and 1x TS4 or 3x TS4 seemed to be on par as anchors.  The top six positions alternate between the two.  The key was filler, and Bhagpuss took the week because he had 3x Avengers: Endgame in his.

Seventh and eighth position were both anchored on 4x Crawl, which put them behind the pack, while ninth and tenth were both anchored on 4x Stuber.  Those two positions were revived a bit because Stuber got the worst performer bonus of $2 million per screen, making them $8 million better than they otherwise would have been.  The bonus for worst performer might be the best thing about this season so far.

That left the season totals looking like:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $570,994,029
  2. Too Orangey For Crows – $510,045,355
  3. Goat Water Picture Palace – $495,685,430
  4. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $480,480,754
  5. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $479,074,658
  6. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $468,431,378
  7. Conical Effort – $426,754,991
  8. Joanie’s Joint – $426,127,611
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $421,966,622
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $377,948,475

I managed to keep my lead, while Bhagpuss’ win this week, and Goat’s misfortune, had them swapping places.  Likewise, SynCaine and Joanie’s decisions to anchor on Stuber cost them in the overall ranking.

The alternate scoring looks like this at the end of week six:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 49
  2. Goat Water Picture Palace – 41
  3. Too Orangey For Crows – 38
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 34
  5. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 33
  6. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 28
  7. grannanj’s Cineplex – 28
  8. Conical Effort – 20
  9. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – 18
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – 16

I kept my lead going, though this week’s rankings put Bhagpuss and Goat in contention.

So now we get to see what week seven brings.  The lineup is:

  1. Lion King FRI – $481
  2. Lion King SAT – $399
  3. Lion King SUN – $341
  4. Spider-man: Far From Home – $177
  5. Toy Story 4 – $126
  6. Aladdin – $49
  7. Crawl – $43
  8. Stuber – $33
  9. Yesterday – $30
  10. Annabelle Comes Home – $23
  11. The Art of Self-Defense – $18
  12. Midsommar – $16
  13. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $13
  14. Avengers: Endgame – $11
  15. Men in Black International – $8

What week seven mostly brings is The Lion King. That gets split into three days which, along with the addition of The Art of Self-Defense, pushes Rocketman, John Wick 3, Child’s Play, and Godzilla off the list.

The Lion King is the latest in Disney’s effort to remake their entire animated back catalog into live action pictures.  It may also be the final $100+ movie debut of the summer. (It: Chapter Two, the next big thing on the horizon, opens on the first week of the Fall season.)

Whether or not you feel that the beloved 1994 animated version needed to be remade, this title is well known and being advertised heavily.  Long range forecasts are calling for as much as $200 million currently, which seems a bit crazy. FML, by their pricing, seems to be closer to $165 in its guess.  And even if it falls a bit shy of that, you will have to be pretty contrarian to not anchor on at least one screen of it this week.  Even critic comments like this:

…a well-rendered but creatively bankrupt self-portrait of a movie studio eating its own tail…

…will probably not bring the movie down.

And then there is The Art of Self-Defense, about which I know little.  The Wikipedia entry on it uses the terms “dark comedy,” “off-kilter,” and “thriller-esque,” but I’m still at sea on it.  FML pricing, a dubious thing on which to hang your hat most weeks, puts it at less than half of Crawl, and Crawl is probably going to drop by 50%,  so maybe $2 million in box office over the three day weekend?

My Monday night gut pick, straight from the FML Cineplex Builder, is FRI, SAT, 1x Aladdin, 2x Midsommar, 3x TSLOP2.  That used up my whole budget, so it must be a winner.  We’ll see if I hold onto that until Thursday night.

If you want to bet against The Lion King, then anchors on 5x Spider-man or 7x TS4 are possible, as well as mixes of the pair.

Anyway, there we go.  The league locks tomorrow night, so get you picks in now.

Summer Movie League – Spidey Continues the Summer Trend

Week five of our Summer Fantasy Movie League is over, and once again the top billed picture of the week doesn’t quite live up to the forecasts.

Which isn’t to say Spider-man: Far From Home did poorly.  $93 million is nothing to sneeze at.  But, again, the forecasts for the three day weekend were closed to $120 million.  Is there a slump going on here, or is Hollywood just too optimistic?

