Tag Archives: EVE Monthly Economic Report

MER and the Blackout

Somebody finally got back from vacation and pushed the button to generate the EVE Online Monthly Economic Report for July.

This is the first report that reflects the Blackout and the VNI nerfThe tax increase didn’t go in until August 1st, so that will be for the next report.

Anyway, there is an obvious graph to jump into first, so here we go.

July 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

It is easy to see what day the Blackout began on that chart as the yellow NPC bounty payout line, already down considerably from previous changes this year, fell off a cliff, no doubt contributing to an actual reduction in overall ISK in the New Eden economy.

July 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

The total bounties for the last few months:

  • July – 29.1 trillion
  • June – 48.2 trillion
  • May – 55.5 trillion
  • April – 57.2 trillion
  • March – 71.4 trillion
  • February – 69.8 trillion

But where did it hit hardest?  Last month the top 11 regions, since I wanted to include Delve, sorted out as follows.

  1. Branch – 4.90 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 3.56 trillion
  3. Detorid – 2.88 trillion
  4. Insmother – 2.71 trillion
  5. Deklein – 2.70 trillion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 2.15 trillion
  7. Fountain – 1.96 trillion
  8. Tenal – 1.80 trillion
  9. Perrigen Falls – 1.70 trillion
  10. Period Basis – 1.67 trillion
  11. Delve – 1.57 trillion

Delve was way down because the Imperium was deployed to the north and attacking structures in Tribute and Vale of the Silent.  And then came the Drifters and the start of the Chaos Era and we pulled back home.  Being at home put the Imperium back on top of the NPC bounties rankings.

July 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions for July were:

  1. Delve – 4.71 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 1.77 trillion
  3. Branch – 1.61 trillion
  4. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
  5. Deklein – 1.22 trillion
  6. Insmother – 1.10 trillion
  7. Tenal – 1.1 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.06 trillion
  9. Omist – 0.85 trillion
  10. Feythabolis – 0.81 trillion

Delve is at the top again, but that number is still below even the April number, which included a the start of the deployment north to Tribute.

So the Chaos Era has hit NPC bounties, though there was a bit of a bounce back up at the end of the month.  August will show if things continue down that path or if null sec adapts.

Then there is the mining front.  Last month the top producing regions in ISK value mined were:

  1. Esoteria – 3.31 trillion
  2. Detorid – 1.84 trillion
  3. Insmother – 1.78 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.31 trillion
  5. Branch – 1.25 trillion
  6. Querious – 1,19 trillion
  7. The Forge – 1.16 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.12 trillion
  9. Sinq Laison – 843 billion
  10. Metropolis – 829 billion

Delve was down in 22nd place with a mere 276 billion ISK.  Again, June had the Imperium deployed to the north, so economic activity was down.  But in July everybody was back home to face the Blackout.

July 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Delve was resurgent, with Rorquals out using tech II mining drones to combat attacks on excavator drones.  The top ten regions for July were:

Delve – 5.77 trillion
Querious – 3.18 trillion
Esoteria – 2.61 trillion
Syndicate – 1.99 trillion
Fountain – 1.92 trillion
Etherium Reach – 1.77 trillion
Domain – 1.69 trillion
Malpais – 1.64 trillion
The Kalevala Expanse – 1.61 trillion
The Forge – 1.47 trillion

Numbers were up in some places, including high sec, which remains a safe mining haven, and down in others.  But was there more necessarily more mining in places like Domain or The Forge?  Maybe not.  Since mining isn’t an ISK faucet, it is valued via the market prices, which change over time.  And July saw mineral prices going up some more.

July 2019 – Economic Indices

While not up as sharply as in June, mineral prices continued to rise.  That raises the value of ore mined for the purposes of the MER and encourages more people to mine.

And then there is destruction.  The Blackout was premised on greater destruction happening.  And, overall, there was more destruction in New Eden.  The summary of all regions in June showed 38.28 trillion ISK in destruction, while July saw that rise to 40.73 trillion ISK, and increase of 2.45 trillion ISK.  But where did that destruction occur?

Last month the top regions were:

  1. The Forge – 3.46 trillion
  2. Detorid – 2.31 trillion
  3. Sinq Laison – 1.69 trillion
  4. Tribute – 1.58 trillion
  5. The Citadel – 1.54 trillion
  6. Black Rise – 1.37 trillion
  7. Delve – 1.28 trillion
  8. Placid – 1.11 trillion
  9. Lonetrek – 1.10 trillion
  10. Vale of the Silent – 1.10 trillion

The chart for July shows the new ranking.

July 2019 – Destruction Value by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions were:

  1. The Forge – 2.81 trillion
  2. The Citadel – 2.33 trillion
  3. Detorid – 1.86 trillion
  4. Delve – 1.78 trillion
  5. Sinq Laison – 1.47 trillion
  6. Domain – 1.31 trillion
  7. Lonetrek – 1.29 trillion
  8. Metropolis – 1.17 trillion
  9. Providence – 1.03 trillion
  10. Cache – 1.00 trillion

Delve is up, but that was expected with everybody home again.  What is interesting is that there are now more high sec regions on the list.  There were four last month, but six on the list in July.  You might credit this to the alleged war on high sec, or maybe the less well known structure war in high sec, which is a topic for another post, except that not all the high sec regions saw more destruction.  The Forge, home of Jita, was more than half a trillion in destruction.

It feels rather that destruction was more spread out in July, that the increase was the result of a wider spread skirmishes rather than the destruction of ratters and miners due to the Blackout.  And, of course, the reduction in mining and ratting seems to indicate that many players simply declined to undock due to the Blackout.

