Tag Archives: Summer Movie League

Summer Movie League – Incredible

Here we are at week four of our special rules Summer Fantasy Movie League and… well…

I’m actually away. So there is no score summary or lineup review this week.  But I am sure The Incredibles dominated the box office.  I doubt things went down hill from an $18.5 million Thursday night preview.  I might have considered a Friday/Sunday lineup with that bit of knowledge.  But I stuck with my Monday Hot Picks league lineup, 2x Saturday, 1x Deadpool 2, 5x Hotel Artemis.

This week we have Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

I have to admit that I am not really a fan of the Jurassic Park follow on movies.  Dinos been done since the first one for me; we don’t need this to turn into a CGI Land Before Time length series.  However I am something of an outlier on that front as, when I am writing this, the forecast is for a $130 million box office take, which would boost it well beyond Solo: A Star Wars Story.

But The Incredibles 2 is still on the scene and might be big enough to reign in the dinos a bit.

Meanwhile, one of the problems I thought might occur with an early lock time seems to be coming to pass; people are forgetting to make their picks in time.  Six out of 22 didn’t make the cut in time.  My own habit is to make an initial pick on Monday night and copy it to all the leagues, so at least if I forget or get distracted, I have something.  And, as noted, I stuck with my Monday night pick this week.

Anyway, if you’re looking for some insight on the coming week, check the TAGN league chatter channel on FML where Po often examines the week in detail.

My goal for this week is to find a decent signal or some WiFi so I can make my picks on my phone.  My stretch goal is to add a picture from my current location to this post from the WP.com app.

Make your picks soon!  The league locks in less than 24 hours from when this post goes live.

Summer Movie League – Hotel Arsonist

Week two of the Summer Fantasy Movie League and we get to see how the first eagerly awaited title of the season came along.

It was an interesting mix this week with a variety of anchor choices both old and new to choose from.  The lineup looked like this:

Ocean's 8               $626
Hereditary              $219
Solo                    $218
Deadpool 2              $201
Hotel Artemis           $138
Avengers: Infinity War  $93
Adrift                  $89
Book Club               $67
Upgrade                 $32
Life of the Party       $31
Breaking In             $24
Overboard               $16
A Quiet Place           $16
Action Point            $15
RBG                     $11

Ocean’s 8 was the big new title for the week, and while not expected to be a blockbuster, it was clearly set to top the week.

After that there was a range of options from the new slow burn horror film Hereditary, to multi-week retreads Deadpool 2 and Solo, to Hotel Artemis… which is referenced in this week’s title.

Yeah, things did not go well for Hotel Artemis this week.  While priced to exceed The Avengers it in fact was much closer to Upgrade in value when the final numbers, making it about $80 over priced.

Fortunately for me, I was in no way tempted by Hotel Artemis.  Likewise I was down on Solo as well.  That was not going to be my anchor.  Instead I was juggling around options with Ocean’s 8, Hereditary, and Deadpool 2 looking for the right mix.

As I said in last week’s post, for the Monday Hot Takes league I was in on Hereditary largely due to Liore’s enthusiasm for it.  However, as the week went on my enthusiasm for the title waned and I was weighing Ocean’s 8 versus Deadpool 2.  Eventually I split the difference, and for the TAGN league I anchored on Deadpool 2 while I used an Ocean’s 8 lineup in another league.

With three screens of Deadpool 2 I had enough room for four screens of The Avengers and one of Breaking In.  That was my choice.

Summer Movie League – My Week One Pick

And then the perfect pick ended up being anchored on Solo.

Not that my lineup was horrible.  Without bonuses it was the 7th best lineup possible.  But Solo was the anchor for the top lineup, which was 2x Solo and 6x The Avengers, both with and without bonuses.

