Tag Archives: EVE Monthly Economic Report

More New Eden Numbers for 2019

There have been a lot of numbers thrown about with regards to EVE Online of late in attempts to prove all sorts of things like whether the Chaos Era or the blackout or tax rates or PLEX prices are helping the game, hurting the game, or whatever.  So I thought I would join in on the fun.

Being who I am, I don’t have a point I am trying to prove, and if you skip down to the end you won’t find any grand conclusions either condemning or congratulating CCP.  I just want to see what the data says… or, more likely, what it doesn’t say.

For my numbers I thought I ought to compare the extremes of 2019, so I figured I would put January of the year up against August.  When those two months?  August simply because it is the latest set of MER data we have, while January… well, January was the peak of what one might call “fat times in null sec,” when NPC bounties were paying out greater than ever before.  Look at this chart from the August MER.

August 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

You can see that NPC bounties reached their peak.  This was also a period of not much in the way of wars.  It also pre-dates not only the Chaos Era but also the series of nerfs to bounties and mining in null sec.  January might very well be the height of everything that people outside of null sec hate about it.  It was the peak of the Delve Time Unit.

As for the data I want to toss around, there are three things I want to look at, all of which I am taking directly from the MER data in the January and August reports.

The first is NPC bounties, because of course it is.  As I noted above, January was the absolute peak of NPC bounty largess and CCP has been trying to combat that for much of the year, with nerfs to anomaly spawns and fighter damage application and VNI changes and the blackout and the recent cyno changes to complicate defense group responses.  As I mentioned in my August MER post, those numbers have been declining over the course of the year.

  • January – 83.8 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • August – 21.1 trillion

August was basically 25% of the January total from the sinks and faucets table.

Unfortunately, I am working from the RegionalStats.csv file that is included with each MER, and the numbers there do not align with some of the other charts.  I get it.  You write your SQL query and you take your chances, and different queries can yield different results if you’re not careful.

Also, the region of Cache was missing from the January MER file, so I removed it from the August data so as to compare apples with apples to the extent I could.

With that data in play, the numbers are:

  • January – 84.8 trillion
  • August – 19 trillion

That puts August at about 22.39% of the January total.  However, looking at it in drops sorted out by region, the average/mean drop was 50.49% and the median drop was 49.38%.  That those two differ so much from the combined total drop seems to indicate that drops varied greatly by region.

Since I have that data broken out by regions, I thought I would look at the biggest and smallest losers.

For losers, here are the regions that took the biggest hits:

  1. Period Basis – 3.4 trillion to 20 billion ISK – 0.58% of January
  2. Outer Passage – 2.4 trillion to 80 billion ISK – 3.31% of January
  3. Branch – 6.9 trillion to 259 billion ISK – 3.75% of January
  4. Catch – 1.2 trillion to 52 billion ISK – 4.47% of January
  5. Wicked Creek – 2.1 trillion to 96 billion ISK – 4.54% of January

Period Basis, that was Red Alliance space back in January, though they fell apart and GSF took over, turning it into Imperium rental space and an alleged haven for bots, protected behind the bulk of Delve.  The blackout and bot banning took its toll there.

Outer Passage was another deep null sec spot reputed to be a haven for bots.

Branch was Dead Coalition’s ratting paradise back in January, where they were recovering their fortunes after the Keepstar War of last year.  Not quite as well protected as some regions, but well back from NPC space aside from a station in Venal.

Catch is home to Legacy Coalition alliances including Brave Newbies.

Wicked Creek has been held by Fraternity for ages, but they have apparently pulled back from it for ratting, at least relative to their core in Detorid, which we’ll get to.

The big winners were:

  1. The Kalevala Expanse – 190 billion to 400 billion ISK – 210.29% of January
  2. Genesis – 199 billion to 218 billion ISK – 109.81% of January
  3. Placid – 76 billion to 83 billion ISK – 108.79% of January
  4. The Bleak Lands – 14 billion to 15 billion ISK – 105.83% of January
  5. Tash-Murkon – 98 billion to 103 billion ISK – 104.76% of January

Basically, that is four non-null regions that stayed about the same and The Kalevala Expanse, which is the real outlier in the mix.  It has been held by Pandemic Horde since May of 2018, but was not well utilized for a long stretch.  It was going to be, and may still be, their rental empire.

Then there are what I have decided to call the benchmark sov null regions, which were held by the same groups throughout 2019 and how they fared:

  1. Cobalt Edge (Hard Knocks) – 2.0 trillion to 706 billion – 34.72% of January
  2. Delve (Imperium) – 12.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion – 33.92% of January
  3. Detorid (Fraternity) 5.5 trillion to 1.2 trillion – 22.19% of January
  4. Esoteria (TEST) 5.1 trillion to 1.0 trillion – 20.44% of January
  5. Providence (Provi) 860 billion to 71 billion – 8.26% of January

The wretched excess of Delve was curbed, but it did not fall as far as many, while Provi appears to have suffered quite a bit over the course of the year. Detorid looks to be right at the mean drop.

And then, finally, I also broke the regions of New Eden out into three different areas, Empire (both high and low sec, since Empire regions often include both), Sov Null, and NPC Null.  Broken out, here is how they compared:

  1. NPC Null – 749 billion to 620 billion – 82.77% of January
  2. Empire – 4.3 trillion to 3.5 trillion – 81.70% of January
  3. Sov Null – 79.7 trillion to 14.8 trillion – 18.62% of January

So the weight of the changes over the course of the year fell on null sec.  Of course, that is where the most of the bounties were.  Empire and NPC Null lack upgraded anomalies and don’t see capital or super capital ratting, so the NPC bounties are likely from missions and belt rats.

