Tag Archives: EVE Monthly Economic Report

The March MER and the Mineral Squeeze

The EVE Online Monthly Economic Report for March 2020 arrived last week, so it is probably time for another peek into how the mineral starvation plan is changing things.

EVE Online nerds harder

Last month I looked at mining because February was the first month where the first phase of the mineral starvation plan had any impact.

Now, with the full month of March under our belt, we can look to see how things have moved along.  The first thing is the price of minerals.  Scarcity should drive that up, and it looks like that has gone as expected.

March 2020 – Economic Indices

The slope of the mineral prices line maintained a steep upward angle from February to March.  Mineral pricing will hit a three year high if it maintains that slope.  The pricing is even significant on the long term picture.

March 2020 – Economic Indices – All Time

We’re still well shy of an all time high, but it is within the realm of possibility I suppose.

As for where the mining is happening, in February overall mining totaled 28.6 trillion ISK in value and the top regions were:

  1. Delve – 2.40 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.68 trillion
  3. Oasa – 1.44 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.13 trillion
  5. The Forge – 1.11 trillion
  6. Feythabolis – 861 billion
  7. Sinq Laison – 821 billion
  8. Lonetrek – 791 billion
  9. Malpais – 748 billion
  10. Fountain – 729 billion

With March the total amount mined added up to 35 trillion is in value, with the top ten regions as:

  1. Delve – 2.92 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.60 trillion
  3. The Forge – 1.55 trillion
  4. Oasa – 1.27 trillion
  5. Esoteria – 1.17 trillion
  6. Fountain – 1.17 trillion
  7. Sinq Laison – 1.14 trillion
  8. Lonetrek – 1.05 trillion
  9. Metropolis – 971 billion
  10. Feythabolis – 958 billion

That is almost the same ten region (Metropolis replacing Malpais) and up for totals on average.  But with prices up even it the value of the amount mined was up that might still mean that the actual cubic meters of ore mined was lower, since every bit is worth more.

Delve was up the most, along with Fountain, which are both null sec regions that are heavily mined, especially when it comes to moon mining, which did not get its nerf until the end of the month when most basic ores and minerals were removed from moons.

In the run up to that I know that the Imperium set all moon extractions to a seven day cycle to get the most chunks harvested as possible before the big nerf hit.

And now that it has, there is no reason to think that a further shortfall in minerals will make the prices go anywhere save up.  So we shall see what the numbers look like in April when the starvation plan will be in full effect.

Likewise, with the nerfs to titans and super carriers that hit in early April, next month might be a prime time to take a look at NPC bounty numbers again in order to do some before and after comparisons.

But that will be next month.  Until then all the charts and data for the report are available from CCP.

The February MER and Initial Mining Changes

We ended up with a late in the cycle monthly economic report for February last week.  Some times they pop up in the first week and some times in the last week.

EVE Online nerds harder

While I have quit posting about the MER every month, in at least a general news sort of way, this was an MER I was waiting for as February saw the introduction of the plan to reshape the mining landscape of New Eden, kicking off with a radical nerf to asteroids.

The net result was fewer asteroids to mine in belts and anomalies, and the yield from the remaining asteroids was set to be much lower.  So I figured we might see some impact on the MER for February.

To assess impact however, you have to have context.  If I just tell you there was 28.6 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in February, that number has no anchor, no way in which to tell if that is big or small, up or down, or what might have had an impact.  So I grabbed the data from three MERs to see if we could see a trend.

For December the mining total was 30.2 trillion ISK, with the top ten regions being:

  1. Delve – 3.79 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 1.89 trillion
  3. Oasa – 1.35 trillion
  4. Malpais – 1.16 trillion
  5. Domain – 1.16 trillion
  6. The Forge – 1.02 trillion
  7. The Kalevala Expanse – 966 billion
  8. Querious – 965 billion
  9. Outer Passage – 933 billion
  10. Sinq Laison – 799 billion

The top four are null sec regions and are the locus of activity for four big groups, Imperium, TEST, Fraternity, and PanFam.  After that we get two high sec regions, Domain and The Forge, which also happen to host the top two trade hubs in the game, Amarr and Jita.  Then there are two subsidiary null sec regions for PanFam and Imperium, then a remote corner of null sec, then finally another trade hub region.

We’ll call that the new  normal for now.  During the Chaos Era the high sec regions around trade hubs rose on the lists, but have settled back down some.

In January there was a total of 34.5 trillion ISK in mineral value mined, with the top ten regions being:

  1. Delve – 4.09 trillion
  2. Oasa – 2.15 trillion
  3. Esoteria – 1.79 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.41 trillion
  5. The Kalevala Expanse – 1.28 trillion
  6. Fountain – 1.15 trillion
  7. Querious – 1.13 trillion
  8. The Forge – 1.11 trillion
  9. Malpais – 1.09 trillion
  10. Sinq Laison – 854 billion

Mostly the same cast of characters.  Outer Passage dropped out and Fountain, another Imperium subsidiary region.  There was also a war going in the north centered on Venal which may have drawn off some PanFam and Fraternity players.