That left the scores for the week looking like this:

  1. Goat Water Picture Palace – $74,929,344
  2. Wilhelm’s Abyssal Pocket Playhouse – $72,843,102
  3. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex – $72,531,960
  4. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics – $70,582,538
  5. I HAS BAD TASTE – $67,754,584
  6. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $67,524,560
  7. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $67,243,494
  8. Too Orangey For Crows – $66,626,858
  9. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $65,429,411
  10. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema – $65,429,411
  11. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $64,018,260
  12. Bean Movie Burrito – $62,986,713
  13. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex – $62,969,256
  14. Ben’s X-Wing Express – $62,969,256
  15. Kraut Screens – $62,896,688
  16. grannanj’s Cineplex – $56,064,376
  17. aria82’s Cineplex – $55,104,817
  18. JHW’s Cineplex – $27,370,850
  19. Joanie’s Joint – $23,682,815
  20. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre – $21,856,990 (did not copy picks)
  21. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies – $20,978,053 (did not pick)
  22. DumCheese’s Cineplex – $10,480,818 (did not pick)

Goat got the perfect pick which, even without bonuses put him at the top of the list for the week, while my 7th best got me into second.

The top half of the list was a mix of picks anchored on Solo, Hereditary, Deadpool 2, and Ocean’s 8.  The pricing on those was good enough to keep a variety of picks competitive in the no bonuses game.

Hotel Artemis however.  Joanie’s Joint was all in on Hotel Artemis and paid the price.  A tough week for Jodie Foster fans.

And then there is DumCheese.  At first glance I thought he picked this week, his lineup being 2x Upgrade and 6x Action Point.  It took me a bit to realize that this was his pick from last week which had rolled over.  It just looked different because last week Action Point was the anchor while this week it had been devalued so much that Upgrade was worth more.  Strange days.

So into the second week the overall lineup looks like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Abyssal Pocket Playhouse – $145,366,336
  2. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex – $143,454,008
  3. Goat Water Picture Palace – $137,953,188
  4. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $137,479,475
  5. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema – $134,307,401
  6. Too Orangey For Crows – $133,531,136
  7. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $132,363,247
  8. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics – $130,537,531
  9. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $128,707,980
  10. Ben’s X-Wing Express – $126,171,761
  11. Kraut Screens – $126,047,334
  12. Bean Movie Burrito – $125,552,918
  13. I HAS BAD TASTE – $125,226,763
  14. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex – $122,328,210
  15. aria82’s Cineplex – $121,483,595
  16. grannanj’s Cineplex – $118,611,195
  17. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $111,168,339
  18. Joanie’s Joint – $85,803,863
  19. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre – $78,851,830
  20. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies – $76,087,549
  21. JHW’s Cineplex – $69,480,658
  22. DumCheese’s Cineplex – $34,163,612

I have managed to hold on to first place… so still rigged… but the gap between me and the the middle of the pack is only $20 million, something a big week could make disappear with the right (or wrong) picks.  And speaking of big weeks, we are finally getting one.  Week three has a blockbuster anchor showing up, with the options as:

Incredibles 2 FRI       $521
Incredibles 2 SAT       $427
Incredibles 2 SUN       $350
Ocean's 8               $201
Tag                     $145
Solo                    $89
Deadpool 2              $78
Superfly                $71
Hereditary              $62
Avengers: Infinity War  $48 
Adrift                  $26
Book Club               $25
Hotel Artemis           $13
Upgrade                 $11
Life of the Party       $11

The Incredibles 2 is on the scene and split across three days as it is expected to bring in… more than Solo did on its opening weekend. Also new on the scene are Tag and Superfly.

All of that meant somebody had to get dropped, and so we say farewell for now to Breaking In, Overboard, A Quiet Place, Action Point, and RBG.

As for what to pick… well, as I have said in the past, if the pricing was perfect just spending your full $1000 budget would be enough.  But we know pricing is imperfect, some times comically so.

For this weekend you have to be at least seriously considering a lineup anchored on one day, if not two, of The Incredibles 2.  The long range forecast puts it at about $140 million for the weekend, with the FML split at 40%/33%/27% for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  So that could be $56 million for Friday, $46 million for Saturday, and about $38 million for Sunday.  But the forecast is imperfect and the split is imperfect, and the prediction for all the other features are imperfect.  It could hit $150 million and be heavy on Saturday because it is a kids film.

Your other anchor options are Ocean’s 8, which is probably good for about $20 million, and Tag, which looks awful (as do a lot of movies these days, but I’m a grumpy old man on that front) with had a forecast of $13 million last week.

Then there is a lot of expensive filler.  The new Superfly, a remake of the famed 70s blacksploitation flick, second to Shaft in my mind, but still a thing in its day, which looks to be good for $8 million, and is cheaper than Solo or Deadpool 2, which I gather FML thinks are both going to have a gentle drop this week.