Looking at NPC bounty changes overall and broken out by the different areas:

  • All Regions Overall: 22.39% Mean: 50.49% Median: 49.38%
  • NPC Null Overall: 82.77% Mean: 76.59% Median: 76.93%
  • Empire – Overall: 81.70% Mean: 84.96% Median: 84.78%
  • Sov Null – Overall: 18.62% Mean: 22.57% Median: 9.24%

When the overall, mean, and median are close, that means that the change was spread pretty evenly.  When they vary, as they do with All Regions and Sov Null, that indicates that changes were uneven.

Basic conclusion is that NPC bounty changes affected Sov Null more than other areas.  I do not think that is a particularly controversial statement.  It is what we would expect having paid attention to the MERs during 2019.

Next up is mining, the other thing CCP sought to nerf in 2019.  Again, it is something that happens heavily in Sov Null, but it is also pretty big in Empire space as well.  The only problem is that the ISK numbers are based on mineral prices during the given time period, so January to August comparisons will be less indicative than NPC bounties, which are always in direct ISK value.  But let’s look anyway.

Overall mining in January brought in 58 trillion ISK in mineral value, an amount that fell to 28 trillion in August, just 48.47% of January.  But the average percentage, when look at per region change, was 76.19%, which means there were some big losers out there.  They were:

  1. Period Basis – 155 trillion to 91 million – 0.06% of January
  2. Outer Passage – 809 billion to 35.4 billion – 4.37% of January
  3. Branch 2.2 trillion to 106 billion – 4.81% of January
  4. Deklein – 1.3 trillion to 83 billion – 6.38% of January
  5. Perrigen Falls – 327 billion to 35 billion – 10.54% of January

There is at least some overlap between the NPC bounty and mining regions here, with Period Basis on top and Branch in the middle for both.

Likewise, the regions with the biggest gains have a pair of repeats:

  1. The Kalevala Expanse – 150 billion to 520 billion – 345.47% of January
  2. Omist – 126 billion to 378 billion – 300.29% of January
  3. The Bleak Lands – 133 billion to 202 billion – 151.82% of January
  4. Pure Blind – 149 billion to 220 billion – 147.19% of January
  5. Aridia – 166 billion to 240 billion – 144.44% of January

As noted before, TKE was underutilized back in January, while TBL, high sec space, saw something of a boost for both bounties and mining.  The surprise for me is probably Pure Blind… who even lives there to mine… and Aridia, as low sec doesn’t have a reputation for being a miner’s paradise.  But, then, none of those regions had big numbers to start with, no trillion ISK regions on that list, so the amount required to move the needle is significantly less.

[Addendum: During the Sep. 20 Open Comms Show Brisc Rubal said that The Initiative moved their mining ops to Aridia during the blackout, which explains that jump.]

And then there are my benchmark Sov Null regions:

  • Cobalt Edge (Hard Knocks) – 745 billion to 217 billion – 29.06% of January
  • Delve (Imperium) – 14 trillion to 3.6 trillion – 25.81% of January
  • Detorid (Fraternity) – 3 trillion to 415 billion – 13.48% of January
  • Esoteria (TEST) – 3.9 trillion to 1.5 trillion – 36.97% of January
  • Providence (Provi) – 405 billion to 122 trillion – 30.16% of January

All were down, with Detorid down the most, while Esoteria seemed to hang on better than the others.

Broken out by different areas of space, overall is all regions as a whole, mean and median are per region changes:

  • All Regions Overall: 48.47% Mean: 76.19% Median: 75.61%
  • NPC Null Overall: 70.94% Mean: 63.77% Median: 65.66%
  • Empire – Overall: 99.99% Mean: 103.34% Median: 104.91%
  • Sov Null – Overall: 31.37% Mean: 60.01% Median: 36.27%

Mining isn’t down as much as bounties, but it is still down.  Empire space was the least affected over the course of the year, with January and August numbers looking very similar.  That at least seems to cast some doubt on the “all the mining bots moved to high sec” theory I have seen.  But the picture is incomplete.  The change in mineral prices, which went up over the course of the year, means that it the totals are close then less ore overall was mined.

Finally, the third thing people have brought up quite a bit is destruction.  The purpose of the blackout was, among other things, supposed to bring more destruction to New Eden.  Or so some people were loudly declaring.  Maybe it was just to frighten botters.  Anyway, we’ll look at those numbers.

Overall destruction in New Eden, according to the data I am using (and we know the data isn’t always complete as noted here) has January pegged at 40 trillion ISK and August at 39 trillion ISK, which is probably withing the margin of error for CCP data.  That would be an almost Ivory Soap-like 99.41% change.  That the by region mean change was 129.22% indicates that different areas saw different results over time, but the median was still a nice solid 96.21%, which is pretty close to the overall change.

So where were the big increases?

  1. Fade – 113 billion to 1.4 trillion – 1265.61% of January
  2. Omist – 76 billion to 414 billion – 544.21% of January
  3. The Kalevala Expanse – 278 billion to 777 billion – 279.66% of January
  4. Genesis – 402 billion to 910 billion – 226.64% of January
  5. Verge Vendor – 168 billion to 363 billion – 216.71% of January

I have no idea what was going on in Fade, which is a problem with a lot of these numbers.  And a big increase like that will skew your data when you look at it in region sized chunks.  Still, something was going on.  It was also interesting to see that destruction followed utilization in TKE, it having made the top increase in all three areas.