All of which leaves me bereft of big conclusions.  But that is to be expected I guess.  The Chaos Era changes modified player behavior, but will it stick or are we just in a transitional period while people adapt?  And while NPC bounties were down a lot, they remained mostly a null sec thing. Null sect saw 88.7% of the bounties in July, compared to 93.6% in June.

June vs. July bounty payout ratio by space type

For August we will have to see how the trend continues, along with what the change in tax rate does.  Plus we still have the coming cyno changes and something about wormholes that has some people freaking out, plus other things mentioned during the Fanfest Home keynote, which may impact the September MER.  We shall see.

Anyway, all the data and charts are available to download from the MER Dev Blog.  In addition, CCP has also introduced a Monthly Security Report about how many people they have banned and what they were banned for.

Also looking at the July MER:

 

The June MER and the Effect of War on Delve

CCP got out the Monthly Economic Report for June 2019 last week, apologizing for its lateness, though it has come out later in some recent months.  But as long as we get it I’m happy enough.

Every month I try to have a theme when I look at the MER, this month the theme is “What happens when the Imperium schleps up north for a war?”  With that we can look at what happens in Delve while they are gone and what happens in the regions where they show up.

We will start with mining, one area that Delve has consistently dominated since Goons tamed the region in the back half of 2016.  But last month?  Not so much.

June 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

The stack rank takes Delve out of the top… I was going to guess top five, but it almost fell out of the top FORTY regions when it came to mining.

The top ten regions for mining value in ISK were:

  1. Esoteria – 3.31 trillion
  2. Detorid – 1.84 trillion
  3. Insmother – 1.78 trillion
  4. Domain – 1.31 trillion
  5. Branch – 1.25 trillion
  6. Querious – 1,19 trillion
  7. The Forge – 1.16 trillion
  8. Fountain – 1.12 trillion
  9. Sinq Laison – 843 billion
  10. Metropolis – 829 billion

And, way down the list, in 40th place, between Oasa and TKE is Delve.

  • Delve – 276 billion

That is down, way down, from the 4.9 trillion mined in the region during May, which itself was way down from the 9.8 trillion mined in the region during April, which in turn was down from the more than 13 trillion ISK in minerals mined in the region in the month of March.

So, without a doubt, the Imperium deployment put the reigns on mining in the region as those who ignored the fact that the supercap umbrella was gone paid the price in Rorqual losses.

Overall mining numbers looked like this per region.

June 2019 – Mining Value by Region

Mining was down in other places, so we should probably look at the mineral price index to see if some of the decrease in value was related to a drop in market prices.

June 2019 – Economic Indices

As it turns out, the mineral price index was up so, if anything, the ore mined was worth more, so less was needed relative to May.  Mineral prices still remain well below previous highs, but appear to be climbing slowly.

June 2019 – Economic Indices Long Term

Turning to NPC bounties, Delve fell out of first place last month, with Branch grabbing 5.6 trillion ISK in bounties to Delve’s 5.1 trillion ISK.  That changed further with June’s totals.

June 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

Delve did not fall as hard as it did on the mining front, but it still fell out of the top ten, landing in the eleventh position overall for NPC bounties, behind even the Imperium rental region of Period Basis.

  1. Branch – 4.90 trillion
  2. Esoteria – 3.56 trillion
  3. Detorid – 2.88 trillion
  4. Insmother – 2.71 trillion
  5. Deklein – 2.70 trillion
  6. Cobalt Edge – 2.15 trillion
  7. Fountain – 1.96 trillion
  8. Tenal – 1.80 trillion
  9. Perrigen Falls – 1.70 trillion
  10. Period Basis – 1.67 trillion
  11. Delve – 1.57 trillion

Overall NPC bounties actually picked up as the month headed towards a close, though overall NPC bounties remain down from recent peaks.

June 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

The bump at the end corresponds somewhat with the commencement of the Drifter attacks on null sec, when everybody pulled back home. During that first week of attacks the Drifters ignored those ratting and mining in anomalies, concentrating Upwell Structures and those who came within range.

Overall NPC bounties totaled up approximately 48.2 trillion ISK in payouts, down from the 55.5 trillion ISK in payouts delivered in May, and well down from the pre-nerf total for March, where 71.4 trillion ISK was paid out for NPC kills.

That led to an actual reduction in the money supply in game over the course of the month.

June 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

Faucets were down by almost 15 trillion ISK, though sinks were also down, coming in 8 trillion ISK less than in May.  However, the active ISK delta, which includes ISK seized by GMs for botting and RMT, was up 14 trillion ISK, leading in an overall reduction.

And, finally, since there was a war or two going on in null sec, we might as well look at the destruction numbers.

June 2019 – Destruction Value by Region

Stack ranking that by region ends up looking like this:

June 2019 – Destruction Value by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions saw the following destruction:

  1. The Forge – 3.46 trillion
  2. Detorid – 2.3 trillion
  3. Sinq Laison – 1.69 trillion
  4. Tribute – 1.58 trillion
  5. The Citadel – 1.53 trillion
  6. Black Rise – 1.37 trillion
  7. Delve – 1.28 trillion
  8. Placid – 1.11 trillion
  9. Lonetrek – 1.10 trillion
  10. Vale of the Silent – 1.10 trillion

The Forge, home of Jita, is also a nexus of high sec suicide ganking, and is always at or near the top of the list, was up from 3 trillion last month.  Detroid, where TEST and Fraternity were clashing, made it into second place, up half a trillion from May.