And finally we get to February, the month of the change, when mining value totaled 28.6 trillion ISK in value and the top regions were:

  1. Delve – 2.40 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.68 trillion
  3. Oasa – 1.44 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.13 trillion
  5. The Forge – 1.11 trillion
  6. Feythabolis – 861 billion
  7. Sinq Laison – 821 billion
  8. Lonetrek – 791 billion
  9. Malpais – 748 billion
  10. Fountain – 729 billion

The top ten regions generally look to be down when compared to previous months, though the null sec regions listed all host organizations that went more fully to war around Venal in February.  That was when the Imperium deployed the new Goon Expeditionary Force there.

Meanwhile, the mining total for New Eden, while down some, doesn’t look to be down as far as one might expect given the radical nature of the nerf.  Why is that?

I think there are three things that play into that.

First, the change went in mid-month, so we do not have a full month of a starvation economy to look at yet.  If that is correct, the March total number should dip even further.

Second relates to how those numbers are calculated.  As I have oft repeated, minerals and ore are not ISK faucets.  They have no value in and of themselves.  There is no “minerals” line on the sinks and faucets graph.  You cannot vendor them for ISK.  So their value can only be measured by the market price.

How CCP comes up with that number is still opaque to me.  Their data shows it is based on two baskets of prices, one for high-en minerals and one for low-end.  But the specifics I do not know.  But I do know that if the price of minerals goes up then if people mine the same amount of minerals, then the value of the total amount mined will still go up.

So what has happened to the price of minerals?

February 2020 – Economic Indices

Mineral prices, that yellow line at the bottom, appears to be ramping right up from its nadir in November 2019.  Mineral prices are way up, as is the primary producer price index (PPPI) which is a measure of the cost to produce items and which tends to follow the price of minerals in its ups and downs.

That rise in mineral prices has likely softened the drop of the overall mined total as, even if there were fewer asteroids to grab, and they yielded less when processed, the market value of the end result was higher.  Tritanium, the most common mineral, was floating around 6.25 ISK per unit just before the change, while it was running over 7.60 ISK per unit at the end of the month.  That doesn’t seem like a radical change, but it had been down around 5 ISK in November and you need a lot of trit if you’re building things.

So, I suppose for this, we will have to see how things follow on with the March MER to get a good idea as to how hard this hit.  Or maybe April.

Why April?

I said there were three things that might play into this, and that was only two.  During February and March moon mining has remained a source of basic minerals.  That is changing.  CCP has announced that after all current moon chunk cycles are complete, basic ore and minerals will be largely removed from moon mining operations, the only exception being R4 moons, which are currently not worthwhile for much beside basic ore and minerals.  Those are getting nerfed too, but they get to keep a little of the basic stuff.

And you only have to fly through Delve with mining platforms visible on your overview to get a sense of how much moon mining might be adding to the basic mineral flow.  So while the March MER will be interesting, it seems like April will show an even greater change.

Friday Bullet Points about EVE Online and Bonus Skill Points

It is Friday and, despite not playing much in New Eden myself this month, I have accumulated a few items I want to mention about EVE Online.

  • More Bonus Skill Points

Another bonus skill point event starts today.

Bonus skill points are the best skill points

Log in daily from today through Monday and get some free skill points to spend on skills you need… or to hoard  for some potential future need.  Alpha pilots will get 75,000 skill points if they claim every day while Omega pilots will be eligible for 250,000 skill points.

  • PLEX For Good

The PLEX for Good campaign to raise funds for the Australian Red Cross is still going.  You can donate PLEX, the cash value of which will be donated, through until January 26th.  Details on how you do this are at the link.

PLEX for Good

There is also a Stream Fleet event coming this weekend to raise awareness for the efforts and drum up more donations.

  • Download Your Year in EVE

I wrote about the Your Year in EVE videos CCP produced already.  You can see one of mine again if you need a reminder as to what they were.

If you enjoyed your video and want to keep it, you need to download it by January 30th.  CCP will be purging them after that date.  Fortunately, each video has a link included that downloads an MP4 copy of the video to your system.  That format is pretty much ideal for uploading to services like YouTube, which is what I did.

Everybody who got a video should also be getting a reminder in the email about the videos going away, but it you don’t check that email account very often here is another reminder.

  • 64-Bit Client Transition Complete

Last year saw the introduction of the 64-bit client which promised to make EVE Online a better experience when it came to big space battles, or even smaller ones as you would no longer have to go into “potato mode” just to be sure the old client wouldn’t exceed the 32-bit memory limit and crash. (64-bit was also necessary for ongoing MacOS compatibility.  Apple doesn’t hang about supporting legacy features the way Microsoft does.)

Getting people to move to 64-bit went better than expected according to a Dev Blog from CCP, such that they have declared the transition complete.

Every dev blog gets a graphic

Because of this the old 32-bit client will be officially sunsetted on February 26, 2020.

In addition, the system requirements for EVE Online will be raised, with 4GB becoming the new minimum RAM requirement and 23GB being the new minimum drive space allocation.

  • December MER

The Monthly Economic Report for December 2019 is out at last, so now people have all the data for the year so they can explore what went on.