The last two regions are in high sec.  More ganking maybe?

At the other end, where did destruction drop off?

  1. Period Basis – 491 billion to 26 billion – 5.30% of January
  2. Geminate – 2.4 trillion to 380 billion – 15.68% of January
  3. Perrigen Falls – 372 billion to 81 billion – 21.78% of January
  4. Outer Passage – 387 billion to 93 billion – 23.95% of January
  5. Cloud Ring – 383 billion to 151 billion – 39.57% of January

Again, it is nice to see some consistency, with the drop off in ratting and mining on Period Basis there was a corresponding drop in destruction.

Geminate was where Pandemic Horde used to live.  Perrigen Falls and Outer Passage are both in the upper drone region, a place reputed to be a botting home.  And then there is Cloud Ring.  I blame The Initiative and Snuffed Out for whatever happens up there.

And how about the benchmark Sov Null regions?  Any changes there that correspond to anything we have seen so far?

  • Cobalt Edge (Hard Knocks) – 395 billion to 699 billion – 177.02% of January
  • Delve (Imperium) – 1.8 trillion to 1.5 trillion – 85.86% of January
  • Detorid (Fraternity) – 1.2 trillion to 1.6 trillion – 137.20% of January
  • Esoteria (TEST) – 613 billion – 860 billion – 140.39% of January
  • Providence (Provi) – 765 billion – 843 billion – 110.24% of January

Unlike Period Basis, there is no corresponding drop in destruction relative to the decrease in ratting or mining.  Somebody took it upon themselves to get out to Cobalt Edge and blow things up. Detorid and Esoteria are also part of an ongoing war in the east, which muddies the water a bit.  Providence saw a bit of a bump.  And then there is Delve, the only one of the bunch that saw a decrease, though at both ends of the measure it saw the most absolute destruction.

Destruction broken out by different areas of space, where overall is all regions as a whole, mean and median are per region changes:

  • All Regions Overall: 99.41% Mean: 129.22% Median: 96.21%
  • NPC Null Overall: 79.61% Mean: 74.70% Median: 76.72%
  • Empire – Overall: 110% Mean: 118.98% Median: 103.41%
  • Sov Null – Overall: 92.29% Mean: 145.77% Median: 88.00%

NPC Null saw a drop, the data shows that it fell in every region, Empire stayed about the same, with some outliers, and Sov Null saw the widest variety of change.  But there are more Sov Null regions than the other two areas combined, so that seems likely.  But the overall numbers didn’t show much change.

So what do all of these numbers mean?  I don’t know.

My daughter is currently taking AP Statistics, so I am trying to show the same restraint I have tried to instill in her when it comes to jumping to conclusions based on data that may not tell a complete story.  It is easy to infer meaning at a glance that is not really there.

There are certainly some consistent stories in the mix, like those of Period Basis or TKE, where a changes followed a nice pattern.  The stories of those regions seem clear.  But others are less so, which points to the need to know what was actually going on in any given area before drawing any conclusions about it based on the data here.  And everything should probably be overlaid on some sort of user online report to give some hint if more people online end up with more ratting and mining and destruction as part of things.

Still, I think there is some value in looking at the data, if only just to get a sense of what is changing where.

For this post I put the data from the August and January MERs into their own Excel spreadsheet, which you can download if you like.

Of course, I started doing this last weekend just because, then got it queued up to post this week after the Ragefire Chasm three-parter, only to find Rhivre at INN also wanted to throw lots of data around this week as well.  She goes into more depth, talks about more things, and generally does a much better job than I bothered to do, so if you want to wallow in numbers you should probably go check that out.

The August MER and the Fall of NPC Bounties

We got the Monthly Economic Report for July somewhat late last month, but this month CCP has the MER for August out already, so it is time to take a look.  And the big chart for the month is the sinks and faucets.  That will be my main focus this time around.

August 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

There are a few items of significance on that chart.

Up front, for the first time in a long time, sinks out paced faucets in the game, with just shy of 64 trillion ISK coming into the game from faucets but almost 70 trillion ISK leaving the game via sinks.  That, plus the Active ISK delta, which includes ISK removed via GM actions, saw 49 trillion ISK leave the New Eden economy in August.

The big change continues to be falling totals from NPC bounties, which dropped to a recent low of 21.1 trillion ISK for August.   There has been a pretty consistent drop so far in 2019, with NPC bounties at about a quarter of where they stood in January.

  • August – 21.1 trillion
  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion
  • January – 83.8 trillion

And where were those bounties being harvested?  20% of it was in Delve, which is back at the top of the list for NPC bounties since the Imperium pulled back home back when the Drifters started hitting.

August 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

Most every region was down, with some more than others.  The top ten regions for August were:

  1. Delve – 4.39 trillion
  2. Insmother – 1.30 trillion
  3. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.05 trillion
  5. Querious – 753 billion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 705 billion
  7. Metropolis – 543 billion
  8. Omist – 526 billion
  9. Fountain – 515 billion
  10. Malpais – 514 billion

Compare that with the list from July:

  1. Delve – 4.71 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 1.77 trillion
  3. Branch – 1.61 trillion
  4. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  5. Deklein – 1.22 trillion
  6. Insmother – 1.10 trillion
  7. Tenal – 1.1 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.06 trillion
  9. Omist – 850 billion
  10. Feythabolis – 810 billion

Delve remained on top, and five others remained on the list, four new regions made it into the top ten, including a high sec region, Metropolis.  Metropolis didn’t make the top ten due to a huge surge in bounties.  It rang in at 529 billion ISK in July, so was only up a bit.  It made the cut because just about every other region fell.  Of last month’s top ten, only Detroid stayed about the same.

