Tag Archives: EEDAR

SuperData June Numbers see the Return of WoW

As we near the end of July SuperData Research has their monthly digital revenue chart for June available, so it is time to take a look at that.

SuperData Research Top 10 – June 2019

On the PC end of the chart some things stayed the same when compared to April and May.  Basically the top five titles remained in the same order.  The “LDFCF” remains solid.  Repetition is dull though, so the interesting part is slots 6-10.

World of Tanks, which seems to live in the 6-8 range, popped up one place to 6th as sales of Total War: Subsided.

In 7th position we have the return of World of Warcraft… or World of Warcraft West… what ever that means in the reporting sense.

WoW had gone missing from the chart in April and May, helping to cement speculation that the Battle for Azeroth expansion had been less than a success with the player base.  Even from where I sit it is hard to deny that mistakes were made.  But for June it is back.

Was that because the long awaited 8.2 patch and the ability to unlock flying in the expansion had finally arrived?  Did the approach of WoW Classic and the load tests get people to re-up?  Or did Blizz fiddle the numbers in April and May so that other titles from its stable would get attention?  One notable thing about those two charts is that WoW went away and Hearthstone appeared one month and Overwatch the next.  Blizz controls the data that is released on revenues, so this could have been an attempt to show they are not still just a one product company.  Or maybe not.

In 8th place if newcomer FIFA Online 3, followed by perennial bottom of the list contender DOTA 2, and Roblox, which pops onto the list every now and then, taking 10th place.

And, to quickly summarize, Fortnite and FIFA 19 maintained their spots at the top of the console chart, with GTA V continuing to place mid-pack (expect it to pop next month with the new casino update for online), while Pokemon Go, with anniversary celebrations kicking off in June, made it to 2nd on the Mobile end, up from 7th, while Candy Crush Saga fell from 2nd last month to 4th in June.

Basically I want to get back to PC topics and bring up an Overwatch revenue tweet from SuperData earlier this week that gave us the revenue build up for the game over its three years since launch.

Overwatch in-game spending

Leaving aside box sales, which I am sure followed the usual pattern of an early spike followed by a low rumble afterwards, Overwatch has successfully crossed the billion dollar mark.  That is a hell of an achievement.  It is interesting to see the PC side lead the console side by what looks like a ratio of 3 to 1.  I wonder if that also happens to represent the breakout of the player base.

But I am also reminded that WoW had multiple consecutive billion dollar revenue years over its life and, were Blizz to break out the numbers, I would bet that it is still good for more than half that much revenue during an expansion year and not a ton less for an off year.  The subscription model is still pretty good when you can make it work.  Or, if you don’t want to go that route, you might need to sell champions like League of Legends, which still surpasses a billion annually selling those and skins.

Again, Overwatch is a big success, but you can kind of see why it only makes the SuperData chart on rare occasions.  It stands among giants.

On to other things… like the NPD chart for June.  As always, the NPD chart combines PC and console titles, covers US domestic sales only, and is both retail and digital, but both categories are not available for everything on the list, as noted below.

  1. Super Mario Maker 2*
  2. Crash Team Racing: Nitro Fueled
  3. Mortal Kombat 11
  4. Grand Theft Auto V
  5. Minecraft
  6. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  7. Marvel’s Spider-Man
  8. NBA 2K19
  9. Mario Kart 8*
  10. Days Gone

*No digital data

The thing to note this month is how bizarrely different the two sets of charts are.   We can discount the digital titles that NPD does not appear to be getting data from, which is pretty much the entire PC column.   The only overlap is GTA V, NBA 2K19, and Days Gone, all like from console sales, and they aren’t even ranked in the same order.

Meanwhile, SuperData is clearly not getting data from Nintendo or, if they are, then digital sales are not as big on the Switch as they are on other consoles.  But the Switch is definitely on its own plane of existence.  Maybe they’re what is keeping GameStop alive these days.

For EEDAR’s social media impressions League of Legends fell off the list completely, with the top spot taken over by Fortnite, followed by Grand Theft Auto V.  The rest of the list included CS:GO, Overwatch, and MinecraftDOTA 2 also fell off the list this month.  Social media impressions do not correspond to sales, but are a measure of how much hype and talk games are getting on the various social media services.