December 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time – Everybody’s favorite chart

The Nosy Gamer has already been at it.  I don’t have much to say myself and am giving up the monthly posts about the MER.  They got tedious when I was reporting on them generally, so I went to focusing on specific items each month, but I think most people find the whole thing a snooze, so I’ll just play with the data on my own.

  • I Won a Thing

In conjunction with the Year in EVE videos I mentioned above CCP ran a social media contest around the hash tag #MyEVE2019.  Winners were picked at random and so I managed to make the RNG cut with this tweet.

Winners all got 500 PLEX which was delivered this week and the promise of a special SKIN to arrive at some future date.  I am going to keep the SKIN of course, but I am sending off the PLEX to the PLEX for Good campaign mentioned above.

The November MER and the Surge in Outer Passage

The EVE Online monthly economic report is out for November so it is time to see if New Eden has settled down to a new “normal” now that the company seems to have finished with the “Chaos Era” and has laid off null sec nerfs for now.

The target for CCP for much of the year has been NPC bounty proliferation, so I we had best start there one more time.

November 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

NPC bounties appear to have settled at a new plateau that is a bit below where things had settled before the Chaos Era over the summer.  Chaos, with the Blackout, saw a very steep drop, but that recovered once local chat returned, with the cyno changes having a fairly small impact overall.  Blackout aside, the changes that CCP did between February and June appear to have had the biggest impact on NPC bounties.  The overall monthly numbers for 2019 so far:

  • January – 83.8 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • August – 21.1 trillion
  • September – 20.6 trillion
  • October – 41.5 trillion
  • November – 44.8 trillion

The surprise this month was which region ended up at the top of the list for NPC bounties.  The top ten regions for November were:

  1. Outer Passage – 6.30 Trillion
  2. Delve – 4.86 Trillion
  3. Branch – 2.95 Trillion
  4. Deklein – 2.91 Trillion
  5. Cobalt Edge – 2.51 Trillion
  6. Esoteria – 2.40 Trillion
  7. Fountain – 2.04 Trillion
  8. Tenerifis – 1.95 Trillion
  9. Omist – 1.50 Trillion
  10. Malpais – 1.35 Trillion

Delve, last month’s top of the list, was up a bit, having done 4.7 trillion ISK in October, but Outer Passage, went from third to first, jumping from 3.7 to 6.3 trillion ISK in bounties.

Who lives in Outer Passage?  Right now Circle of Hell owns most of the systems in the region, but Fraternity, evicted from the south, along with allies Blades of Grass and Lord of Worlds have moved into the south end of the region, and they have every reason to want to build up a fresh war chest now that they are being sheltered by PanFam and NCDot.

On the mining front things were more in line with the usual expectations, which is to say that Delve was at the forefront.

November 2019 – Mining value by region

The top ten region list for mining value in November was:

  1. Delve – 4.55 Trillion
  2. Esoteria – 2.43 Trillion
  3. Outer Passage – 2.00 Trillion
  4. Querious – 1.39 Trillion
  5. Domain – 1.14 Trillion
  6. The Forge – 993 Billion
  7. Malpais – 953 Billion
  8. The Kalevala Expanse – 910 Billion
  9. Feythabolis – 781 Billion
  10. Sinq Laison – 737 Billion

Compare that to the October top ten list:

  1. Delve – 3.7 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 2.2 trillion
  3. Querious – 1.19 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.19 trillion
  5. Fountain – 1.16
  6. The Forge – 1.1 trillion
  7. Malpais – 900 billion
  8. Lonetrek – 805 billion
  9. Cobalt Edge – 801 billion
  10. Metropolis – 795 billion

While Delve remained at the top, as with NPC bounties, Outer Passage again vaulted up the list, landing in third spot.  There is definitely some economic binging going on there.

Meanwhile high sec remained a viable mining location.  Overall, the amount of ore mined must have gone up fairly steeply, as not only are the numbers up for many regions, the price of minerals was down again for November, so the value or ore mined was less.

November 2019 – Economic Indices

While mineral prices are at a low point for recent history, the long term price indices shows that prices still remain above the all time low the New Eden economy saw back in 2010.

November 2019 – Economic Indices – Full History

The 2010 low point was related to the fact that, at the time, the drone regions in eastern null sec did not have NPC bounties.  Instead, the drone NPCs there, from which the area derives its name, used to drop minerals.  As such, to cash out of ratting there required hauling minerals to market in places like Jita.

As usual, you can find all the charts and the raw data available to download on the dev blog page for this MER.

Related economic posts:

The October MER and the Return of NPC Bounties

CCP has the Monthly Economic Report for October out, so it is our chance to see if things have continued to rebound since the end of the Blackout.  For that I will open with the same chart I did in September.

October 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

With the September MER we saw bounties begin a sharp climb.  This climb continued through October, tapering off a bit, but putting the NPC bounty numbers very close to their June pre-Blackout plateau.  That continued increase in bounties was more than enough to allow them to reclaim their past position at the top of the sinks and faucets chart.