That meant the percentage of bounties claimed in high sec went up as the bounty totals went down.

August 2019 – NPC Bounty Percentage by Sec Status

Zero, high, and low sect were 81.7%, 15.9%, and 2.4% respectively.  The balance in July was 88.7%, 9.9%, and 1.5%, while in June it was 93.6%, 5.6%, and 0.8%.  Given that the August NPC bounty total was less than half of June’s, this appears to be much more a matter of null sec totals being reduced rather than any large increase in the other areas of space.

Continuing on with NPC bounties, they also used to be the biggest number on that sinks and faucets chart, often obnoxiously so.  With the coming of the August MER, two other numbers have passed bounties.

The first item is NPC Commodities, items that drop from sleepers or combat sites or Abyssal Deadspace that can be cashed in via NPC buy orders in select stations.  I honestly don’t know a lot about this, save for the Triglavian Survey Database that drop from Abyssal Deadspace.  And, honestly, CCP isn’t much help on this front.  Look at this chart.

August 2019 – Commodities Breakdown

According to that 14% of the commodity income is from Overseer’s Personal Effects, 25.7% is from “Other,” none is from Sleeper Components, so I guess wormhole space makes no money anymore,  and 60.3%, or roughly 14 trillion ISK of the total, isn’t accounted for at all.  I suspect this is a matter of CCP Quant having created these reports and, when he left, people assumed they would just need to run his script and everything would be fine and nothing would ever change and it isn’t anybody’s job to fix this so the reports will just get comically out of whack over time.

Such is the way of things.  If nobody owns it, nobody is going to fix it.

These commodities, whatever they were, brought in 23.8 trillion ISK to the New Eden economy, putting them ahead of the 21.1 trillion ISK brought in by NPC bounties.

But this wasn’t any rush away from null sec or NPC bounties.  Commodities have been stable, or even down a little bit (the number was almost 26 trillion back in January), for most of the year.  NPC bounties have just fallen below where commodities have lingered.

The other item on the sinks and faucets chart that now exceeds NPC bounties is actually a sink.

In late July CCP announced an increase in transaction taxes and brokerage fees, which came into effect at the start of August.  This saw transaction taxes collected jump from 11.6 trillion ISK in July to 22.1 trillion ISK in August, putting the number ahead of NPC bounties.

So basically two things changed on that initial chart, transaction taxes went up and NPC bounties continued to go down.  This is visualized on the sinks and faucets over time graph.

August 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

NPC bounties, after a steep drop, seem to have leveled off, while transaction taxes saw a sharp spike… downward, because faucets go up and sinks go down on this chart.

Alright.  Off the sinks and faucets chart, I thought I would take a side trip into another old favorite, which is mining value per region.  Again, Delve is at the top of the chart still.

August 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions on that chart, and the value mined, are:

  1. Delve – 3.62 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.59 trillion
  3. Esoteria – 1.46 trillion
  4. The Forge – 1.40 trillion
  5. Querious – 1.10 trillion
  6. Sinq Laison – 1.02 trillion
  7. Lonetrek – 972 billion
  8. Metropolis – 895 billion
  9. Everyshore – 777 billion
  10. Tash-Murkon – 773 billion

For null sec, that is basically the Imperium in Delve and Querious and TEST in Esotaria.  The other seven are high sec.  I had to go look up Everyshore region, because I could not recall it ever being mentioned anywhere.  But DOTLAN says it is a thing, a part of Gallente empire space.

That put null sec way down compare to the number from July:

  1. Delve – 5.77 trillion
  2. Querious – 3.18 trillion
  3. Esoteria – 2.61 trillion
  4. Syndicate – 1.99 trillion
  5. Fountain – 1.92 trillion
  6. Etherium Reach – 1.77 trillion
  7. Domain – 1.69 trillion
  8. Malpais – 1.64 trillion
  9. The Kalevala Expanse – 1.61 trillion
  10. The Forge – 1.47 trillion

The rumor was that mining botters simply moved en masse to high sec to with the coming of the blackout.  I can’t say that this proves it, but it certainly seems to support the suggestion.  I guess those roving Triglavian scouts need to start working harder.

And that drop in output, it wasn’t related to a price drop in minerals.  According to the economic indices, mineral prices remained flat, so those numbers are a reasonable month over month comparison.

August 2019 – Economic Indices

I might have skipped past mining this month, what with the NPC bounty thing, but I figure those numbers might be relevant next month.  As you may know, earlier this week the September update introduced the big cyno change, the latest in the Chaos Era campaign.

I suspect that next month, when we get the September MER, we will see NPC bounties dropping even more as the big coalitions that have depended on super capital umbrellas to stay safe have asked their super and titan ratters to stay docked while new defense strategies are worked out.

Likewise, Rorquals are probably staying safe for now, though I know in the Imperium they are free to get back to work, but only if they stay in certain systems, get in the standing fleet, have a specific fit, and have an alt in a force recon with a cyno cloaked up and ready to bring in the cavalry should somebody drop on you.  The upside is that if you follow the new rules, you get SRP if your Rorqual dies.  Or Goons get SRP.  In TNT we just get yelled at.  But I don’t own a super or a Rorqual, so I only know what gets pinged out over Jabber.

So look in next month for another drop.

Meanwhile, you can go grab the full August MER, which is chock full of additional charts and data and what not, if you want to peruse that at your leisure.

Others looking at the MER:

MER and the Blackout

Somebody finally got back from vacation and pushed the button to generate the EVE Online Monthly Economic Report for July.