Of course it was also a goofy week if you were concentrating on the three day box office.  We had the Independence Day holiday on Thursday, so many people, including myself, took Friday off to make it a four day event.

To take advantage of that, both new films this week, Spider-man and Midsommar, opened earlier in the week, with Midsommar live on Tuesday and Spider-man opening with midnight showings once the calendar turned to Wednesday.  That spread out the opening totals beyond the weekend.

That also meant that what would normally have been the Thursday night previews, which count towards the Friday totals, went missing.  Spider-man, over five days, hit new heights world-wide for the franchise, but in the restricted world of FML that only cares about the three-day weekend, things were less buoyant.

And so the perfect pick of the week was anchored on three screens of Toy Story 4, while Saturday was the best performing day for Spider-man.

I actually set my lineup before the decision about whether or not previews would count, opting for Friday as my anchor and when I saw the red banner on FML saying that there would be no preview dollars I thought about changing to Saturday… but then forgot until it was too late.

Still, at least I talked myself out of going all-in on Midsommar.  That turned out to be something of a bust.  With the Saturday estimates it was the worst performer for the week, which in this league actually gives it a $2 million bonus.  It lost that position on Sunday, but regained it for the final tally, keeping a Midsommar heavy lineup from being a complete disaster.

All of which left the scores for the week looking like this:

  1. grannanj’s Cineplex – $119,426,550
  2. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $103,263,624
  3. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $103,095,404
  4. Goat Water Picture Palace – $100,200,869
  5. Too Orangey For Crows – $99,333,806
  6. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $97,351,254
  7. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $96,220,963
  8. Conical Effort – $96,063,499
  9. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $91,443,890
  10. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $91,053,408

For the first time this season the perfect pick was different for the TAGN league than for the standard rules.  With no empty screen penalty 3x Toy Story 4 and 3x Aladdin with two empty screens was the TAGN perfect pick, worth $135 million, while with standard rules the perfect pick was 3x Toy Story 4, 2x Aladdin, and one each of Avengers, Rocketman, and Godzilla, worth $132 million.

However, nobody got the perfect pick in the TAGN league.  Grannanj secured first place by anchoring on 3x Toy Story 4 but fell short of perfect on the filler.

The rest of us anchored on some variation of Spider-man, with Po Huit getting the gambler award for going all-in on Midsommar with just a single Friday screen of Spider-man.  The worst performer bonus kept that pick somewhat viable.

That left the top ten overall season scores looking like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $492,063,874
  2. Goat Water Picture Palace – $432,993,702
  3. Too Orangey For Crows – $424,210,899
  4. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $412,022,265
  5. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $402,023,165
  6. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $400,870,204
  7. Joanie’s Joint – $378,485,651
  8. Conical Effort – $365,338,852
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $342,066,684
  10. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $306,532,223

The week was big enough that there were a couple of position swaps, but not big enough for any radical change.  My big lead from last week stayed intact.

And then there is the alternate scoring for the season, which is starting to spread out a bit.

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 42
  2. Goat Water Picture Palace – 37
  3. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 29
  4. Too Orangey For Crows – 28
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 26
  6. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 25
  7. grannanj’s Cineplex – 19
  8. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – 18
  9. Conical Effort – 17
  10. Joanie’s Joint – 14

The alternate scoring is also starting to deviate from the overall scores some.  At least there were no ties this week.

So there we go, week five done and on to week six.  The lineup for that is:

  1. Spider-man: Far From Home – $588
  2. Toy Story 4 – $258
  3. Stuber – $213
  4. Crawl – $204
  5. Yesterday – $98
  6. Aladdin – $80
  7. Annabelle Comes Home – $63
  8. Midsommar – $43
  9. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $39
  10. Avengers: Endgame – $20
  11. Men in Black International – $24
  12. Rocketman – $23
  13. John Wick 3 – $19
  14. Child’s Play – $8
  15. Godzilla – $6

It is an off week, with no blockbuster landing in theaters.  It is also an odd week in that no titles dropped off the lineup.  Spider-man contracting to a single pick opened up two spots that were filled with the two new titles this week, Stuber and Crawl.