The war zone for the Imperium, Tribute, only managed to make it into fourth, even with some Keepstar kills.  There were no great battles of titans.  Likewise, Vale of the Silent, which also saw structures and ihubs attack, only made it into tenth spot.

Delve, with no supercap umbrella, was in seventh, down from second in May, with a decrease of 700 billion in destruction.

Other regions, The Citadel, Lonetrek, Black Rise, Sinq Laison, and Placid, see action from their proximity to trade hubs. (Domain, which covers the remaining trade hub, was in 11th place.)

And so it goes.  The war pulling so many people out of Delve had an impact.  But with the coming of the Drifters we all came back home.

The theme for the July MER, when it comes out, will be what the Drifters, who did end up hitting ratters and miners this month, and the blackout, did to the numbers.  I suspect that the day the blackout shows up and forward will be dramatic on that sinks and faucets chart.  We shall see.

As always, all the charts and spreadsheets that make up the MER are available from CCP if you want to wallow in the data.

Wartime MER Finally Sees Delve Eclipsed

It is time for another EVE Online Monthly Economic Report, as CCP released the May edition last week.

Going with my desire to give these posts a theme I am happy enough to have had one served up to me, which is the war in the north.  Back in mid-May the Imperium packed up their supercaps and titans and what not and took it on the road, ending up in a staging system in Pure Blind.

With that the word went out that the protective defense umbrella was gone and that anybody who undocked in Delve to rat or mine was doing so at their own risk.  Of course, despite this having shown up in every coalition channel I frequent, people missed it or ignored it and the slaughter in Delve has reflected that.  Lots of Rorquals down.  So The first chart up will be about destruction.

May 2019 – Destruction Value by Region Bar Graph

The charts either show the values clearly, but not well sorted, or sorted by values, but the values are not always clear.  But in grabbing the values from the raw data, the top five regions for destruction were:

  1. The Forge – 3 Trillion ISK
  2. Delve – 2 Trillion ISK
  3. Detorid – 1.7 Trillion ISK
  4. The Citadel – 1.6 Trillion ISK
  5. Tenerifis – 1.5 Trillion ISK

The Forge is, of course, the home of Jita a suicide ganking.  It is always at the top of the list.  Then there is Delve, where those not paying attention have paid the price.  Detroid and Tenerifis are locations where war has been running in the south, while The Citadel is another prime suicide gank location.

Tribute, where we are bringing war, was down in 20th position with just 718 billion ISK in destruction for May.  Of course, I expect that to be up for the June report, since we didn’t start killing Keepstars until then.

Compare that top five with the April numbers.

  • Detorid – 2.3 Trillion ISK (war)
  • The Forge – 2.2 Trillion ISK (ganks)
  • Delve – 1.5 Trillion ISK (business as usual I guess)
  • The Citadel – 1.3 Trillion ISK (ganks)
  • Black Rise – 1.2 Trillion ISK (no idea, I thought low sec was dead)

Delve was up half a trillion ISK in May, and that was only half a month without the usual defense coverage, so it could be up further in June.  Jita ganking was up quite a bit as well.  I wonder if that has to do with war related shipping.

As for economic activity, Delve remained the top region for mining in May by a long shot.

May 2019 – Mining Value by Region Bar Graph

Again, the Delve defenses were down for less than half of the month, but still Delve pulled in 4.9 trillion ISK in value, while the next most active region, Esoteria, home of TEST, had 2.7 trillion ISK.

But that was a huge drop when compared to April, where Delve mining was valued at 9.8 trillion ISK and Querious, where the Imperium goes moon mining once a month, clocked in at 2.7 trillion ISK.  Esoteria was in third place with 2.4 trillion ISK.

Since mining value is based on the price of minerals, we have to see if that changed, which gives us another chart.

May 2019 – Economic Indices

Mineral values stayed flat, so the changes between April in May appear to be largely due to the volumes mined.  Delve mining was down quite a bit, no doubt to people deploying and those who didn’t getting blown up more often or having their excavator drones stolen, the latter being a tactic I read about recently.

But the real change comes with NPC bounties.

May 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region Bar Graph

For the first time since I started looking at the MER, Delve is not the top region when it comes to bounties.  Branch was in first place for May.

  1. Branch – 5.6 Trillion ISK
  2. Delve – 5.1 Trillion ISK
  3. Detorid – 4.1 Trillion ISK
  4. Insmother – 3.4 Trillion ISK
  5. Esoteria – 3.2 Trillion ISK

Branch is home to a few alliances that are part of Dead Coalition, formerly GotG.

Branch is actually down over a trillion ISK when compared to April, but Delve was down almost 3 trillion ISK in bounties over the previous month.  With that, and war coming to various regions in May, overall bounties were down significantly on the sinks and faucets chart.

May 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

That puts the bounties down to about a war time low in 2017, though not quite down to the Casino War level when the Imperium was homeless and then busy taking over Delve.

Total bounties across all regions were only down 2 trillion when compared to April, but May started with a pre-war peak before the line began trending down.

All of which sets things up for the June report, which will include a full month of war, destruction of ihubs and structures in Tribute, and all that goes with it.  I expect the ratting and mining numbers will be down even more so with that.  But not destruction.  Destruction should go up.

As usual, all of the charts and data are available in the dev blog for the May 2019 MER.

MER – Did Mining and Bounties Go Down?

So the previous two posts I have done about the EVE Online Monthly Economic Report were specifically to call out baseline numbers against which to measure the changes CCP made in March and April updates.

Last week we got the April MER so we can see if anything changed.  I began in February with NPC bounties, the biggest faucet in the game, so I will start there to see what happened.

Actually, even with the March report NPC bounties seemed to be going down, and the Top Sinks and Faucets chart seems to bear that out, that bounties were down.