And at the cheap end there is competing filler.  In the dollar difference race between Adrift and Book Club I might take Book Club, while in the low end race between Hotel Artemis, Upgrade, and Life of the Party, I’d probably take Upgrade over Life of the Party, but Hotel Artemis might be correctly priced this week after last week’s debacle.

My Monday Hot Takes league pick this week is 2x Incredibles SAT, 1x Deadpool 2, 5x Hotel Artemis., which leaves me $3 to spare.  We’ll see if I change my mind on that before Thursday morning rolls around.

Go make your picks!  The league locks in less than 24 hours after this post goes live.

Summer Movie League – Action Punt

For the launch of the Summer Fantasy Movie League the first week out was not all that exciting.

The alleged season of blockbusters did not have anything big and new for us.  There were three new films, but none of them were expected to dominate, so it became a week of mix and match to try and find the optimum pick.  The list of options included:

Solo                    $514
Deadpool 2              $325
Adrift                  $215
Avengers: Infinity War  $167
Action Point            $143
Book Club               $126
Upgrade                 $62
Life of the Party       $49
Breaking In             $36
Overboard               $30
Show Dogs               $25
A Quiet Place           $21
Best of the Rest        $19
RBG                     $15
Rampage                 $7

On the anchor end of things, the question seemed to be whether or not Solo would collapse gently after a disappointing opening weekend, or if that lack of fan enthusiasm would continue to haunt it and cause a sharper fall.

Up against it was Deadpool 2 in its third week.  While an R-rating holds back its potential audience, it seemed likely to hold on a good chunk of the weekend, and you could get two screens of it.

And then there was Adrift, an ominous name for a film of uncertain potential, or possibly The Avengers.  You could also get five screens of The Avengers, or six screens of Action Point.  But that last seemed a big unknown.

After some hemming and hawing about Solo, I decided that two screens of Deadpool 2 was going to be my choice.  And I actually decided that very early in the week.

Due to the changes at FML, allowing leagues to set their own rules, I am now in a variety of leagues, including Liore’s Monday Hot Takes league, which locks on Tuesday at noon. (Wednesday last week, due to the Monday holiday.)  So I wanted to get a lineup for that set.

With two screens of Deadpool 2, my filler options were limited.  On a whim, I filled up with five screens up Upgrade, another new film this week, and something of a wild card, with estimates all over the place, filling in the last slot with a screen of Breaking In.

That set on Tuesday night, I copied it to all my other leagues… and then stopped paying attention.  It was a busy week at the office, forecasts were slow in coming and were not very solid, so I saw no reason change my early lineup and left it there until everything locked on Friday morning.

Which turned out to be a pretty good plan, as I came in first in all of the private leagues to which I belong.  It wasn’t a huge victory.  I ended up ahead by just a bit in all of them.  But a win is a win.

Deadpool 2 turned out to be the anchor of the week, and the perfect pick for normal rules was 2x Deadpool 2, 1x The Avengers, 1x Book Club, 1x Breaking In, and 3x Rampage, the latter getting the best performer nod.  An odd perfect pick, with that many different titles.

However, with no bonuses in the TAGN league, best performer doesn’t mean anything.  Meanwhile, the mobile app will show you the perfect pick for the rule set your league follows and, as it turned out, with no bonuses, my lineup was the perfect pick.

Max score for me.  You may now declare the whole thing rigged, since I chose the rules.

Summer Movie League – My Week One Pick

But, as I said, I didn’t end up way out in front.  With the no bonuses rule, I did not get anything special, like an extra $5 million boost, for getting the perfect pick.  The rest of the league looked like this:

  1. Wilhelm’s Abyssal Pocket Playhouse – $72,523,234
  2. Vigo Grimborne’s Medieval Screening Complex – $72,050,064
  3. Corr’s Carefully Curated Cineplex – $70,922,048
  4. Biyondios! Kabuki & Cinema – $68,877,990
  5. Too Orangey For Crows – $66,904,278
  6. aria82’s Cineplex – $66,378,778
  7. Po Huit’s Sweet Movie Suite – $64,838,687
  8. SynCaine’s Dark Room of Delights – $64,689,720
  9. Ben’s X-Wing Express – $63,202,505
  10. Kraut Screens – $63,150,646
  11. Goat Water Picture Palace – $63,023,844
  12. Bean Movie Burrito – $62,566,205
  13. grannanj’s Cineplex – $62,546,819
  14. Joanie’s Joint – $62,121,048
  15. Paks’ Pancakes & Pics – $59,954,993
  16. Darren’s Unwatched Cineplex – $59,358,954
  17. I HAS BAD TASTE – $57,472,179
  18. Aure’s Astonishingly Amateur Amphitheatre – $56,994,840
  19. Skar’s Movies and Meat Pies – $55,109,496
  20. Miniature Giant Space Hamsterplex – $43,924,845
  21. JHW’s Cineplex – $42,109,808
  22. DumCheese’s Cineplex – $23,682,794

No little colored letters now as we’re all in the same league.  There are still 22 players, as there were in the Meta League.   We added a few new players and a few came over from the MCats league to try out the early lock and no bonus fun.

The top six places went to people who anchored on two screens of Deadpool 2.  Then Solo and Deadpool 2 became viable, along with five screens of The Avengers, which anchored SynCaine’s lineup.

Dragging people down were some poorly performing filler.  As I expected, the Best of the Rest pick turned out to be a complete bust, and those who went with it suffered.

Adrift also didn’t hold up very well as an anchor.

Likewise, the new film Action Point disappointed and those carrying it felt the pain of its over optimistic price, especially DumCheese who was anchored on six screens of it.  I feel sorry for you man.

And so ended the first week.  I don’t even have to do two lists because the overall matches the weekly.  The scores are not that spread out, both because of a lack of bonuses, but also because it just wasn’t a big scoring week.  The perfect pick, with bonuses,  was just $79.5 million.

So on to week two and the choices it offers.

Ocean's 8               $626
Hereditary              $219
Solo                    $218
Deadpool 2              $201
Hotel Artemis           $138
Avengers: Infinity War  $93
Adrift                  $89
Book Club               $67
Upgrade                 $32
Life of the Party       $31
Breaking In             $24
Overboard               $16
A Quiet Place           $16
Action Point            $15
RBG                     $11

We shed Rampage and Show Dogs this week, as well as losing Best of the Rest as an option and added three new films to the list.

The big opener is Ocean’s 8, which I guess is the all women version of Ocean’s 11, once again demonstrating sexism in the workplace as the women have to do their heist with only 73% of the staff.

Actually, Ocean’s 8 takes place in the same universe as the Clooney helmed trio of 11, 12, and 13.  Sandra Bullock is Debbie Ocean, sister of Danny Ocean (Clooney), who is off to pull her own heist with an all female crew.  Given that my preference for this series has followed the rule of “the lower the number the better it is” Ocean’s 8 could be big, with forecasts running in the $40-50 million range.  You can have one screen of that.  Also, it is reported to be opening on limited screens on Wednesday night, so you might get some preview numbers for it on Thursday morning for the TAGN league, but they won’t count towards the weekend total.

Then there is a big gap in pricing to get to Hereditary, a new title opening this week and something in the horror genre, an area of film I always underestimate.  I need Liore to advise me on this.

After that we’re back to Solo.  Failing to make $30 million its second weekend out you have to ask whether it is due for a soft landing yet.  Are people going back to see it a second time?  Then there is Deadpool 2, now available as a four screen anchor package or something you can team up with other options.

And finally on the anchor list is Hotel Artemis, the third new item this week, featuring Jodie Foster as a nurse who runs a secret hospital for criminals.  I hope Debbie Ocean doesn’t need her services.

Down in the filler end of the list, there are a lot items with similar prices.  I would take Upgrade over Life of the Party, but I am not sure who will win out of the three way mix of Overboard, A Quiet Place, and Action Point.  And then there is RBG hanging in there at $11.

Since this post goes up on Wednesday I guess I can put my Monday Hot Takes league pick in, since that locks on Tuesday at noon Pacific.

This week I went with 4x Hereditary and 4x Life of the Party.

That is my Liore dedicated pick, because she says Hereditary is going to be big, and horror is her wheelhouse.  We shall see if I change that up for the TAGN league.

Get your picks in!  They’d due in less than 24 hours from when this posts!