Neither of those are going to be big, given their opening week positions at third and fourth place.

I have seen a lot of ads for Stuber, though nothing that made me want to run out and see it.  It is what I would call a “Friday night film” at our house.  I have been trying to make a tradition out of watching something silly, stupid, or outrageous if we are at home watching a movie on Friday.  My wife isn’t all-in on that, but sometimes I can make it happen.  Anyway, I don’t have much to say about the movie itself, so I’ll borrow the premise line from the Wikipedia article:

A mild-mannered Uber driver named Stu picks up Vic, a grizzled detective who is hot on the trail of a sadistic, bloodthirsty terrorist. Stu soon finds himself thrust into a harrowing ordeal where he has to keep his wits, avoid danger, and work with his passenger while maintaining his high customer service rating.

With lots of advertising but no real star power behind it, the long range forecast is calling it at around $17 million.  But the forecasts have been over-optimistic pretty much all season, so you have to wonder about that.

Crawl, on the other hand, I only saw as a preview for The Dead Don’t Die.  It is an entry in the… umm… environmental action horror genre maybe?  It is Florida, a hurricane is coming, the flood waters are rising, alligators are wandering around town, and something horrible is in the crawl space under the house.  And, because it is Florida, somebody didn’t evacuate.

Again, no big star power and not as much advertising as Stuber, but it has the horror/disaster aspect that is always good for some box office.  The long range forecast puts it at $15 million, though that number is down considerably from when it started getting tracked.  It seems risky unless it gets some buzz.

So do you even bother with either of these films in your lineup?  Everything else on the list besides Spider-man is starting to age.  My Monday evening gut pick was 1x Spider-man, 1x Toy Story 4, 2x John Wick 3, and 3x Godzilla.  That seems safe, if not inspired, and spends the full $1000 budget.

I tinkered with anchoring on 4x Crawl, but I am not convinced it is worth the risk.  So I keep messing about with other options.

The league locks tomorrow night, so get your picks in.

Summer Movie League – Yesterday and Today

Well, it was one of those weeks for our summer Fantasy Movie League.

On the bright side, only one of the two new films this week failed to meet its forecasts, breaking that trend I suppose.  Annabelle Comes Home fell well short of what it was expected to do, turning in just $20 million instead of the expected $25-30 million.

Yesterday, on the other hand, exploded in the FML tradition of Boss Baby or Baby Driver, such that we ended up with a week where you either went all-in with seven screens of Yesterday or you got left behind.

That combo of events meant that this week I left most everybody behind because I somehow stumbled onto the perfect pick.  And I got it from the FML Cineplex Builder no less.

I had anchored on Annabelle Monday night, my Monday Night Hot Takes league picks anchored on two screens of that plus two of YesterdayAnnabelle opened on Tuesday, and by Wednesday morning the disappointment at the opening was already out there.  So I jumped off of that and anchored on Toy Story 4, thinking that was the safe bet.  I stayed there until Thursday afternoon.

On Thursday I read something that said Yesterday seemed to be poised to do as much as $12 million over the weekend.  I popped that number into the Cineplex Builder and it gave me the retro rock lineup of 7x Yesterday and 1x Rocketman.  I thought that was pretty funny, so I copied it to the FML league entry, just to have it to hand.  Then, as the day went on I decided that I needed to gamble a bit, so I copied that lineup across the board thinking I would likely die quietly.  Whatever.

And then Saturday morning rolled around and that lineup was the perfect pick.  More so, Yesterday seemed to be poised to do more than $12 million.  With Sunday the count got a bit higher.  And with the final totals in Yesterday was up to $17 million, leaving the week ended up looking like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $142,006,652
  2. Conical Effort – $98,115,080
  3. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $89,937,371
  4. Too Orangey For Crows – $87,704,759
  5. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $84,087,077
  6. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $80,297,568
  7. Goat Water Picture Palace – $75,893,259
  8. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $75,065,989
  9. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $69,219,846
  10. Joanie’s Joint – $64,157,258

So, yeah, all-in on Yesterday was the play of the week, the perfect pick.  It was worth $19 million a screen with the best performer bonus.