April 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

The looks… promising.  Numbers were down a lot in March as the update changed anomaly spawn times, continuing in April as that update hit fighter damage application to subcaps and the VNI got reeled back in a bit.

April 2019 – ISK Sinks and Faucets

The Sinks and Faucets chart for April shows NPC bounties ringing in at 57.2 trillion ISK, which is down from the almost 70 trillion ISK in bounties paid out back in February.  The listing of bounties by region also shows some decreases.

April 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region

In Delve, the benchmark region that is always at the top of the list, NPC bounties were down by almost 3 trillion ISK in April when compared to the February numbers.  Branch, however, was up over the same period of time and, at 6.7 trillion ISK in bounties, appears to be racing to catch up to Delve.  So while there were fluctuations in the bounties across regions, it wasn’t universally down even if April rang in at only 82% of the February overall numbers.

That is a lot, but might be accounted for, at least in part, by other factors.  And, of course, the question remains as to whether or not that was enough of a drop?

And then there is mining.  Nerfs for that went in with the April update, specifically the yield of excavator drones, as well as some changes to the dynamics of Rorquals and their drones.  I highlighted the data from the March MER to give a before picture.

The initial chart looks pretty positive that this change had some impact.

April 2019 – Mining Value by Region

Delve, ever my benchmark region for economic excesses, was down considerably.  The March report showed 13.5 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in the region, while in April that number was down to 9.8 trillion ISK.  Going to the raw data to get the totals for all of New Eden showed the following:

  • Feb mining –  56.1 trillion ISK
  • Mar mining – 58.9 trillion ISK
  • Apr mining – 46.3 trillion ISK

With April ringing in at less than 80% of the March totals, it looks like there was some impact.

April 2019 – Economic Indices

Mineral pricing remained fairly flat in April.  That means that the decrease in the value of mined ore wasn’t due to a drop in mineral pricing.  However, it also seems to mean that the flow of ore was not stemmed sufficiently for demand to cause prices to rise.

So, as with the NPC bounties, we are left to wonder if there was enough of a correct to have any substantive impact on the overall economy of New Eden. (I also wonder about a couple of discrepancies in the data. Depending on which spreadsheet I pull data from, bounties may have been a bit higher and mining a bit lower.)

Next month the report for May should show some additional changes in output for both bounties and mining.  As I noted yesterday, the Imperium is deploying for a war and has started moving north en masse.  This means that the defensive umbrella in Delve will be mostly absent, save for a structure killing subcap fleet.  Smart Imperium pilots won’t venture out to rat and mine, while the ignorant or oblivious will be targets for hunters who will no doubt flock to the region in search of easy prey.

When the biggest producing region in New Eden goes on a road trip, the numbers are bound to fall, which will give me something to look at when the May report shows up.

 

MER Checking in on Mining before the Nerf

As I wrote last month, I am going to try to look at more specific aspects of the monthly economic report going forward.  We got the March report last week, just a couple days after the April update introduced a series of nerfs to both ratting and mining.  I took a measure of ratting last month, so this time around I want to get the “before” picture for mining.

March 2019 – Mining Value by Region

There was, as usual, a lot of mining going on in March, a good chunk of it in Delve.

March 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Delve is, of course, where the Imperium lives.  Second place goes to Esoteria.  Both regions were up over February.  Overall, according to the raw data that comes with the report there was about 56 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in February, which went up to just shy of 59 trillion ISK worth of ore mined in March.

The price of ore itself was up just a bit in March.

March 2019 – Economic Indices

I am not sure that is enough to account for the difference between the two months, but overall the count is close enough that the two months are pretty on par.  February being three days shorter than March could make up the difference.  Dividing the total amount by the days shows the per day yield tilted towards February, with 2 trillion ISK per day versus 1.9 trillion ISK per day in March.  Still, pretty close.

Last Tuesday the update hit with nerfs to Rorqual mining, specifically:

  • Reduced the bonus to shield boost amount provided by the Industrial Core to 60% for T1 Industrial Cores and 75% for T2 (was 120% and 140% respectively)
  • Reduced the base duration of the PANIC module to 4 minutes (was 5 minutes)
  • Increased the bonus to mining foreman burst strength provided by the Industrial Core to 30% for T1 Cores and 36% for T2 (was 25% and 30% respectively)
  • ‘Excavator’ Mining Drone base mining yield decreased to 80m3 (was 100m3)
  • ‘Excavator’ Ice Harvesting Drone base cycle time slowed to 310s (was 250s)
  • Excavator drone volume increased to 1100m3 (was 750m3) and Rorqual drone bay volume increased to 8800m3 (was 6000m3)

Reduced yield and slower cycle times for excavator drones are direct swipes at Rorqual mining efficiency.  Reduced PANIC duration makes Rorquals more likely to die while waiting for rescue to arrive and larger excavator drones means that Rorqual pilots won’t be able to stash so many excavators in mobile depots to save them from destruction.

The Rorqual also won’t provide as much protection to mining barges and exhumers in their fleets, though the mining yield for those craft will go up, an incentive to fly the smaller and more vulnerable subcap mining ships.

So the question is whether or not these changes will have any impact.  We will have to wait for the economic report for April to come out next month to see.

Meanwhile, going back to last month’s post, the top sinks and faucets chart shows bounties were down a bit, continuing the trend from February.