October 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

Last month NPC bounties sat at just over 20 trillion ISK, so it doubled for October, hitting 41.5 trillion ISK, easily surpassing commodities.  Oddly, commodities spiked up a bit as well, jumping from 21.6 trillion to 28.4 trillion ISK in value.  But that was not enough to fend off the return of NPC bounties.

The top ten regions for NPC bounties in October were:

  1. Delve – 4.7 trillion
  2. Deklein – 4.0 trillion
  3. Outer Passage – 3.7 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 2.7 trillion
  5. Branch – 2.6 trillion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 2.4 trillion
  7. Fountain – 2.2 trillion
  8. Tenerifis – 1.9 trillion
  9. Oasa – 1.5 trillion
  10. Omist – 1.5 trillion

That is up noticeably from the September list, combined the end of the blackout and the cyno changes that took supers out of ratting for a short time.

  1. Delve – 2.2 trillion
  2. Deklein – 1.5 trillion
  3. Cobalt Edge – 1 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 975 billion
  5. Fountain – 957 billion
  6. Branch – 699 billion
  7. Oasa – 686 billion
  8. Detorid – 528 billion
  9. Tenerifis – 496 billion
  10. Insmother – 454 billion

However, the August numbers, which were just blackout influenced, were actually not as far off in Delve as in some regions.  The perks of organization.

  1. Delve – 4.39 trillion
  2. Insmother – 1.30 trillion
  3. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.05 trillion
  5. Querious – 753 billion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 705 billion
  7. Metropolis – 543 billion
  8. Omist – 526 billion
  9. Fountain – 515 billion
  10. Malpais – 514 billion

Overall NPC bounties remain well down from their peak at the start of the year, even if they are moving back up again.  The monthly NPC bounty totals for 2019 so far:

  • January – 83.8 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • August – 21.1 trillion
  • September – 20.6 trillion
  • October – 41.5 trillion

For those interested in what happened during the blackout period, CCP Larrikin did a lessons learned segment of his Data & Botting presentation at EVE Vegas.  CCP has posted that presentation as a stand alone video, so you can watch the relevant section which starts at about the eight minute mark:

 

Then there is mining.  I heard on The Meta Show a statement that mining was lagging behind, but I am not sure the numbers support that.

October 2019 – Mining value by region

The top ten regions by value mine for October were:

  1. Delve – 3.7 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 2.2 trillion
  3. Querious – 1.19 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.19 trillion
  5. Fountain – 1.16
  6. The Forge – 1.1 trillion
  7. Malpais – 900 billion
  8. Lonetrek – 805 billion
  9. Cobalt Edge – 801 billion
  10. Metropolis – 795 billion

Compare that to the top ten for September:

  1. Delve – 3 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.3 trillion
  3. The Forge – 1.2 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.1 trillion
  5. Querious – 879 billion
  6. Lonetrek – 876 billion
  7. Sinq Laison – 848 billion
  8. Metropolis – 847 billion
  9. Fountain – 768 billion
  10. Genesis – 705 billion

The numbers are not up dramatically, but what did change is where the mining was being done.  During the blackout high sec regions around the major trade hubs climbed up the rankings as null sec mining was suppressed.  With October null sec regions began appearing higher on the list.

But what also happened was that mineral prices were down again in October, putting them near the recent all time low.

October 2019 – Economic Indices

Mining is measures in the ISK value of the ore mined, not by the physical volume, so if the amount of ore mined stayed the same but prices when down, the amount listed in the MER would be down as well.  If prices are down but the MER shows amounts up for regions like Delve and Esoteria, it seems likely that mining has already seen a resurgence and we are now seeing too many minerals chasing too few buy orders.

And so it goes.  It looks like people are back to the ISK generation routines in null sec.  But the things that go along with that to drive the economy like production (108 trillion to 119 trillion ISK value from September to October) and destruction (31 trillion to 32 trillion ISK value from September to October) are not up sufficiently to absorb the influx of minerals.  We shall see if that improves in November.

The Strange September MER

CCP was quick to get the Monthly Economic Report for September into our hands this month.  Due to a number of factors, I have been slower actually getting to it.

Still, there is something to gawk at this month and I am going to go straight to my favorite chart this time around, which is the sinks and faucets over time.

September 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

And the key item on this chart is the gold line that represents NPC bounty payouts.  As I have noted, and as the chart shows, bounty payouts had been tapering off since their peak at the start of the year as CCP nerfed various aspects of null sec anomalies.  Then came the blackout in null sec and they fell off a cliff.  However, the player count also took a hit, so in mid September the blackout ended.

However, just a week before that we got the September update which introduced the cyno changes.

So if you look at that chart closely, examining its behavior between September and October, you can see that NPC bounties fell off even further.  They pretty much dropped off another, smaller cliff as capital ship ratting was pulled up short and the various null sec coalitions developed strategies with which to cope with the change.

In the Imperium people were told not to rat in capitals or supers until the was figured out, and I have heard that other groups did the same.