This is the first report that reflects the Blackout and the VNI nerfThe tax increase didn’t go in until August 1st, so that will be for the next report.

Anyway, there is an obvious graph to jump into first, so here we go.

July 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

It is easy to see what day the Blackout began on that chart as the yellow NPC bounty payout line, already down considerably from previous changes this year, fell off a cliff, no doubt contributing to an actual reduction in overall ISK in the New Eden economy.

July 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

The total bounties for the last few months:

  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion

But where did it hit hardest?  Last month the top 11 regions, since I wanted to include Delve, sorted out as follows.

  1. Branch – 4.90 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 3.56 trillion
  3. Detorid – 2.88 trillion
  4. Insmother – 2.71 trillion
  5. Deklein – 2.70 trillion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 2.15 trillion
  7. Fountain – 1.96 trillion
  8. Tenal – 1.80 trillion
  9. Perrigen Falls – 1.70 trillion
  10. Period Basis – 1.67 trillion
  11. Delve – 1.57 trillion

Delve was way down because the Imperium was deployed to the north and attacking structures in Tribute and Vale of the Silent.  And then came the Drifters and the start of the Chaos Era and we pulled back home.  Being at home put the Imperium back on top of the NPC bounties rankings.

July 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions for July were:

  1. Delve – 4.71 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 1.77 trillion
  3. Branch – 1.61 trillion
  4. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  5. Deklein – 1.22 trillion
  6. Insmother – 1.10 trillion
  7. Tenal – 1.1 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.06 trillion
  9. Omist – 0.85 trillion
  10. Feythabolis – 0.81 trillion

Delve is at the top again, but that number is still below even the April number, which included a the start of the deployment north to Tribute.

So the Chaos Era has hit NPC bounties, though there was a bit of a bounce back up at the end of the month.  August will show if things continue down that path or if null sec adapts.

Then there is the mining front.  Last month the top producing regions in ISK value mined were:

  1. Esoteria – 3.31 trillion
  2. Detorid – 1.84 trillion
  3. Insmother – 1.78 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.31 trillion
  5. Branch – 1.25 trillion
  6. Querious – 1,19 trillion
  7. The Forge – 1.16 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.12 trillion
  9. Sinq Laison – 843 billion
  10. Metropolis – 829 billion

Delve was down in 22nd place with a mere 276 billion ISK.  Again, June had the Imperium deployed to the north, so economic activity was down.  But in July everybody was back home to face the Blackout.

July 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Delve was resurgent, with Rorquals out using tech II mining drones to combat attacks on excavator drones.  The top ten regions for July were:

Delve – 5.77 trillion
Querious – 3.18 trillion
Esoteria – 2.61 trillion
Syndicate – 1.99 trillion
Fountain – 1.92 trillion
Etherium Reach – 1.77 trillion
Domain – 1.69 trillion
Malpais – 1.64 trillion
The Kalevala Expanse – 1.61 trillion
The Forge – 1.47 trillion

Numbers were up in some places, including high sec, which remains a safe mining haven, and down in others.  But was there more necessarily more mining in places like Domain or The Forge?  Maybe not.  Since mining isn’t an ISK faucet, it is valued via the market prices, which change over time.  And July saw mineral prices going up some more.

July 2019 – Economic Indices

While not up as sharply as in June, mineral prices continued to rise.  That raises the value of ore mined for the purposes of the MER and encourages more people to mine.

And then there is destruction.  The Blackout was premised on greater destruction happening.  And, overall, there was more destruction in New Eden.  The summary of all regions in June showed 38.28 trillion ISK in destruction, while July saw that rise to 40.73 trillion ISK, and increase of 2.45 trillion ISK.  But where did that destruction occur?

Last month the top regions were:

  1. The Forge – 3.46 trillion
  2. Detorid – 2.31 trillion
  3. Sinq Laison – 1.69 trillion
  4. Tribute – 1.58 trillion
  5. The Citadel – 1.54 trillion
  6. Black Rise – 1.37 trillion
  7. Delve – 1.28 trillion
  8. Placid – 1.11 trillion
  9. Lonetrek – 1.10 trillion
  10. Vale of the Silent – 1.10 trillion

The chart for July shows the new ranking.

July 2019 – Destruction Value by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions were:

  1. The Forge – 2.81 trillion
  2. The Citadel – 2.33 trillion
  3. Detorid – 1.86 trillion
  4. Delve – 1.78 trillion
  5. Sinq Laison – 1.47 trillion
  6. Domain – 1.31 trillion
  7. Lonetrek – 1.29 trillion
  8. Metropolis – 1.17 trillion
  9. Providence – 1.03 trillion
  10. Cache – 1.00 trillion

Delve is up, but that was expected with everybody home again.  What is interesting is that there are now more high sec regions on the list.  There were four last month, but six on the list in July.  You might credit this to the alleged war on high sec, or maybe the less well known structure war in high sec, which is a topic for another post, except that not all the high sec regions saw more destruction.  The Forge, home of Jita, was more than half a trillion in destruction.

It feels rather that destruction was more spread out in July, that the increase was the result of a wider spread skirmishes rather than the destruction of ratters and miners due to the Blackout.  And, of course, the reduction in mining and ratting seems to indicate that many players simply declined to undock due to the Blackout.

All of which leaves me bereft of big conclusions.  But that is to be expected I guess.  The Chaos Era changes modified player behavior, but will it stick or are we just in a transitional period while people adapt?  And while NPC bounties were down a lot, they remained mostly a null sec thing. Null sect saw 88.7% of the bounties in July, compared to 93.6% in June.