March 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

Overall February and March were not that far apart, being about 70 and 71 trillion ISK in bounties respectively, but the chart is trending down and the bounty payouts per day were almost 2.5 trillion ISK per day in February while that sank to 2.3 trillion ISK per day in March.  We will see if the April update changes, which hit fighter damage application against sub caps (which hurts carrier/super carried mining) and nerfs to the Vexor Navy Issue (the favored AFK anomaly sub cap) keeps that trend pointed down.

You can find the full March economic report here, which includes all the usual charts and graphs, plus the data used to generate them.

The MER and Too Much ISK

The EVE Online monthly economic report is out for activity in February and I am not all that excited about it.

It has been two years since I started posting regularly about the EVE Online monthly economic report, this being the 24th such post.  At the start it was about charting the growth of the economy in Delve after we fled there following the Casino War.  Then it became an attempt to watch the economy over time, to chart the course, not anomalies, and to see if changes CCP made would have any impact on things.

Over time the monthly post became formulaic.  You can look at the last few months and see that I have noted a little rise in something here, a little decline in something there, that and event or a war meant people spent less time ratting and mining and more time blowing things up, but otherwise there hasn’t been all that much dramatic.

Basically, the idea has become a bore.  Not very exciting to write and, I suspect, even less so to read.

The New Eden economy is still important and is fairly unique in its pervasiveness in an MMORPG and I still want to write about it.  So, instead of the same dozen charts every month I think I will try to focus on one of two things that are indicative of some problem or change.

This month it will be a problem, and the problem will be that most wicked of problems, money… as in there is too much of it in the New Eden economy and somebody needs to turn down the taps.  The CSM minutes section the economy brings this up, both that it encourages botting and that it is driving up the price of PLEX.

They [CCP] say that the biggest problem is botting which is an ongoing for a long time. In general, CCP wants to tune down the faucets for ISK and minerals which they think are a bit high right now.

Even Hilmar was on about ISK during his AMA on the EVE Forums earlier.

I think the situation with the ISK economy is out of control. There are too many ways to create risk free ISK income streams.

There is a lot of ISK pouring into the game every month.

February 2019 – ISK Sinks and Faucets

Of the 107 trillion ISK that entered the economy via various faucets, 65% of it was from NPC bounties.  And February was a bit of a down month for ratting.

February 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

The month before it was 130 trillion ISK coming into the economy, with NPC bounties holding the same percentage.

CCP has been taking money out of the economy by chasing botters and illicit RMT, as covered over at The Nosy Gamer.  But that is a labor intensive effort that isn’t as easy as you probably imagine it, made even harder by the fact that a false positive… banning the wrong person… is more than a minor faux pas.  Meanwhile clever botters carry on undetected.  So CCP seems to be targeting anomaly ratting again.   I recently demonstrated how that could be a pretty hands off activity, making it a ripe avenue for bots.

While the Spring Balance changes coming in on the 9th of next month are headlined by a rework of remote repairs, there are a couple items in there likely aimed at botting and ISK generation.

The Vexor Navy Issue, the most favored sub-cap hull for null sec anomalies, is having its drone velocity boost removed, so anoms will take a bit longer, and its signature radius increased, so NPCs will be more likely to hit it.  Likewise, the Gila, more of an abyssal space boat, is having its drone hit point bonus reduced from 500% to 250%.

While cast as a PvP change, the planned nerf to fighter damage application versus subcaps will also have an impact on ratting, where the super carrier money machines lurk in relative safety.  This, and the March update to anomaly respawn times could have an impact on ratting income.

Maybe.

We’ll see.  I’d have expected more for such a high priority item.

And we won’t be able to see until May, which is when we’ll get the ratting data from April, so I will have to mark this down as something to come back to.  But I guess that was the idea.

Which leaves what to say about next month’s MER.  I think I will look into mining for that, taking a final measure or the rate of rock crunching in the report on March.

Anyway, all the usual charts and data are still available in the MER dev blog if you want the bigger picture.

MER – New Eden Numbers for a New Year

We’re already into the back half of February and the Monthly Economic Report for January has finally made its appearance.  I suppose CCP had an update to push and event to launch, though the latter was pretty small while the former… well, the less said the better I suppose.

But now we have some charts and numbers to stare at finally.  So I might as well open up with mining, my usual start point.

January 2019 – Mining Value by Region

Mining was up some in our benchmark region of Delve, moving from 12.2 trillion ISK in ore mined to 14 trillion.

January 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

The bar graph shows that the top five regions for mining output remained the same, with Imperium owned Querious passing Detroid where Fraternity lives.  The top three all saw an increase in mining output, while the next two, Detroid and Branch saw a decrease.

Given that the price of ore was up slightly, if all things were otherwise equal, output should have been up.  That the Imperium and TEST (in Esoteria) have deployed some groups to the east of null sec may be suppressing output there.

January 2019 – Economic Indices

While up a bit, mineral prices are still near an all time low for New Eden.  That they bottomed out seems to suggest that we have hit a natural price floor.

On the production front, both Delve and The Forge, the top two regions, say a small decline.

January 2019 – Production Values by Region

Delve remains the top region, though the three regions that directly feed Jita, The Forge, Lonetrek, and The Citadel, still combine to more than Delve, totaling up to over 56 trillion ISK in production.

January 2019 – Production Values by Region – Bar Graph

Looking at the bar graph, you can see Esoteria (TEST) and Detroid (Fraternity) are not far behind, holding fifth and sixth place overall, indicating that they are also building up capital ships and the like.

On the market value front, The Forge, home of Jita, continues to dominate the numbers there.

January 2019 – Trade Value by Region

Trade in The Forge was down a little, but not enough to put any other region in the same ballpark, to the point that you have to exclude The Forge for the bar graph to show anything about the rest of New Eden.