Eventually though new fits were worked out and strategies setup to counter the problem of not being able to light a cyno on your capital or super (or Rorqual) to get rescued if trouble showed up. (Hint: having an alt in a force recon with a cyno cloaked up on grid and ready to go is a big part of the answer.)  After that was settled the crabs once again undocked and commenced their harvesting yet again and we can see the line going right back up at the end of the month.

So the question probably is whether or not that line has momentum, whether or not it will keep on climbing back into the untenable zone where CCP will feel it has to step in again in order to reign in what was once the biggest ISK faucet in the New Eden economy.

We’ll be back to this chart when the October numbers come out for sure.

As for who grabbed the most of those NPC bounties, the chart shows that the usual regions were at the top of the list.

September 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region

The top ten regions for September were:

  1. Delve – 2.2 trillion
  2. Deklein – 1.5 trillion
  3. Cobalt Edge – 1 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 975 billion
  5. Fountain – 957 billion
  6. Branch – 699 billion
  7. Oasa – 686 billion
  8. Detorid – 528 billion
  9. Tenerifis – 496 billion
  10. Insmother – 454 billion

If the Imperium is home then Delve is at the top.

A lot of those numbers are down from the August, full blackout but pre-cyno change top ten:

  1. Delve – 4.39 trillion
  2. Insmother – 1.30 trillion
  3. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.05 trillion
  5. Querious – 753 billion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 705 billion
  7. Metropolis – 543 billion
  8. Omist – 526 billion
  9. Fountain – 515 billion
  10. Malpais – 514 billion

Delve was down by half in September, and other regions fell off as well, but not all of them.  Cobalt Edge, was up in the northeast of New Eden was up by 250 billion.  So location, reaction time, and the proximity of a war no doubt played into it.

The big sinks and faucets chart shows NPC bounties were down overall compared to August.

September 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

The August chart had NPC bounties at just over 21 trillion ISK, while for September that number fell by nearly a trillion ISK, with NPC bounties pegged at just over 20 trillion ISK.

That kept commodities out in front as the largest faucet in New Eden, though those fell a bit as well, dropping from nearly 24 trillion in August to 21.6 trillion in September.  While that is down some, the peak back in January was 26 trillion, so there hasn’t been any huge shift there.  It is the top faucet because NPC bounties (which were over 83 trillion back in January) have been brought low.

You can also see from that chart that more ISK came out of the New Eden economy this month than went in.

Since the blackout and cyno changes also impact mining operations, at least in null sec, I should probably spend a moment looking at those numbers as well.

September 2019 – Mining value by region

Pulling numbers from the spreadsheet, the top ten regions for mining were:

  1. Delve – 3 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.3 trillion
  3. The Forge – 1.2 trillion
  4. Esoteria – 1.1 trillion
  5. Querious – 879 billion
  6. Lonetrek – 876 billion
  7. Sinq Laison – 848 billion
  8. Metropolis – 847 billion
  9. Fountain – 768 billion
  10. Genesis – 705 billion

Delve being on top should probably surprise nobody.  The Imperium is the top crabbing organization in the game, which also figured into Querious and Fountain being on the list.  And Esoteria should be renamed TESToteria.

But the rest of the list is high sec.

The numbers overall seem to be down from the August top ten:

  1. Delve – 3.62 trillion
  2. Domain – 1.59 trillion
  3. Esoteria – 1.46 trillion
  4. The Forge – 1.40 trillion
  5. Querious – 1.10 trillion
  6. Sinq Laison – 1.02 trillion
  7. Lonetrek – 972 billion
  8. Metropolis – 895 billion
  9. Everyshore – 777 billion
  10. Tash-Murkon – 773 billion

However, mineral prices, on which these numbers rest, were also down in September.

September 2019 – Economic Indices

With the prices down, the value is down.

Finally I want to grab the destruction numbers for New Eden.  The blackout, the cyno changes, and the Chaos Era in general were suppose to be at least in part in furtherance of destruction.  Hilmar wanted to see more things blow up.

September 2019 – Destruction value by region

For September the top regions for destruction were:

  1. The Forge – 2.4 trillion
  2. The Citadel – 1.7 trillion
  3. Delve – 1.7 trillion
  4. Detorid – 1.6 trillion
  5. Sinq Laison – 1.2 trillion
  6. Domain – 1.2 trillion
  7. Lonetrek – 1.1 trillion
  8. Esoteria – 906 billion
  9. Metropolis – 882 billion
  10. Deklein – 865 billion

We have high sec trade hubs, Delve, the war zone of Detorid, TESToteria, and Deklein, the last no doubt in relation to the increase in ratting that put Deklein in second place for NPC bounties.

Those numbers are a bit down from August, especially around Jita it seems.  The August top ten:

  1. The Forge 3.2 trillion
  2. The Citadel – 1.9 trillion
  3. Lonetrek – 1.8 trillion
  4. Detorid – 1.6 trillion
  5. Delve – 1.5 trillion
  6. Sinq Laison – 1.5 trillion
  7. Domain – 1.5 trillion
  8. Fade – 1.4 trillion
  9. Metropolis – 1.1 trillion
  10. Black Rise – 1.0 trillion

Overall the total destruction numbers according to the August and September regional stats spreadsheets were 39.7 trillion and 31.2 trillion respectively.  So destruction seems down, and not just in null sec where the crabs were docked up for a couple weeks out of the month.  The Forge being down by a quarter seems significant.