June vs. July bounty payout ratio by space type

For August we will have to see how the trend continues, along with what the change in tax rate does.  Plus we still have the coming cyno changes and something about wormholes that has some people freaking out, plus other things mentioned during the Fanfest Home keynote, which may impact the September MER.  We shall see.

Anyway, all the data and charts are available to download from the MER Dev Blog.  In addition, CCP has also introduced a Monthly Security Report about how many people they have banned and what they were banned for.

Also looking at the July MER:

 

The June MER and the Effect of War on Delve

CCP got out the Monthly Economic Report for June 2019 last week, apologizing for its lateness, though it has come out later in some recent months.  But as long as we get it I’m happy enough.

Every month I try to have a theme when I look at the MER, this month the theme is “What happens when the Imperium schleps up north for a war?”  With that we can look at what happens in Delve while they are gone and what happens in the regions where they show up.

We will start with mining, one area that Delve has consistently dominated since Goons tamed the region in the back half of 2016.  But last month?  Not so much.

June 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

The stack rank takes Delve out of the top… I was going to guess top five, but it almost fell out of the top FORTY regions when it came to mining.

The top ten regions for mining value in ISK were:

  1. Esoteria – 3.31 trillion
  2. Detorid – 1.84 trillion
  3. Insmother – 1.78 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.31 trillion
  5. Branch – 1.25 trillion
  6. Querious – 1,19 trillion
  7. The Forge – 1.16 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.12 trillion
  9. Sinq Laison – 843 billion
  10. Metropolis – 829 billion

And, way down the list, in 40th place, between Oasa and TKE is Delve.

  • Delve – 276 billion

That is down, way down, from the 4.9 trillion mined in the region during May, which itself was way down from the 9.8 trillion mined in the region during April, which in turn was down from the more than 13 trillion ISK in minerals mined in the region in the month of March.

So, without a doubt, the Imperium deployment put the reigns on mining in the region as those who ignored the fact that the supercap umbrella was gone paid the price in Rorqual losses.

Overall mining numbers looked like this per region.

June 2019 – Mining Value by Region

Mining was down in other places, so we should probably look at the mineral price index to see if some of the decrease in value was related to a drop in market prices.

June 2019 – Economic Indices

As it turns out, the mineral price index was up so, if anything, the ore mined was worth more, so less was needed relative to May.  Mineral prices still remain well below previous highs, but appear to be climbing slowly.

June 2019 – Economic Indices Long Term

Turning to NPC bounties, Delve fell out of first place last month, with Branch grabbing 5.6 trillion ISK in bounties to Delve’s 5.1 trillion ISK.  That changed further with June’s totals.

June 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

Delve did not fall as hard as it did on the mining front, but it still fell out of the top ten, landing in the eleventh position overall for NPC bounties, behind even the Imperium rental region of Period Basis.

  1. Branch – 4.90 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 3.56 trillion
  3. Detorid – 2.88 trillion
  4. Insmother – 2.71 trillion
  5. Deklein – 2.70 trillion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 2.15 trillion
  7. Fountain – 1.96 trillion
  8. Tenal – 1.80 trillion
  9. Perrigen Falls – 1.70 trillion
  10. Period Basis – 1.67 trillion
  11. Delve – 1.57 trillion

Overall NPC bounties actually picked up as the month headed towards a close, though overall NPC bounties remain down from recent peaks.

June 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

The bump at the end corresponds somewhat with the commencement of the Drifter attacks on null sec, when everybody pulled back home. During that first week of attacks the Drifters ignored those ratting and mining in anomalies, concentrating Upwell Structures and those who came within range.

Overall NPC bounties totaled up approximately 48.2 trillion ISK in payouts, down from the 55.5 trillion ISK in payouts delivered in May, and well down from the pre-nerf total for March, where 71.4 trillion ISK was paid out for NPC kills.

That led to an actual reduction in the money supply in game over the course of the month.

June 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

Faucets were down by almost 15 trillion ISK, though sinks were also down, coming in 8 trillion ISK less than in May.  However, the active ISK delta, which includes ISK seized by GMs for botting and RMT, was up 14 trillion ISK, leading in an overall reduction.

And, finally, since there was a war or two going on in null sec, we might as well look at the destruction numbers.

June 2019 – Destruction Value by Region

Stack ranking that by region ends up looking like this:

June 2019 – Destruction Value by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions saw the following destruction:

  1. The Forge – 3.46 trillion
  2. Detorid – 2.3 trillion
  3. Sinq Laison – 1.69 trillion
  4. Tribute – 1.58 trillion
  5. The Citadel – 1.53 trillion
  6. Black Rise – 1.37 trillion
  7. Delve – 1.28 trillion
  8. Placid – 1.11 trillion
  9. Lonetrek – 1.10 trillion
  10. Vale of the Silent – 1.10 trillion

The Forge, home of Jita, is also a nexus of high sec suicide ganking, and is always at or near the top of the list, was up from 3 trillion last month.  Detroid, where TEST and Fraternity were clashing, made it into second place, up half a trillion from May.

The war zone for the Imperium, Tribute, only managed to make it into fourth, even with some Keepstar kills.  There were no great battles of titans.  Likewise, Vale of the Silent, which also saw structures and ihubs attack, only made it into tenth spot.

Delve, with no supercap umbrella, was in seventh, down from second in May, with a decrease of 700 billion in destruction.

Other regions, The Citadel, Lonetrek, Black Rise, Sinq Laison, and Placid, see action from their proximity to trade hubs. (Domain, which covers the remaining trade hub, was in 11th place.)