January 2019 – Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph, Forge Excluded

The ranking of the second tier systems remained unchanged, with Domain, home of Amarr, in second followed by Delve.

And then there is the big ISK faucet in New Eden, NPC bounties.

January 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region

Delve, unsurprisingly, remained at the top of the heap, up two trillion ISK over December.  The Imperium has some SIGs and squads deployed, but otherwise continues to farm Delve under the protective supercap umbrella.

January 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

The next four regions remained in the same rank as before, Branch (GotG), Detroid (Fraternity), Esoteria (TEST), and Querious (Imperium), with all of them up for January.  That led to a new all time high.

January 2010 – Top Sinks and Faucets

NPC bounties peaked at that new all time high early in January, but was drawn back down some mid-month.  My guess is that the fighting in the east of null sec and the ongoing showdown over the Perimeter Keepstar trade hub drew some people away from their ISK collecting.  I keep thinking that maybe CCP will make some more tweaks to address this growing ISK glut, but players rolled right over the last change that was supposed to slow down titan and super ratting.  We’re like that.

Of course, maybe CCP has its eyes elsewhere.

January 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

Despite the peak in NPC bounties, overall ISK in the game went down slightly, with the infamous “Active ISK Delta,” which includes GM’s going after botters and RMT sales, pulling 95 trillion ISK out of the economy.  In addition to bans, they are moving level 4 and 5 missions to Omega only status to close the courier mission botting exploit.  Go CCP!

And, finally, the region summary chart with which I like to end, the regional summary.

January 2019 – Regional Stats

That gives you a nice overview of what each region has going on.

The Forge, while down from December, leads in total ship destruction.  That number that will likely go up with Burn Jita 2019 hitting this Friday.  And Geminate, where some SIGs and squads are deployed, saw its destruction number trending up.

And in a few weeks, or maybe less, we’ll see what February did in New Eden.

 

MER – Hard Knocks Distraction and a Slight Mineral Price Rebound

We’re into the new year, but news and data from the old is still being put together.  Information and reports always lag behind.  And so it is here in shiny new 2019 CCP has posted the final Monthly Economic Report for 2018 covering the month of December.

What did we do in New Eden while many of us had some extra time off?

Well, to start off with mining, where I traditionally begin, it looks like we mined less.  At least we mined less in Delve.

December 2018 – Mining Value by Region

Delve still remains way out in front of all other regions, something more easily visualized on the bar graph.

December 2018 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Delve clocked in at 12.2 trillion ISK in value mined, down from the 15.5 trillion ISK mined in November.  And November was down from voracious 19 trillion ISK that was mined in October.

Previously I speculated as to whether the down turn in mining might be related to the dropping price of minerals, mining output being valued by what the market will pay.  And I might have gone to that as a potential explanation again this month, except that the price of minerals rebounded a bit in December.

December 2018 – Economic Indices

The price is still down near the three year low (though still a bit above the all time low), but still up some, enough that the drop in mining measured in Delve cannot be due to price.  Instead, it appears that people just mined a bit less.  This might even be related to the low price.  Ideally Adam Smith’s invisible hand will push supply and demand towards equilibrium.  A low enough price ought to get people to drop mining in favor of other economic endeavors.

But there was a week last month when a lot of us were in wormhole space blowing up that Hard Knocks Keepstar.  That might also explain the dip in Delve and the minor rise in the mineral price.

And all the more so since other places were on the rise.  Second place Esoteria, TEST’s home turf, was up a trillion ISK over November, as was third place Detroid, home of Fraternity.

Querious, another Imperium region, was down half a trillion ISK, leaving it in fourth place.  While still dominant, out mining the next three regions combined, Delve seemed to have been distracted by other events for a bit in December.

On the production front Delve remained steady.

December 2018 – Production Values by Region

Delve production was off by such a small number as to be effectively the same in December.  Likewise The Forge, Lonetrek, and The Citadel regions, the production areas that directly feed the Jita market, saw very little change between November and December.

December 2018 – Production Values by Region – Bar Graph

TEST was busy in Esoteria though, as production there climbed, pushing the region ahead of Lonetrek and The Citadel in the ranking.  It is now in third place, even if it is a distant third.  Other null sec regions also saw bumps in production since last month.

Trade value by region saw very little change in December.  The Forge, home to Jita, still dominates.

December 2018 – Trade Value by Region

Leaving The Forge out of the picture, the rest of New Eden stacks up behind Domain.

December 2018 – Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph, Forge Excluded

Delve held on to third place, not closing in on Domain and the trade hub in Amarr, but still staying comfortably ahead of the other high sec trade hubs as well ahead of any null sec region.  Delve continues to try and have its own economy in a single region.

And then there is the big faucet, NPC bounties.

December 2018 – NPC Bounties by Region

Delve remains at the top of the chart on this front.

December 2018 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

Delve, while still in the lead, was down, as were the other Imperium regions, perhaps reflecting the coalition being distracted by blowing up structures in wormhole space for about a week.  Other regions, however, were up.  Of note were Branch (GotG), Esoteria (TEST), and Detroid (Fraternity), which were undisturbed.

You can even seen the week where the Imperium was in w-space on the sinks and faucets chart. (I was rolling back home around where the line spikes up, with a lot of other people traveling with.)

December 2018 – Top Sinks and Faucets

It is interesting to see what else on that chart dipped (or rose) in conjunction with the dip in bounty payments.  And, of course, once everybody was back from wormhole space bounties jumped to an all time high yet again, something I suspect that CCP will feel the need to address at some point.

Then there is the final chart, which compares some select regions across several parameters.