Finally, news items included with the SuperData monthly report:

  • Crash Team Racing Nitro-Fueled has one of the best launches in genre history. We estimate Crash Team Racing sold 552,000 digital units worldwide in June despite launching late into the month, marking the second-best launch month of any racing game on console, behind Ubisoft’s The Crew 2 in 2018. Digital sales were likely boosted by the above-average download rates seen so far this year but also point to the sustained popularity of the Crash Bandicoot IP.
  • Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege‘s player base is as strong as ever. June was Rainbow Six‘s best month for Monthly Active Users and sixth-best month for in-game spending on the back of the Operation Phantom Sight update, despite the title being well into its fourth year. Total in-game revenue rose to $36.8 million across console and PC in June, an increase of 50% from May and 9% from June of last year.
  • Overwatch surpasses $1 billion from in-game spending. Blizzard’s MOBA shooter became the 64th game on either console, PC or mobile to generate over $1 billion from in-game content alone. Overwatch is also Activision Blizzard’s sixth IP to hit this mark, after World of WarcraftCall of DutyDestinyCandy Crush and Hearthstone.
  • Publishers are experimenting more with steep discounts. As the free-to-play business model continues to take mindshare in the industry, publishers seem more open to significantly lowering unit prices for catalogue AAA franchises in order to expand the player base. EA’s Sims 4 and Take-Two’s NBA2K19, two franchises that benefit immensely from add-on content purchases, both saw huge spikes in unit sales after prices were brought down below $5.

SuperData Sees Apex Legends Jump in Behind Fortnite

SuperData Research released their chart for February digital sales this week, so we have new data to gaze upon.

SuperData Research Top 10 – February 2019

On the PC end of the chart, the top four remained in the same positions we saw them in January, with League of Legends still in second place.

The interesting bit comes with fifth and sixth place, the race between Fortnite and the newly launched Apex Legends.

Apex Legends was on fire from the moment it launched, heading to a huge number of players very quickly.  SuperData posted a supplementary chart on Twitter about the quick growth of Apex Legends.

SuperData Research time to 50 million downloads

For all that speed and hype however, Fortnite managed to stay ahead of the bright new star of Apex Legends, grabbing fifth place while the new kid ended up in sixth.  Missing completely from the chart is last month’s sixth place finisher, PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds.  So maybe we know who took the hit on that front.

The rest of the chart is rounded out by World of Tanks, which climbed up a spot to seventh, DOTA 2, which went from tenth last month to eighth, Word of Warcraft, still flagged as “West,” which is down in ninth, and FIFA 19 Online, making its first appearance on the chart in tenth.

Also missing from the PC chart is BioWare’s Anthem, another big February launch.  However, unlike Apex Legends, a lot of what is being said about Anthem is negative.

In the middle on the console chart FIFA 19 and Fortnite held on to first and second place.  Then we have the two big February launches, Anthem and Apex Legends in third and fourth.  Then there is Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, holding on to fifth, keeping it on the upper half of the chart for three months running.  Down the list, Grand Theft Auto V stayed alive another month, clocking in at eighth.

On the mobile chart, the top five stayed the same, with Candy Crush Saga and Pokemon Go swapping positions compared to last month.  Of note is sixth place entry PlayerUnknowns Battlegrounds Mobile, the first time one of the mobile ports of a battle royale title has made the cut.

For comparison, EEDAR also has their list out for February, which mostly combines digital and retail, and which is US only, making it the orange to SuperData’s apple I suppose.

  1. Anthem
  2. Jump Force
  3. Kingdom Hearts III
  4. Far Cry New Dawn
  5. Red Dead Redemption II
  6. Resident Evil 2 2019
  7. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  8. Metro: Exodus**
  9. NBA 2K19
  10. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII**

*No digital data
**No digital data for PC

EEDAR’s report also shows Apex Legends topping the social media impressions, followed by Fortnite, League of Legends, CD:GO and DOTA 2.

Back to SuperData’s report for February, it contained the following supplementary notes on the digital video games market for February 2019.