And so it goes.  The war pulling so many people out of Delve had an impact.  But with the coming of the Drifters we all came back home.

The theme for the July MER, when it comes out, will be what the Drifters, who did end up hitting ratters and miners this month, and the blackout, did to the numbers.  I suspect that the day the blackout shows up and forward will be dramatic on that sinks and faucets chart.  We shall see.

As always, all the charts and spreadsheets that make up the MER are available from CCP if you want to wallow in the data.

Wartime MER Finally Sees Delve Eclipsed

It is time for another EVE Online Monthly Economic Report, as CCP released the May edition last week.

Going with my desire to give these posts a theme I am happy enough to have had one served up to me, which is the war in the north.  Back in mid-May the Imperium packed up their supercaps and titans and what not and took it on the road, ending up in a staging system in Pure Blind.

With that the word went out that the protective defense umbrella was gone and that anybody who undocked in Delve to rat or mine was doing so at their own risk.  Of course, despite this having shown up in every coalition channel I frequent, people missed it or ignored it and the slaughter in Delve has reflected that.  Lots of Rorquals down.  So The first chart up will be about destruction.

May 2019 – Destruction Value by Region Bar Graph

The charts either show the values clearly, but not well sorted, or sorted by values, but the values are not always clear.  But in grabbing the values from the raw data, the top five regions for destruction were:

  1. The Forge – 3 Trillion ISK
  2. Delve – 2 Trillion ISK
  3. Detorid – 1.7 Trillion ISK
  4. The Citadel – 1.6 Trillion ISK
  5. Tenerifis – 1.5 Trillion ISK

The Forge is, of course, the home of Jita a suicide ganking.  It is always at the top of the list.  Then there is Delve, where those not paying attention have paid the price.  Detroid and Tenerifis are locations where war has been running in the south, while The Citadel is another prime suicide gank location.

Tribute, where we are bringing war, was down in 20th position with just 718 billion ISK in destruction for May.  Of course, I expect that to be up for the June report, since we didn’t start killing Keepstars until then.

Compare that top five with the April numbers.

  • Detorid – 2.3 Trillion ISK (war)
  • The Forge – 2.2 Trillion ISK (ganks)
  • Delve – 1.5 Trillion ISK (business as usual I guess)
  • The Citadel – 1.3 Trillion ISK (ganks)
  • Black Rise – 1.2 Trillion ISK (no idea, I thought low sec was dead)

Delve was up half a trillion ISK in May, and that was only half a month without the usual defense coverage, so it could be up further in June.  Jita ganking was up quite a bit as well.  I wonder if that has to do with war related shipping.

As for economic activity, Delve remained the top region for mining in May by a long shot.

May 2019 – Mining Value by Region Bar Graph

Again, the Delve defenses were down for less than half of the month, but still Delve pulled in 4.9 trillion ISK in value, while the next most active region, Esoteria, home of TEST, had 2.7 trillion ISK.

But that was a huge drop when compared to April, where Delve mining was valued at 9.8 trillion ISK and Querious, where the Imperium goes moon mining once a month, clocked in at 2.7 trillion ISK.  Esoteria was in third place with 2.4 trillion ISK.

Since mining value is based on the price of minerals, we have to see if that changed, which gives us another chart.

May 2019 – Economic Indices

Mineral values stayed flat, so the changes between April in May appear to be largely due to the volumes mined.  Delve mining was down quite a bit, no doubt to people deploying and those who didn’t getting blown up more often or having their excavator drones stolen, the latter being a tactic I read about recently.

But the real change comes with NPC bounties.

May 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region Bar Graph

For the first time since I started looking at the MER, Delve is not the top region when it comes to bounties.  Branch was in first place for May.

  1. Branch – 5.6 Trillion ISK
  2. Delve – 5.1 Trillion ISK
  3. Detorid – 4.1 Trillion ISK
  4. Insmother – 3.4 Trillion ISK
  5. Esoteria – 3.2 Trillion ISK

Branch is home to a few alliances that are part of Dead Coalition, formerly GotG.

Branch is actually down over a trillion ISK when compared to April, but Delve was down almost 3 trillion ISK in bounties over the previous month.  With that, and war coming to various regions in May, overall bounties were down significantly on the sinks and faucets chart.

May 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

That puts the bounties down to about a war time low in 2017, though not quite down to the Casino War level when the Imperium was homeless and then busy taking over Delve.

Total bounties across all regions were only down 2 trillion when compared to April, but May started with a pre-war peak before the line began trending down.

All of which sets things up for the June report, which will include a full month of war, destruction of ihubs and structures in Tribute, and all that goes with it.  I expect the ratting and mining numbers will be down even more so with that.  But not destruction.  Destruction should go up.

As usual, all of the charts and data are available in the dev blog for the May 2019 MER.

MER – Did Mining and Bounties Go Down?

So the previous two posts I have done about the EVE Online Monthly Economic Report were specifically to call out baseline numbers against which to measure the changes CCP made in March and April updates.

Last week we got the April MER so we can see if anything changed.  I began in February with NPC bounties, the biggest faucet in the game, so I will start there to see what happened.

Actually, even with the March report NPC bounties seemed to be going down, and the Top Sinks and Faucets chart seems to bear that out, that bounties were down.

April 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

The looks… promising.  Numbers were down a lot in March as the update changed anomaly spawn times, continuing in April as that update hit fighter damage application to subcaps and the VNI got reeled back in a bit.