Did the 3 minute cap on being bumped before warping cut down ganks?

Anyway, that is the meat of things for me, and it gives me something to look at next month when perhaps things will have settled down enough to see a pattern.  Or maybe there will be chaos! Chaos!  CHAOS!

If you are interested in the data and charts, CCP provides them all here in a nice zip archive so you can dig into them and make your own lists and graphs.

More New Eden Numbers for 2019

There have been a lot of numbers thrown about with regards to EVE Online of late in attempts to prove all sorts of things like whether the Chaos Era or the blackout or tax rates or PLEX prices are helping the game, hurting the game, or whatever.  So I thought I would join in on the fun.

Being who I am, I don’t have a point I am trying to prove, and if you skip down to the end you won’t find any grand conclusions either condemning or congratulating CCP.  I just want to see what the data says… or, more likely, what it doesn’t say.

For my numbers I thought I ought to compare the extremes of 2019, so I figured I would put January of the year up against August.  When those two months?  August simply because it is the latest set of MER data we have, while January… well, January was the peak of what one might call “fat times in null sec,” when NPC bounties were paying out greater than ever before.  Look at this chart from the August MER.

August 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

You can see that NPC bounties reached their peak.  This was also a period of not much in the way of wars.  It also pre-dates not only the Chaos Era but also the series of nerfs to bounties and mining in null sec.  January might very well be the height of everything that people outside of null sec hate about it.  It was the peak of the Delve Time Unit.

As for the data I want to toss around, there are three things I want to look at, all of which I am taking directly from the MER data in the January and August reports.

The first is NPC bounties, because of course it is.  As I noted above, January was the absolute peak of NPC bounty largess and CCP has been trying to combat that for much of the year, with nerfs to anomaly spawns and fighter damage application and VNI changes and the blackout and the recent cyno changes to complicate defense group responses.  As I mentioned in my August MER post, those numbers have been declining over the course of the year.

  • January – 83.8 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • August – 21.1 trillion

August was basically 25% of the January total from the sinks and faucets table.

Unfortunately, I am working from the RegionalStats.csv file that is included with each MER, and the numbers there do not align with some of the other charts.  I get it.  You write your SQL query and you take your chances, and different queries can yield different results if you’re not careful.

Also, the region of Cache was missing from the January MER file, so I removed it from the August data so as to compare apples with apples to the extent I could.

With that data in play, the numbers are:

  • January – 84.8 trillion
  • August – 19 trillion

That puts August at about 22.39% of the January total.  However, looking at it in drops sorted out by region, the average/mean drop was 50.49% and the median drop was 49.38%.  That those two differ so much from the combined total drop seems to indicate that drops varied greatly by region.

Since I have that data broken out by regions, I thought I would look at the biggest and smallest losers.

For losers, here are the regions that took the biggest hits:

  1. Period Basis – 3.4 trillion to 20 billion ISK – 0.58% of January
  2. Outer Passage – 2.4 trillion to 80 billion ISK – 3.31% of January
  3. Branch – 6.9 trillion to 259 billion ISK – 3.75% of January
  4. Catch – 1.2 trillion to 52 billion ISK – 4.47% of January
  5. Wicked Creek – 2.1 trillion to 96 billion ISK – 4.54% of January

Period Basis, that was Red Alliance space back in January, though they fell apart and GSF took over, turning it into Imperium rental space and an alleged haven for bots, protected behind the bulk of Delve.  The blackout and bot banning took its toll there.

Outer Passage was another deep null sec spot reputed to be a haven for bots.

Branch was Dead Coalition’s ratting paradise back in January, where they were recovering their fortunes after the Keepstar War of last year.  Not quite as well protected as some regions, but well back from NPC space aside from a station in Venal.

Catch is home to Legacy Coalition alliances including Brave Newbies.

Wicked Creek has been held by Fraternity for ages, but they have apparently pulled back from it for ratting, at least relative to their core in Detorid, which we’ll get to.

The big winners were:

  1. The Kalevala Expanse – 190 billion to 400 billion ISK – 210.29% of January
  2. Genesis – 199 billion to 218 billion ISK – 109.81% of January
  3. Placid – 76 billion to 83 billion ISK – 108.79% of January
  4. The Bleak Lands – 14 billion to 15 billion ISK – 105.83% of January
  5. Tash-Murkon – 98 billion to 103 billion ISK – 104.76% of January

Basically, that is four non-null regions that stayed about the same and The Kalevala Expanse, which is the real outlier in the mix.  It has been held by Pandemic Horde since May of 2018, but was not well utilized for a long stretch.  It was going to be, and may still be, their rental empire.