December 2018 – Regional Stats

And so it goes, the end of another year.  We will see if next month sees a continuation in the rise in NPC bounty payouts.  Or maybe something will happen to distract us again.

As usual, you can find all the charts and the raw data used to create this report over in the dev blog.

MER – Charts for All My Needs

CCP was a bit quicker here in December in getting out the monthly economic report November.  However, in their haste it looked like they had omitted almost all of the charts I usually write about.  Frustrated by that, I decided to just grab the raw data this time around and make my own damn charts, only to find that all the charts I expected were included in that .zip archive.

So I have already learned something new this month.   I’ll check that off my list.

And, unlike last month, the Fade region actually made the cut for inclusions again.  The Cache region however remains unaccounted for.

As usual, I will start off with the mining to see how peace in the south and small scale conflicts in the north are doing.

November 2018 – Mining Value by Region

In a completely expected turn of events, Delve continues to be the region seeing the most mining activity.  The bar chart shows just how far ahead Delve is when compared to other regions.

November 2018 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

By this measure the mining output of Delve is greater than the next seven regions combined.  (The newly returned Fade region is at the bottom of that list as well as others, perhaps confirming the theory that it was missed last month due to not hitting some minimal activity threshold.)

And yet the Delve number is down.  In October the amount mined was measured in excess of 19 trillion ISK, but for November it is down to 15.5 trillion ISK.  Did people get tired of mining in Delve?

Maybe not.  As usual, there is another chart here to figure into things.

November 2018 – Economic Indices

As you can see, the price of minerals has continued its post-war slide, landing at a three year low in November.  Since the mining amount is measured by the value of the ore, falling prices can mean falling numbers even if the total cubic meters of ore mined remains the same.

November 2018 – Economic Indices over All Time

As for the price of minerals, while they are not at an all time low, they are headed there.  I think we are firmly in the zone where, if you have a researched Charon freighter blueprint, you can build the freighter, insure it, have somebody gank it, and still turn a profit.  That was a tale I was told at the bottom of the last mineral price dip and we’re now well below that.

So mineral prices seem like something CCP needs to address.  Maybe.  There is a production aspect to that.

November 2018 – Production Values by Region

In production, while The Forge region was up a bit (as was its feeder region The Citadel, while Lonetrek held steady), Delve continues to be the single region with the greatest production output.

November 2018 – Production Values by Region – Bar Graph

Production, of course, requires inputs, of which mined minerals are a significant portion.  Aryth said on a recent Meta Show that production in Delve enjoyed a certain advantage in that the ore and minerals were available at a discount when compared to the Jita market.

There is a not insignificant cost to ship compressed or and minerals all the way to Jita in order to sell.  That makes what I would call the effective parity price of minerals in Delve lower, and since Delve is producing all that ore for the engines of production to consume, Delve’s economic power might be causing a greater dip in the economic indices for minerals than one might see in Jita.

Anecdotally, tritanium seems to be cheaper in 1DQ1-A than in Jita, but I cannot tell how much weight to give that observation.

And since we’re here, I might as well through the sales charts up on the page.

November 2018 – Trade Value by Region

For all the pride of the Delve region, Jita and The Forge remain the economic center of New Eden.

November 2018 – Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph

That chart is so lopsided that CCP has to exclude The Forge in order to get some insight into other regions.

November 2018 – Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph, Forge Excluded

Domain, home of Amarr, remains in second place with Delve not too far behind.  But you have to get down to seventh spot, which is Esoteria, the home of TEST, before another null sec region shows up.

NPC bounties are more straightforward.

November 2018 – NPC Bounties by Region

No we’re back to things Delve dominates and which do not depend on variations in market prices in order to measure.  NPC bounties are a direct faucet into the economy.  On that Delve was down by half a trillion ISK.

November 2018 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

Following behind Delve are Esoteria (TEST), Detroid (Fraternity & Triumvirate), Querious (Imperium alliance training ground), Fountain (Imperium), and Period Basis (Red Alliance).

In the north of null sec, where infighting around Branch and Venal is keeping everyone busy while the Imperium’s Space Violence squad is active and the NGSA is trying to oppress the numbers in Geminate, Deklein is the highest earner for ratting, bringing in just over 2 trillion ISK in bounties.

Overall bounties continued to peak.

November 2018 – Top Sinks and Faucets

While mineral prices are at a recent low, NPC bounty payouts are now at an all time high.  The question remains as to what CCP will do, if anything, and if there is anything they can do that Malcanis won’t make a mockery of.

Overall, bounties are down slightly as a percentage of the income faucet total, ringing in at 63%.  The number was 65% in October.

November 2018 – Sinks and Faucets and the ISK supply

But that is because other faucets like incursion payouts and agent mission rewards and bonuses were also up for November.  The overall money supply was up another 37 trillion ISK for the month.

So there it is, another month and the economy of New Eden hasn’t fallen over yet.  Aspects of it look bad, but it keeps on chugging along.

Finally, the chart that I choose to end with most months, the overview and comparison of regions.

November 2018 – Regional Stats

And so it goes until next month.  You can find all of the raw data and charts over at the dev blog post for the November report.

MER – The Disappearance of Fade

As I said in last week’s post about the late arriving September Monthly Economic Report, I was uncertain if I ought to bother with the October version.  The October report seemed rushed as it was missing a couple of the regular charts, had some out of date charts (August numbers), and was missing two whole regions, Cache and Fade.

But on the Meta Show this past weekend Aryth suggested that the process that generates the charts monthly might have omitted those two regions because they failed to meet the minimum threshold of activity to be included.  I do not know if that is a fact, but he seemed to understand that was how things worked, and it makes some sense.  CCP wouldn’t want Jove space showing up on the charts.