April 2019 – ISK Sinks and Faucets

The Sinks and Faucets chart for April shows NPC bounties ringing in at 57.2 trillion ISK, which is down from the almost 70 trillion ISK in bounties paid out back in February.  The listing of bounties by region also shows some decreases.

April 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region

In Delve, the benchmark region that is always at the top of the list, NPC bounties were down by almost 3 trillion ISK in April when compared to the February numbers.  Branch, however, was up over the same period of time and, at 6.7 trillion ISK in bounties, appears to be racing to catch up to Delve.  So while there were fluctuations in the bounties across regions, it wasn’t universally down even if April rang in at only 82% of the February overall numbers.

That is a lot, but might be accounted for, at least in part, by other factors.  And, of course, the question remains as to whether or not that was enough of a drop?

And then there is mining.  Nerfs for that went in with the April update, specifically the yield of excavator drones, as well as some changes to the dynamics of Rorquals and their drones.  I highlighted the data from the March MER to give a before picture.

The initial chart looks pretty positive that this change had some impact.

April 2019 – Mining Value by Region

Delve, ever my benchmark region for economic excesses, was down considerably.  The March report showed 13.5 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in the region, while in April that number was down to 9.8 trillion ISK.  Going to the raw data to get the totals for all of New Eden showed the following:

  • Feb mining –  56.1 trillion ISK
  • Mar mining – 58.9 trillion ISK
  • Apr mining – 46.3 trillion ISK

With April ringing in at less than 80% of the March totals, it looks like there was some impact.

April 2019 – Economic Indices

Mineral pricing remained fairly flat in April.  That means that the decrease in the value of mined ore wasn’t due to a drop in mineral pricing.  However, it also seems to mean that the flow of ore was not stemmed sufficiently for demand to cause prices to rise.

So, as with the NPC bounties, we are left to wonder if there was enough of a correct to have any substantive impact on the overall economy of New Eden. (I also wonder about a couple of discrepancies in the data. Depending on which spreadsheet I pull data from, bounties may have been a bit higher and mining a bit lower.)

Next month the report for May should show some additional changes in output for both bounties and mining.  As I noted yesterday, the Imperium is deploying for a war and has started moving north en masse.  This means that the defensive umbrella in Delve will be mostly absent, save for a structure killing subcap fleet.  Smart Imperium pilots won’t venture out to rat and mine, while the ignorant or oblivious will be targets for hunters who will no doubt flock to the region in search of easy prey.

When the biggest producing region in New Eden goes on a road trip, the numbers are bound to fall, which will give me something to look at when the May report shows up.

 

MER Checking in on Mining before the Nerf

As I wrote last month, I am going to try to look at more specific aspects of the monthly economic report going forward.  We got the March report last week, just a couple days after the April update introduced a series of nerfs to both ratting and mining.  I took a measure of ratting last month, so this time around I want to get the “before” picture for mining.

March 2019 – Mining Value by Region

There was, as usual, a lot of mining going on in March, a good chunk of it in Delve.

March 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Delve is, of course, where the Imperium lives.  Second place goes to Esoteria.  Both regions were up over February.  Overall, according to the raw data that comes with the report there was about 56 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in February, which went up to just shy of 59 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in March.

The price of ore itself was up just a bit in March.

March 2019 – Economic Indices

I am not sure that is enough to account for the difference between the two months, but overall the count is close enough that the two months are pretty on par.  February being three days shorter than March could make up the difference.  Dividing the total amount by the days shows the per day yield tilted towards February, with 2 trillion ISK per day versus 1.9 trillion ISK per day in March.  Still, pretty close.

Last Tuesday the update hit with nerfs to Rorqual mining, specifically:

  • Reduced the bonus to shield boost amount provided by the Industrial Core to 60% for T1 Industrial Cores and 75% for T2 (was 120% and 140% respectively)
  • Reduced the base duration of the PANIC module to 4 minutes (was 5 minutes)
  • Increased the bonus to mining foreman burst strength provided by the Industrial Core to 30% for T1 Cores and 36% for T2 (was 25% and 30% respectively)
  • ‘Excavator’ Mining Drone base mining yield decreased to 80m3 (was 100m3)
  • ‘Excavator’ Ice Harvesting Drone base cycle time slowed to 310s (was 250s)
  • Excavator drone volume increased to 1100m3 (was 750m3) and Rorqual drone bay volume increased to 8800m3 (was 6000m3)

Reduced yield and slower cycle times for excavator drones are direct swipes at Rorqual mining efficiency.  Reduced PANIC duration makes Rorquals more likely to die while waiting for rescue to arrive and larger excavator drones means that Rorqual pilots won’t be able to stash so many excavators in mobile depots to save them from destruction.

The Rorqual also won’t provide as much protection to mining barges and exhumers in their fleets, though the mining yield for those craft will go up, an incentive to fly the smaller and more vulnerable subcap mining ships.

So the question is whether or not these changes will have any impact.  We will have to wait for the economic report for April to come out next month to see.

Meanwhile, going back to last month’s post, the top sinks and faucets chart shows bounties were down a bit, continuing the trend from February.

March 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

Overall February and March were not that far apart, being about 70 and 71 trillion ISK in bounties respectively, but the chart is trending down and the bounty payouts per day were almost 2.5 trillion ISK per day in February while that sank to 2.3 trillion ISK per day in March.  We will see if the April update changes, which hit fighter damage application against sub caps (which hurts carrier/super carried mining) and nerfs to the Vexor Navy Issue (the favored AFK anomaly sub cap) keeps that trend pointed down.

You can find the full March economic report here, which includes all the usual charts and graphs, plus the data used to generate them.