Then there are what I have decided to call the benchmark sov null regions, which were held by the same groups throughout 2019 and how they fared:

  1. Cobalt Edge (Hard Knocks) – 2.0 trillion to 706 billion – 34.72% of January
  2. Delve (Imperium) – 12.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion – 33.92% of January
  3. Detorid (Fraternity) 5.5 trillion to 1.2 trillion – 22.19% of January
  4. Esoteria (TEST) 5.1 trillion to 1.0 trillion – 20.44% of January
  5. Providence (Provi) 860 billion to 71 billion – 8.26% of January

The wretched excess of Delve was curbed, but it did not fall as far as many, while Provi appears to have suffered quite a bit over the course of the year. Detorid looks to be right at the mean drop.

And then, finally, I also broke the regions of New Eden out into three different areas, Empire (both high and low sec, since Empire regions often include both), Sov Null, and NPC Null.  Broken out, here is how they compared:

  1. NPC Null – 749 billion to 620 billion – 82.77% of January
  2. Empire – 4.3 trillion to 3.5 trillion – 81.70% of January
  3. Sov Null – 79.7 trillion to 14.8 trillion – 18.62% of January

So the weight of the changes over the course of the year fell on null sec.  Of course, that is where the most of the bounties were.  Empire and NPC Null lack upgraded anomalies and don’t see capital or super capital ratting, so the NPC bounties are likely from missions and belt rats.

Looking at NPC bounty changes overall and broken out by the different areas:

  • All Regions Overall: 22.39% Mean: 50.49% Median: 49.38%
  • NPC Null Overall: 82.77% Mean: 76.59% Median: 76.93%
  • Empire – Overall: 81.70% Mean: 84.96% Median: 84.78%
  • Sov Null – Overall: 18.62% Mean: 22.57% Median: 9.24%

When the overall, mean, and median are close, that means that the change was spread pretty evenly.  When they vary, as they do with All Regions and Sov Null, that indicates that changes were uneven.

Basic conclusion is that NPC bounty changes affected Sov Null more than other areas.  I do not think that is a particularly controversial statement.  It is what we would expect having paid attention to the MERs during 2019.

Next up is mining, the other thing CCP sought to nerf in 2019.  Again, it is something that happens heavily in Sov Null, but it is also pretty big in Empire space as well.  The only problem is that the ISK numbers are based on mineral prices during the given time period, so January to August comparisons will be less indicative than NPC bounties, which are always in direct ISK value.  But let’s look anyway.

Overall mining in January brought in 58 trillion ISK in mineral value, an amount that fell to 28 trillion in August, just 48.47% of January.  But the average percentage, when look at per region change, was 76.19%, which means there were some big losers out there.  They were:

  1. Period Basis – 155 trillion to 91 million – 0.06% of January
  2. Outer Passage – 809 billion to 35.4 billion – 4.37% of January
  3. Branch 2.2 trillion to 106 billion – 4.81% of January
  4. Deklein – 1.3 trillion to 83 billion – 6.38% of January
  5. Perrigen Falls – 327 billion to 35 billion – 10.54% of January

There is at least some overlap between the NPC bounty and mining regions here, with Period Basis on top and Branch in the middle for both.

Likewise, the regions with the biggest gains have a pair of repeats:

  1. The Kalevala Expanse – 150 billion to 520 billion – 345.47% of January
  2. Omist – 126 billion to 378 billion – 300.29% of January
  3. The Bleak Lands – 133 billion to 202 billion – 151.82% of January
  4. Pure Blind – 149 billion to 220 billion – 147.19% of January
  5. Aridia – 166 billion to 240 billion – 144.44% of January

As noted before, TKE was underutilized back in January, while TBL, high sec space, saw something of a boost for both bounties and mining.  The surprise for me is probably Pure Blind… who even lives there to mine… and Aridia, as low sec doesn’t have a reputation for being a miner’s paradise.  But, then, none of those regions had big numbers to start with, no trillion ISK regions on that list, so the amount required to move the needle is significantly less.

[Addendum: During the Sep. 20 Open Comms Show Brisc Rubal said that The Initiative moved their mining ops to Aridia during the blackout, which explains that jump.]

And then there are my benchmark Sov Null regions:

  • Cobalt Edge (Hard Knocks) – 745 billion to 217 billion – 29.06% of January
  • Delve (Imperium) – 14 trillion to 3.6 trillion – 25.81% of January
  • Detorid (Fraternity) – 3 trillion to 415 billion – 13.48% of January
  • Esoteria (TEST) – 3.9 trillion to 1.5 trillion – 36.97% of January
  • Providence (Provi) – 405 billion to 122 trillion – 30.16% of January

All were down, with Detorid down the most, while Esoteria seemed to hang on better than the others.

Broken out by different areas of space, overall is all regions as a whole, mean and median are per region changes:

  • All Regions Overall: 48.47% Mean: 76.19% Median: 75.61%
  • NPC Null Overall: 70.94% Mean: 63.77% Median: 65.66%
  • Empire – Overall: 99.99% Mean: 103.34% Median: 104.91%
  • Sov Null – Overall: 31.37% Mean: 60.01% Median: 36.27%

Mining isn’t down as much as bounties, but it is still down.  Empire space was the least affected over the course of the year, with January and August numbers looking very similar.  That at least seems to cast some doubt on the “all the mining bots moved to high sec” theory I have seen.  But the picture is incomplete.  The change in mineral prices, which went up over the course of the year, means that it the totals are close then less ore overall was mined.