That persuaded me to carry on with the post as normal.  If the threshold value theory is true, then it is a statement as to what has happened in the wake of the Keepstar War.  And, if it is not, well, it leaves open some room for a couple of conspiracy theories.  Did CCP remove two regions from the game and not tell anybody?  Or did that brief period last month when SpaceMonkeys Alliance suddenly shambled back into life and tried to return to Fade, like a ghost trying to haunt its final location in life, cause some sort of positive feedback loop that became a singularity of suck which devoured both the alliance and the region?  And did that take Cache with it as well?

Anyway, I always feel that the history of New Eden is worth recording, so here we go.

As usual, I will start with the mining chart.

October 2018 – Mining Value by Region

As expected, Delve remains at the top of the list, up about 2.5 trillion ISK over September, proving that people are home from the war.  The bar chart makes clear just how far ahead the region remains.

October 2018 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Not that the second highest region, dwarfed though it might be by Delve, is Querious, which is also mined by the Imperium, which passes through monthly in what is called “locust fleet” to harvest all of the moon mining operations in the region.  That is followed by Esoteria, where TEST mines, Detroid, which is home to Triumvirate and Fraternity, two high sec regions, and the Fountain, the third region mined by the Imperium. It isn’t until after the high sec region of Metropolis that the first region in the north shows up, Deklein.  Deklein ought to have seen a sharp uptick since it is covered by the September peace agreement between GotG and the Imperium.  However Pandemic Horde has been attacking GotG because they paid off the Imperium with faction Fortizars or something.  The north is busy suppressing its own economic output.

This is the point where I would normally try to give some context as to the value of those mining numbers, as they depend on the price of minerals on the market.  However, the chat that would help illustrated this is from August, when minerals prices were at their war time high.  We saw that pricing collapse in the September report and have no reason to believe it rebounded in any way.  If it did drop even further, as one might expect give the influx of minerals on the market, that 19 trillion ISK number for Delve might understate exactly how much mining was going on in the region.

On the NPC bounties front Delve remains well ahead of other regions.

October 2018 – NPC Bounties by Region

Again, the peace dividend is in full force here, with Delve up from 8.4 trillion ISK in September to just over 13.4 trillion ISK in October.  The bar graph shows best how regions stack up.

October 2018 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

After Delve the next five regions are Esoteria, Detroid, Querious, Fountain, and Branch, which owned by TEST, Tri/Fraternity, Imperium, Imperium, and GotG.  So you know who is getting rich.  Unlike mining, which adds no ISK to the game and which depends on the market price for valuation, bounties are a straight injection of ISK in to the game.

October 2018 – NPC Bounties by Sec Status

And the peacetime boom means that null sec is pulling in an even greater share of the bounty pie, grabbing 93.8% of the bounties, up from 93.2% in September.

On both the mining and NPC bounty fronts, the regions of Branch, Vale of the Silent, and The Kalevala Expanse are places to watch for the November report.  Pandemic Horde has been attacking GotG in Branch, while the Imperium’s economic suppression SIG, the NGSC, has been deployed to the other two regions.  This could suppress mining and ratting in these regions.

The faucets chart shows that, while ratting remains near its peak, it was down a bit over the course of the month.

October 2018 – Top Sinks and Faucets

But the fact that it was close to an all time high for the whole month meant a lot more ISK being injected into the economy.

October 2018 – Sinks and Faucets and the ISK supply

I don’t usually include that chart, mostly because I don’t want to pull every single chart from the report into these posts, but this one shows the net input of ISK from NPC bounties.  For October the number was 72.5 trillion ISK, up from 55.6 trillion in September.  Lots of krabbing going on, with bounties making up 65% of the overall faucets category.

On the trade value front, the main chart was one of those that went missing for October, though the bar graphs were still posted.

October 2018 – Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph

The Forge region, home to Jita, continues to be the dominate trade hub of New Eden.

October 2018 – Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph, Forge Excluded

Without The Forge, Domain, home to the Amarr trade hub, and Delve continue to hold significant leads ahead of the rest of space.  The lesser high sec trade hubs follow behind, then there is Esoteria, home of TEST.

October 2018 – Contracts Trade Value by Region – Bar Graph

For contracts, The Forge still holds its top spot, though it isn’t do far ahead of Delve and the Imperium as in overall sales.  The Esoteria, Geminate, and Detroid follow on to round out the top five, homes respectively of TEST, Pandemic Horde, and Tri/Fraternity.

And then there is production, where we see where things are getting built.

October 2018 – Production Values by Region

Delve saw a post-war production boom.  Output stood at 35 trillion ISK last month, but jumped to nearly 46 trillion ISK for October.  The Forge, in second place, saw a slight reduction in production for October.

October 2018 – Production Values by Region – Bar Graph

While Delve dominates as a single region, what I refer to as the “Jita production cluster,” The Forge, Lonetrek, and The Citadel, still tally up to more than Delve.  However, that number is only a little more than 51 trillion ISK, putting Delve close to passing the industries supporting the main trade hub of New Eden.

Following up Delve and the three sisters of Jita are Esoteria, which shows TEST is ramping up production, and Domain, supporting the Amarr trade hub.

Finally, there is the summary char with which I usually end these posts.

October 2018 – Regional Stats

So that was October.  The report was flawed, but still had sufficient data to be of interest.  You can find the whole October Monthly Economic Report here.  It includes more charts and all of the raw data from which the charts were derived.

We will see in November how the trends continue, which areas are being suppressed, and whether or not Fade and Cache return to the report.