FML says that 1292 people got the perfect pick, and the highest score for people who had something besides Yesterday as their main anchor was around $110 million, and that was Annabelle and 4x Yesterday as anchors.

Conical Effort came in second anchoring on 2x Annabelle and 3x Yesterday, good for $98 million.  After that it was a mix of either Toy Story 4 or 2x Annabelle as anchors.  I was a bit surprised that Toy Story 4 wasn’t a safe anchor, but then nothing is when one picture blows up well beyond expectations.

That left the overall season score looking like:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – $388,800,250
  2. Goat Water Picture Palace – $332,792,833
  3. Too Orangey For Crows – $324,877,093
  4. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $310,579,275
  5. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $308,926,861
  6. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – $303,518,950
  7. Joanie’s Joint – $288,463,808
  8. Conical Effort – $269,275,353
  9. grannanj’s Cineplex – $222,640,134
  10. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $210,311,260

Yesterday vaulted me for third place to well out in front.  I wouldn’t consider myself safe.  Another Yesterday sort of week could come along in favor of somebody else.  But I am clearly the person to beat at the moment.

The alternate scoring ended up like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Qeynosian Kinetoscope – 33
  2. Goat Water Picture Palace – 30
  3. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – 27
  4. Too Orangey For Crows – 22
  5. Cyanbane’s Neuticles Viewing Party – 20
  6. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – 18
  7. Joanie’s Joint – 14
  8. Conical Effort – 14
  9. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – 14
  10. Ben’s X-Wing Exp(r)ess – 10

A first place finish was enough to get me into the lead, by the race remains tight there since you are limited to a maximum of ten points per week.

Now that Yesterday is behind us it is time to look at what is coming with week five.  The lineup is:

  1. Spider-man FRI – $365
  2. Spider-man SAT – $348
  3. Spider-man SUN – $275
  4. Toy Story 4 – $274
  5. Yesterday – $101
  6. Annabelle Comes Home – $88
  7. Midsommar – $85
  8. Aladdin – $59
  9. Men in Black International – $48
  10. The Secret Life of Pets 2 – $38
  11. Avengers: Endgame – $28
  12. Rocketman – $22
  13. John Wick 3 – $20
  14. Child’s Play – $17
  15. Godzilla – $9

Gone are Shaft, Anna, Late Night, and Dark PhoenixSpider-man: Far From Home has arrived.

Spider-man brings the Marvel Cinematic Universe back to the big screen yet again as Spider-man goes on the road to sling webs in Paris.  Or so I gather from the trailer.

Being in the blockbuster range, Spider-man has been split into three days, though with prices such that you can easily pair up days and still get a full eight screens filled.  Toy Story 4 still looms out there as a draw for kids on this US holiday weekend.

Well, US Independence Day (the holiday, not the movie) is tomorrow, so a lot of people will take Friday off for a four-day weekend.  That could drive numbers up if people go to the movies, or down if they go to the lake or the beach or whatever.

Other than Spider-man, there is one other new film on the list, Midsommar.   This is a real wild card, as there are no forecasts for it as yet, it hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, though reviews are very good, and it is a horror flick in what sounds a bit like the Wickerman vein, where tourist go to a rural location for a festival only to find out the grim and disturbing truth about the locals.  Horror films in the summer have a habit of taking off unexpectedly.

Midsommar seems priced a bit high given its outsider status.  FML seems to think it will do about $10 million based on where they put it.  But it could break out like The Dead Don’t Die or Yesterday.

So what to pick?

If you’re feeling that Spider-man will break the trend of disappointing opening weekends, the lack of an empty screen penalty means you can go FRI, SAT, SUN, and 1x Godzilla for the full effect.

Or you can get 2x FRI and some decent filler.  Maybe mix in some Aladdin, which has been holding very strong week over week.

But if you’re feeling Midsommar is going to be another break-out, then FRI, 2x Yesterday, and 5x Midsommar is possible, or maybe just FRI and 7x Midsommar if you think, as I do, that Yesterday had its moment and is now over-priced.

Which ever you go with, get your picks in soon.  The league locks tomorrow night.