  • Worldwide digital game spending returns to growth. Consumers spent $8.2 billion on digital games across console, PC and mobile in February, up 2% compared to February last year. Growth came primarily from mobile, which was up 9%. This more than made up for the 6% decline in premium PC, where the market continues to face a tough comparison against sales of PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds last year.
  • Apex Legends has the best launch month of any free-to-play game in history. Apex Legends generated an estimated $92 million from in-game spending across all platforms, with the majority coming from console. Despite this, Fortnite still came in above Apex Legends in the top grossing rankings.
  • Anthem makes over $100 million in digital revenue at launch. Anthem was the top-selling title by units on console in February, with an above-average digital download rate. In-game spending came in at $3.5 million across both platforms.
  • Hearthstone takes a sharper downward turn. Hearthstone revenue had its largest year-over-year decline ever this month, dropping 52% across PC and mobile, partly due to heightened competition within the genre and likely franchise fatigue.
  • NBA2K continues its exceptional run. Life-to-date through February, NBA2K19 in-game spending is up an estimated 42% compared to NBA2K18, showing some of the highest growth seen from any mature AAA franchise in recent years.

 

WoW West Returns to SuperData while EEDAR has a Different List

Two SuperData Research related posts in one week?  Well, we got the 2018 in review report before they showed up with the December numbers.  But do the December numbers fill in any gaps left in the annual report?

SuperData Research Top 10 – December 2018

On the PC side of the chart League of Legends and Dungeon Fighter Online remain in the top two positions.  However, Fortnite managed to bounce its way up one spot, into third position, passing Crossfire by, which dropped to fourth.

Battlefield V disappeared off the chart, but as a title that series tends to be one that spike quickly and then fades.  But speaking of things that disappeared, Fantasy Westward Journey Online II, long a staple of the list, went missing on the November chart but returned for December, taking that fifth spot.  As I said last month, it had been rolling around between fourth and sixth for quite a stretch, so for it to go away for November and then reappear in that range in December raises questions.  Did somebody just forget to send in the numbers?

Likewise, World of Warcraft, another resident of the chart since it took on its current form, also went missing in November only to reappear in December.  And, even more odd, we’re back to the “West” designation for it, something that .  Does that mean that the game is strong here but tanking in Asia?  Or are we seeing the results of Blizzard being cagey about what they report?

The East/West thing first showed up in the report for January 2017.  It was a surprise at the time.  Then for the February 2017 report it was combined again, though the report was revised after it was initially published.  The split returned again for the April 2017 report, then was dropped until this month’s report.

Again, having dealt with this sort of thing in another industry, I suspect that SuperData has to deal with the data that Blizzard, probably via Activision, gives them.  But why they should want to split the data is unclear.  Maybe the “East” data wasn’t ready yet and they wanted to make sure they didn’t miss another month on the chart?  Who knows.  I certainly don’t.  And, as I have said before, I wouldn’t bet money on any single chart’s data.  It is the trend over time that interests me more.  If WoW sticks on the chart in 2019 it might be okay to discount the disappearance in November.

Anyway, lacking a crystal ball I will just carry on.

In between Fantasy Westward Journey Online II and World of Warcraft sits PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds, holding its six place spot for another month.  At eight position is The Sims 4, down a spot from last month, but still very strong for the title.  Holiday sales must have been nice for it.

World of Tanks hung in there at ninth position, down one.  And then, in tenth place, there was a surprise appearance by Hearthstone, also wearing the “West” designation.  Are we seeing accounting issues or other problems with the Chinese government in that?  Strange times.

On the Console column Fortnite grabbed the top spot, followed by Nintendo’s release of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate for the Switch.  Red Dead Redemption 2 fell from first to fifth, but that still seems like a strong performance for the title.  And then the granddaddy of the list, Grand Theft Auto V, climbed up from ninth to six for December.  It just keeps on going.

Then at the Mobile end of the chart Honour of Kings grabbed back the top spot from Pokemon Go, which fell to second, while the six year old Candy Crush Saga proved its staying power once again by holding onto the third spot.

And so it goes.

