MER and the Blackout

Somebody finally got back from vacation and pushed the button to generate the EVE Online Monthly Economic Report for July.

This is the first report that reflects the Blackout and the VNI nerf.  The tax increase didn’t go in until August 1st, so that will be for the next report.

Anyway, there is an obvious graph to jump into first, so here we go.

July 2019 – Top Sinks and Faucets over time

It is easy to see what day the Blackout began on that chart as the yellow NPC bounty payout line, already down considerably from previous changes this year, fell off a cliff, no doubt contributing to an actual reduction in overall ISK in the New Eden economy.

July 2019 – Sinks and Faucets

The total bounties for the last few months:

• July – 29.1 trillion
• June – 48.2 trillion
• May – 55.5 trillion
• April – 57.2 trillion
• March – 71.4 trillion
• February – 69.8 trillion

But where did it hit hardest?  Last month the top 11 regions, since I wanted to include Delve, sorted out as follows.

1. Branch – 4.90 trillion
2. Esoteria – 3.56 trillion
3. Detorid – 2.88 trillion
4. Insmother – 2.71 trillion
5. Deklein – 2.70 trillion
6. Cobalt Edge – 2.15 trillion
7. Fountain – 1.96 trillion
8. Tenal – 1.80 trillion
9. Perrigen Falls – 1.70 trillion
10. Period Basis – 1.67 trillion
11. Delve – 1.57 trillion

Delve was way down because the Imperium was deployed to the north and attacking structures in Tribute and Vale of the Silent.  And then came the Drifters and the start of the Chaos Era and we pulled back home.  Being at home put the Imperium back on top of the NPC bounties rankings.

July 2019 – NPC Bounties by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions for July were:

1. Delve – 4.71 trillion
2. Esoteria – 1.77 trillion
3. Branch – 1.61 trillion
4. Detorid – 1.23 trillion
5. Deklein – 1.22 trillion
6. Insmother – 1.10 trillion
7. Tenal – 1.1 trillion
8. Fountain – 1.06 trillion
9. Omist – 0.85 trillion
10. Feythabolis – 0.81 trillion

Delve is at the top again, but that number is still below even the April number, which included a the start of the deployment north to Tribute.

So the Chaos Era has hit NPC bounties, though there was a bit of a bounce back up at the end of the month.  August will show if things continue down that path or if null sec adapts.

Then there is the mining front.  Last month the top producing regions in ISK value mined were:

1. Esoteria – 3.31 trillion
2. Detorid – 1.84 trillion
3. Insmother – 1.78 trillion
4. Domain – 1.31 trillion
5. Branch – 1.25 trillion
6. Querious – 1,19 trillion
7. The Forge – 1.16 trillion
8. Fountain – 1.12 trillion
9. Sinq Laison – 843 billion
10. Metropolis – 829 billion

Delve was down in 22nd place with a mere 276 billion ISK.  Again, June had the Imperium deployed to the north, so economic activity was down.  But in July everybody was back home to face the Blackout.

July 2019 – Mining Value by Region – Bar Graph

Delve was resurgent, with Rorquals out using tech II mining drones to combat attacks on excavator drones.  The top ten regions for July were:

Delve – 5.77 trillion
Querious – 3.18 trillion
Esoteria – 2.61 trillion
Syndicate – 1.99 trillion
Fountain – 1.92 trillion
Etherium Reach – 1.77 trillion
Domain – 1.69 trillion
Malpais – 1.64 trillion
The Kalevala Expanse – 1.61 trillion
The Forge – 1.47 trillion

Numbers were up in some places, including high sec, which remains a safe mining haven, and down in others.  But was there more necessarily more mining in places like Domain or The Forge?  Maybe not.  Since mining isn’t an ISK faucet, it is valued via the market prices, which change over time.  And July saw mineral prices going up some more.

July 2019 – Economic Indices

While not up as sharply as in June, mineral prices continued to rise.  That raises the value of ore mined for the purposes of the MER and encourages more people to mine.

And then there is destruction.  The Blackout was premised on greater destruction happening.  And, overall, there was more destruction in New Eden.  The summary of all regions in June showed 38.28 trillion ISK in destruction, while July saw that rise to 40.73 trillion ISK, and increase of 2.45 trillion ISK.  But where did that destruction occur?

Last month the top regions were:

1. The Forge – 3.46 trillion
2. Detorid – 2.31 trillion
3. Sinq Laison – 1.69 trillion
4. Tribute – 1.58 trillion
5. The Citadel – 1.54 trillion
6. Black Rise – 1.37 trillion
7. Delve – 1.28 trillion
8. Placid – 1.11 trillion
9. Lonetrek – 1.10 trillion
10. Vale of the Silent – 1.10 trillion

The chart for July shows the new ranking.

July 2019 – Destruction Value by Region – Bar Graph

The top ten regions were:

1. The Forge – 2.81 trillion
2. The Citadel – 2.33 trillion
3. Detorid – 1.86 trillion
4. Delve – 1.78 trillion
5. Sinq Laison – 1.47 trillion
6. Domain – 1.31 trillion
7. Lonetrek – 1.29 trillion
8. Metropolis – 1.17 trillion
9. Providence – 1.03 trillion
10. Cache – 1.00 trillion

Delve is up, but that was expected with everybody home again.  What is interesting is that there are now more high sec regions on the list.  There were four last month, but six on the list in July.  You might credit this to the alleged war on high sec, or maybe the less well known structure war in high sec, which is a topic for another post, except that not all the high sec regions saw more destruction.  The Forge, home of Jita, was more than half a trillion in destruction.

It feels rather that destruction was more spread out in July, that the increase was the result of a wider spread skirmishes rather than the destruction of ratters and miners due to the Blackout.  And, of course, the reduction in mining and ratting seems to indicate that many players simply declined to undock due to the Blackout.

All of which leaves me bereft of big conclusions.  But that is to be expected I guess.  The Chaos Era changes modified player behavior, but will it stick or are we just in a transitional period while people adapt?  And while NPC bounties were down a lot, they remained mostly a null sec thing. Null sect saw 88.7% of the bounties in July, compared to 93.6% in June.

June vs. July bounty payout ratio by space type

For August we will have to see how the trend continues, along with what the change in tax rate does.  Plus we still have the coming cyno changes and something about wormholes that has some people freaking out, plus other things mentioned during the Fanfest Home keynote, which may impact the September MER.  We shall see.

Anyway, all the data and charts are available to download from the MER Dev Blog.  In addition, CCP has also introduced a Monthly Security Report about how many people they have banned and what they were banned for.

Also looking at the July MER:

• The Nosy Gamer
• Imperium News (many custom graphs)