Finally, the third thing people have brought up quite a bit is destruction.  The purpose of the blackout was, among other things, supposed to bring more destruction to New Eden.  Or so some people were loudly declaring.  Maybe it was just to frighten botters.  Anyway, we’ll look at those numbers.

Overall destruction in New Eden, according to the data I am using (and we know the data isn’t always complete as noted here) has January pegged at 40 trillion ISK and August at 39 trillion ISK, which is probably withing the margin of error for CCP data.  That would be an almost Ivory Soap-like 99.41% change.  That the by region mean change was 129.22% indicates that different areas saw different results over time, but the median was still a nice solid 96.21%, which is pretty close to the overall change.

So where were the big increases?

  1. Fade – 113 billion to 1.4 trillion – 1265.61% of January
  2. Omist – 76 billion to 414 billion – 544.21% of January
  3. The Kalevala Expanse – 278 billion to 777 billion – 279.66% of January
  4. Genesis – 402 billion to 910 billion – 226.64% of January
  5. Verge Vendor – 168 billion to 363 billion – 216.71% of January

I have no idea what was going on in Fade, which is a problem with a lot of these numbers.  And a big increase like that will skew your data when you look at it in region sized chunks.  Still, something was going on.  It was also interesting to see that destruction followed utilization in TKE, it having made the top increase in all three areas.

The last two regions are in high sec.  More ganking maybe?

At the other end, where did destruction drop off?

  1. Period Basis – 491 billion to 26 billion – 5.30% of January
  2. Geminate – 2.4 trillion to 380 billion – 15.68% of January
  3. Perrigen Falls – 372 billion to 81 billion – 21.78% of January
  4. Outer Passage – 387 billion to 93 billion – 23.95% of January
  5. Cloud Ring – 383 billion to 151 billion – 39.57% of January

Again, it is nice to see some consistency, with the drop off in ratting and mining on Period Basis there was a corresponding drop in destruction.

Geminate was where Pandemic Horde used to live.  Perrigen Falls and Outer Passage are both in the upper drone region, a place reputed to be a botting home.  And then there is Cloud Ring.  I blame The Initiative and Snuffed Out for whatever happens up there.

And how about the benchmark Sov Null regions?  Any changes there that correspond to anything we have seen so far?

  • Cobalt Edge (Hard Knocks) – 395 billion to 699 billion – 177.02% of January
  • Delve (Imperium) – 1.8 trillion to 1.5 trillion – 85.86% of January
  • Detorid (Fraternity) – 1.2 trillion to 1.6 trillion – 137.20% of January
  • Esoteria (TEST) – 613 billion – 860 billion – 140.39% of January
  • Providence (Provi) – 765 billion – 843 billion – 110.24% of January

Unlike Period Basis, there is no corresponding drop in destruction relative to the decrease in ratting or mining.  Somebody took it upon themselves to get out to Cobalt Edge and blow things up. Detorid and Esoteria are also part of an ongoing war in the east, which muddies the water a bit.  Providence saw a bit of a bump.  And then there is Delve, the only one of the bunch that saw a decrease, though at both ends of the measure it saw the most absolute destruction.

Destruction broken out by different areas of space, where overall is all regions as a whole, mean and median are per region changes:

  • All Regions Overall: 99.41% Mean: 129.22% Median: 96.21%
  • NPC Null Overall: 79.61% Mean: 74.70% Median: 76.72%
  • Empire – Overall: 110% Mean: 118.98% Median: 103.41%
  • Sov Null – Overall: 92.29% Mean: 145.77% Median: 88.00%

NPC Null saw a drop, the data shows that it fell in every region, Empire stayed about the same, with some outliers, and Sov Null saw the widest variety of change.  But there are more Sov Null regions than the other two areas combined, so that seems likely.  But the overall numbers didn’t show much change.

So what do all of these numbers mean?  I don’t know.

My daughter is currently taking AP Statistics, so I am trying to show the same restraint I have tried to instill in her when it comes to jumping to conclusions based on data that may not tell a complete story.  It is easy to infer meaning at a glance that is not really there.

There are certainly some consistent stories in the mix, like those of Period Basis or TKE, where a changes followed a nice pattern.  The stories of those regions seem clear.  But others are less so, which points to the need to know what was actually going on in any given area before drawing any conclusions about it based on the data here.  And everything should probably be overlaid on some sort of user online report to give some hint if more people online end up with more ratting and mining and destruction as part of things.

Still, I think there is some value in looking at the data, if only just to get a sense of what is changing where.

For this post I put the data from the August and January MERs into their own Excel spreadsheet, which you can download if you like.

Of course, I started doing this last weekend just because, then got it queued up to post this week after the Ragefire Chasm three-parter, only to find Rhivre at INN also wanted to throw lots of data around this week as well.  She goes into more depth, talks about more things, and generally does a much better job than I bothered to do, so if you want to wallow in numbers you should probably go check that out.