As a comparison, EEDAR, part of NPD, has started sending me a monthly ranking for titles as well.  You can find the current list here.  Of course, it has PC and console combined, counts physical sales (which favors consoles more), doesn’t include mobile, and doesn’t include any digital sales for most titles, but it is another list, so I’ll put it in here as well. (Their chart isn’t as handy to take as a graphic so I’ll just write it out.)

  1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  2. Red Dead Redemption II**
  3. Battlefield V**
  4. NBA 2K19
  5. Mario Kart 8*
  6. Madden NFL 19**
  7. Super Mario Party*
  8. Pokemon: Let’s Go Pikachu*
  9. Marvel’s Spider-Man

*No digital data
**No digital data for PC

That is definitely a different list.  Without digital League of Legends, Fortnite, PUBG, anything from Blizzard, and anything from China just disappears.  I don’t think either list is “wrong” per se.  This is just what you get what you measure different things.  SuperData is only interested in digital sales while NPD is the old school “What’s selling at GameStop” measurement for the most part. (They also have point of sales based number for books and videos.)  As NPD puts it:

NPD’s U.S. top 10 games list, ranked by dollar sales, includes full-game digital sales (from participating publishers) as well as sales for physical formats sold at retail and online across console, PC and portable platforms.

While I cannot find it written out anywhere, I suspect that it the numbers may be US and Canada only as well.

EEDAR also has a full 2018 chart, which looks like this:

  1. Red Dead Redemption II
  2. Call of Duty: Black Ops IIII**
  3. NBA 2K19
  4. Madden NFL 19**
  5. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
  6. Marvel’s Spider-Man
  7. Far Cry 5
  8. God of War 2018
  9. Monster Hunter: World
  10. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey

*No digital data
**No digital data for PC

Again, if you compare it against SuperData’s 2018 list, which I posted on Tuesday, that is… different.  And the list formats are even similar, as EEDAR’s list seems to line up with SuperData’s Premium Games list, which included both PC and console.

A few items overlap, but EEDAR again misses completely on things like PUBG and GTA V because of digital sales.

Amusingly, further down in EEDAR’s report they talk about social media impression data, and that is dominated by games missing from their chart, specifically Fortnite, League of Legends, CS:GO, DOTA 2, and PUBG.  Go figure!

Other items from the SuperData report:

  • Worldwide digital spending declines 2% to $9.0 billion. December’s weakness came primarily from Premium PC, which fell 21% due to an unfavorable comparison against PUBG and CS:GO last year, as well as another single-digit drop off in mobile. This more than offset a 12% rise in console, where Fortnite drove a 209% increase in the free-to-play segment.
  • PLAYERUNKNOWN’s Battlegrounds and Fortnite end the year on a high note. Fortnite had its highest grossing month to date, while PUBG sold 2.75 million units across console and PC.
  • Super Smash Bros Ultimate is December’s best selling console game. We estimate that Smash Bros Ultimate sold 2.49 million digital console units, making it far and away the best digital console launch on the Switch so far.
  • Sims 4 benefits from end-of-year promotions. A significant price cut led to a surge in new unit sales on both console and PC. However, DLC revenue on PC declined year-over-year by 10%.
  • Battlefield V falls short during the holidays. EA’s shooter missed out on the top 10 console list this month after selling significantly less than competing shooter titles.
  • Counter Strike: Global Offensive finds early success as a free-to-play title. CS:GO hit a new MAU high point for the franchise in its second month as a F2P title. We estimate the free version generated roughly $49 million between November and December.

I generally do not comment on the other items from SuperData’s notes, but EEDAR has a different look at December.

  • Led by the record-breaking performance of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate and Nintendo Switch, tracked December sales reached $3.4B with growth of 2% when compared to a year ago.  Nintendo Switch also finishes the year as the best-selling hardware platform, while Red Dead Redemption 2 is the best-selling game of the year.

So SuperData, measuring digital only, says December was down while EEDAR, measuring mostly physical sales, says December was up, though the EEDAR number, $3.4 billion, was overall much smaller that SuperData’s $9 billion number.

Anyway, I’ll include EEDAR data as a comparison going forward if I can, though they are not as regular as SuperData, which is pretty consistent about dropping around the last week of the month.